By the end of 2008, the euro may decline to a level 7 hryvnia at the rate of NBU

The final GDP growth year on year in the United States for 4 months of 2006 amounted to 2,5%. During the first quarter of 2007 GDP growth rate amounted to U.S. 0.7%, the second - 3,8% in the third - 0.8%. According to preliminary data, in the fourth quarter of 2007, the GDP growth rate amounted to U.S. 0.6%. The revised and final data on U.S. GDP for the 4 quarter of 2007 we will receive at the end of February and March this year respectively. However, preliminary data for the 4 quarter of 2007 show a second consecutive slowdown in GDP growth, which is the formal confirmation of the existence of a recession in the United States.

The last recession in the United States occurred in 1990 and 2001. Each of them was 8 months. Only the post-war period (since 1945) in the United States had 10 recessions with an average of 10 months. The minimum duration of a recession 6, maximum - 16 months. Assuming that at this point in the United States there is a recession, and it had started in November 2007, the end of a recession will occur in early summer 2008 - February 2009. After this period should be expected to increase the American stock market, higher growth rates of Ukrainian stock market and restore the positions of the U.S. dollar in the FOREX market against other currencies, in particular the euro.

Nikolay Ivchenko, the head of information-analytical center "Forex Club": "Given that the U.S. economy is in recession and its completion should be expected no earlier than the third quarter of this year, the euro even quarter or two will not surrender their positions in the foreign exchange market and will be in the range 1,4500-1,5000, but it is possible achievement levels, and 1.5300. In Ukraine corridor official NBU rate fluctuations will be not less than UAH 727-751. for 100 euro, but the likely level of achievement, and 766 hryvnia for 100 euro. Late in 2008, is likely to take place under the sign of the U.S. dollar and the euro may decline to 1.4000 or 700 hryvnia for 100 euro at the rate of the NBU. "

Note: The authorities in the United States define recession as a significant decline in economic activity throughout the economy, lasting more than a few months, which results in reducing the rate of real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales. Data on the beginning and end of recessions in the United States represents the official U.S. body - the National Bureau of Economic Research. Historically, a recession in the U.S. coincides with a recession in 73 countries around the world.