Friday, April 24, 2009

ANZ Bank: do not rely on a steady increase in Australian dollar

Australian currency yesterday, still managed to continue its recovery, and while achieving the bulls are quite modest, they do not lose hope for the continuation of the offensive. However, according to currency strategists ANZ Bank, they should not deceive ourselves too. The bank noted that the news about the M & A transactions involving Australian companies have recently been positive for the national currency (approx. ProFinance.ru: in particular, yesterday, she provided support to reports of a possible transaction between Lion Nathan Brewing Company and Japan's Kirin Holdings) but they are encouraged to draw attention to the fact that the real effect on the Australian dollar may be less severe than some people think the market participants. ANZ Bank strategists point out that at present the potential M & A transactions involving companies in Australia is around A $ 37 billion, but it is likely that cash transactions for those transactions will be limited to A $ 7.5 billion, given current economic conditions. Thus, the bank does not expect the cash flows associated with the M & A will have a visible support for the Australian dollar, which remains vulnerable to new attacks worry investors. In the ANZ Bank, meanwhile, also expect that the continued deterioration of the situation in Australia will make the RBA to make a further reduction in rates, bringing the level of key rates by the end of the quarter will be 2.75% by the end of the next 2.50%, and by December will reach 2.00%, and remain in the ranks of the bears on the Australian dollar, forecasting its decline to $ 0.66 by the end of June, to $ 0.63 by the end of September and to $ 0.59 by the end of this year.

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