Reserves may dry up in six months

Calculations of the Government that accumulated in the Reserve Fund of funds sufficient for at least 2-2,5 years, may not be justified. In March - the first month, when the state printed its primary «zanachku for a rainy day», the size of the Reserve Fund fell by 750 billion rubles., Or by one sixth. The crisis could lead to a deepening budget deficit, which will destroy the plans of the authorities to reduce the monthly exemptions from the fund.

The economic crisis has not only led to polutorakratnomu excess federal budget expenditures over income, but also to the need to close the hole formed in gosfinansah from the contingency fund. On Wednesday evening, the Ministry of Finance reported that in March the size of the fund fell by 750 billion rubles. - From 4,869 to 4.117 trillion. rub.

In other words, for the first month of use of the contingency fund the country declined by 15.4%, which is almost one-sixth of the previous volume. If you continue to spend its previous rate, the fund may dry up for six months.

Much economical power spent another part of the former Stabilization - National Welfare Fund (FNB). In March, its volume decreased to 85.71 billion rubles. - From 2.995 to 2.915 trillion. rub., that is about 3%.

The new version of the budget for this year's revenues projected at 6.7 trillion. rub. and expenses - 9.6 trillion. rub. To cover the deficit of $ 2.9 trillion. rub. from the contingency fund is planned to attract 2.7 trillion. rub., including 1.6 trillion. rub. - In the first half. To invest in these figures, the Government will seriously reduce the expenditure of the Reserve Fund in the coming months. While the MOF plans, which in April will be withdrawn from the fund of 600 billion, and in May - 400 billion rubles. In the future, according to government estimates, the need for fueling of the Reserve Fund should fall even more. The authorities hope that in the second half of the economy, and with it the income of revenue will start to recover, thereby reducing the current budget deficit.

However, expectations that the gap between revenue and expenditure budget will be reduced previously assumed in the calculation of rates, melting with each passing day. Two weeks ago, Vice Premier, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said that the peak of the crisis is likely to move from the middle of this year, at the end or beginning of next year. Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance reported that the budget deficit in 2009 could reach 2.9 trillion is not. And more than 3331 trillion. rub. So the need for additional withdrawals from the Reserve Fund or to seek alternative sources cover the budget deficit can only increase. It is highly likely that if such a scenario, by 1 January 2010 in the Reserve Fund will be no 1867 trillion. rub. how the government plans, but much smaller. That is, a country can proest their primary zanachku faster than the government expected.

Do not especially believe in the enforceability of budget calculations, and interviewed «NG» Experts. According to chief economist FC «Opening» Danila Levchenko, a deficit budget into 2009 will be higher than projected, and then all the numbers will change for the worse.
Send by mail
Printable version
Bookmark
Discuss (25)
Add to LiveJournal

«Hope for the government improve the situation of the budget incomes in 2009 may be associated with some increase in world oil prices, which in the case of preserving them at current levels - about $ 50 a barrel, should lead to an increase in oil and gas revenues», - said zamrukovoditelya Analytical Department, LLC «Sovlink» Olga Belenky. At the same time, according to her, no less important is the situation with regard to economic activity and income of companies. According to the expert, after the collapse promproizvodstva and investment in the November-January, February and March rate of fall slowed. «However, the decline is not over. Moreover, if the economy pulls before consumer demand, in February he had begun to decline, as decline in real income, only partly offset by spending personal savings », - says Belenky. «Crisis measures taken by the State may withhold from the bankruptcy of major companies and banks, but did not reach the primary objective - do not support the final demand in the economy. And without that budget revenues may extend only to external factors, such as energy prices, the prices of which we do not