Saturday, April 25, 2009

What exactly hang ... in DORah?

In the early 90-ies, with full and compelling circumstances repeatedly depreciated deposits, located in the only available time for the people of the bank - Sberbank USSR.

Patches in the flurry fracture
The beginning of the nineties. In the flurry of political and economic change, desperately kuvyrkayas in the waves is no longer the restructuring and turnaround general, the authorities in trying to catch up with the rapidly escaping inflation and at least appease the population before the next elections, the legislature tried to save deposits and patches so if you do not deserve love, although confidence of depositors. Start the Soviet Union created a Presidential Decree of 22 March 1991, in which «in connection with lump-sum increase in retail price» for spetsschet credited to each account for 40% of his balance. Then five more laws, the Constitutional Court's decision, economists are right (on the political orientation) compete with the left ...

In 1998, the head Duma Communist father and establish abbreviation Dor - Debt Ruble. Over the past 5 years, Dor became the mystical way is the U.S. dollar *. However, opportunities and unresolved problems still remain in place, but the anger and frustration of Russian investors have reached dangerous (especially before the elections) limit.

Himself as Zorkaltseve see ...
What's the problem? Not in principle, but in the figure. Nobody disputes, debt is debt. Moreover, the duty of the Savings Bank was legally defined as a state, which must be returned to their own populations. But ... The required amount of 8 trillion rubles current is clearly below the horizon today (dare say, and tomorrow's) capabilities. The author is not without a double pleasure to discuss this topic with one of the authors Doran, Chairman of the State Duma, member of the Communist Party, Mr (maybe more correct - Comrade?) Victor Zorkaltsevym live program «Business Moscow». Not without pleasure - as if it were not for the format of the program, everyone could agree with the arguments of the opponent: on the one hand, the debts should be given, but on the other - is not economic suicide by the state.

The argument that the current state is not responsible for the Bank of the Soviet Union was just as unconvincing as the counter that you can pay the debts of «free» lands, medicines, and apartments. Obviously - real smooth for the entire population (after all, not all people onye depositors) ways to be seen. Moreover, given the universal law of conservation, such a path could not be otherwise. After all, to give means one stripped of the society, it is necessary to rob the other, nothing wrong.

But many calls and letters from real, rather than statistical depositors of Sberbank, the elderly, sick and desperate, diarrhea who spoke on the subject, and those who were not in office is silent, who promises, and even those who do not promise, - encourage mentally twist this problem from different sides, trying to find a weak spot in a circular monolith restrictions.

Prosummirovannye dead souls
As we talked, the essence of the problem - not in principle, but in the figure. We do not have any formal query text Government Sberbank about balances in deposits in 1992, neither the text of the answer, so it will rely on the communication media and common sense. According to published data, balances the Savings Bank in 1992 amounted to 315 billion rubles then. It all started. We will not argue, but think that the most likely asked the Savings Bank - this is what the balance. And that it was necessary to ask? What is the balance of net balances of the accounts on which there was no movement in the past, say, ten years!

Sberbank - the successor and heir to the savings bank - is proud of its more than 160-year history. Unsecured bank accounts are stored, converted, indexed and recorded on the balance sheet «forever». It is easy to assume that, in accordance with a given issue in the said Savings Bank «evil» sum into account all of the early stories. And that history was? The revolution of 1917 (by a strange whim or the personal interest of the Bolsheviks had removed all but the savings bank accounts), stripping millions of «enemies» in 30 years, the war, the mop-45-50-ies, the emigration of the 80's, the disintegration of the USSR in the 90 -s ... Millions of accounts have lost the owners, is not inherited, but listed on the balance sheet, ie prosummirovannye. Prikinem, but that theoretically could be, what could be the right answer to the right question? The current Russia (140 million) could actually be around 30-40 million accounts - hardly noticeable anymore. The average account was 1500 rubles - the figure has been given and is similar to the truth. Then the real balances of the accounts will make a real 45-60 billion rubles. That is clearly not consistent with the stated figure of 315 billion. Do not think that the Bank and the Government did not know, but trump nepodemnoy the amount of debt, they find reasons not to give anything.

As a token we forgive our debtors
So, suppose we have reduced debt by 5-7 times, now, let's say, not today's 8 trillion rubles, and 1-1.5, it all? Let's try to go further. Today's Duma experts suggest that at least 20-30% of the accounts since 1992 have lost their owners and heirs, and therefore the debt can be further reduced. Therefore, the actual converted 0.7-1 trillion debt? I admit it, but what was because of this garden city - still nepodemno, even if all our assumptions are correct. Therefore turn to the most important. Change the (only for this situation), the vector relationship «Bank-Client» and re-form (only for this case) a database pre-reform Sberbank deposits are no longer in its archives, but claims of depositors, those and only those who give such a statement. Thus solve the standard banking procedures on the social, ethical and psychological components. Why social? Because only need (literally - have a need) in a real revival of their accounts shall be so informed. Why Ethical? Because each owner savings will decide for himself where his place - among the weak, who need help, or strong, who are ready to help. Why is psychological? Because there is a wonderful (and true) excuse explained citizenship of each, and society as a whole. Maybe better than most шикарно to forgive the debt than to live in horror at what you do not give? What is remarkable, but also the noble task for specialists in political strategists!

The noble renunciation of the debt can be (though - if you want) and push played, for example, among the bills objectors tempting lottery. For example, 100 prizes of $ 1 million each. What will it give? First, if you do everything right - no less than (in our opinion) than 10-fold decrease in the amount of debt. That is, from the $ 1 trillion. rubles descend to 100 billion, is about $ 3 billion - the amount is big, but the payment has absolutely real - because at $ 15-17 billion of foreign debt in the year of pay.

Second, suppose we were mistaken, was not $ 3 billion and $ 6 billion, $ 12 billion, even more (which is unlikely) - is not afraid, we have a complete real popular base of accounts. Divide them into groups - the primary account holder, the heirs of Russian citizens living abroad, wealthy citizens, insisted on his right pull out due to his piece. For each group, their time frame - one today, another tomorrow, the third - during the week. You say this is not the law?

And it's true, but the laws are created by real life, and if today this extraordinary reality, then, must be an emergency law for the payment of pre-reform deposits.

Only the first, let us all, find out how much exactly ...



Eugene Sokolinsky

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