In the April issue of the journal «Sun» published an article by Basil Yakimkina «FOREX: New technology trade». In it the author develops the idea that decisions in the foreign exchange market created solely under the influence of market sentiment. However, the author of the book «The financial dealings» not all can accept.
Do not confuse small with heavyweight players
I beg to differ c B. Yakimkinym in some assertions, while aware that his knowledge and experience in financial markets suggest a high competence. The main theme article is that, working in small investment horizons, or engaging in intraday trade, to predict the future price of the selected asset is very difficult, even in the short term. According to the theory of reflexivity by George Soros, the smaller the magnitude of the projected market, the less he is subject to the theory of classical analysis. And here in the first coming on the market psychology of the game, knowledge of stock market game, understanding the psychology of the crowd, etc. And when they say that after a certain perturbation in the market for the newly formed Movement adjoins a huge mass of speculators (small-scale private investors), and they find themselves without suspecting, pushing the market even further, it raises the first question. Let's remember who is the main market participants FOREX? First, it is the largest private bank with billions of turnover. Secondly, the central states, ie, structures that have enormous resources and capabilities. The third is investment funds (IF), which also manages hundreds of billions of dollars. Next on ponderousness - big companies and corporations that are active international trade and is constantly in need of foreign currency (often working in the market through authorized banks).
And last, the largest group - private investors, but their combined funds do not allow much to influence the course of bidding. Therefore, even if all private traders at the same time begin to operate with a single asset at the same time interval, their actions will not be so significant as any, even a very weak currency intervention, such as Bank of Japan.
On the structure of the
It should be borne in mind that any commercial bank or IF has svom staff of professional traders who work at the expense of the organization, with different investment horizons. The structure and strategy of major market participants fairly uniform, but try to be her primary structuring. One of the players focused on the small strategic objectives, ie simply «pips», on the difference in earning a few points, but are attracting enough big money and having the opportunity to enter the market for several times (even tens of times) a day. In this way the result is a good profit.
Another big part is holding the position for several hours or days. And sure there are strategic investors, retain the position for weeks and months. Therefore, if a serious and major player decided to play a large amount of funds for short money, I dare suggest - an employee of the same Bank (Fund), holds a long position will be informed of upcoming operations, and it would not be surprised by a surge in the market initiated by its partners.
He can close his position, if it is not in the same direction as the emerging motion to reopen bidding after the more profitable levels. But most importantly, there are others, such as major banks and IF, which at the same time wishing to open a position in the opposite direction. In other words, break a bet of another bank. Therefore, the fight will be run continuously, and as willing to stand on one side of the barricades, and on another, will always be enough for any investment horizons, they would not have worked.
Psychology - is not a decisive factor
I think that the most effective factor in the market has dispersed, are zones of foot, applications for the purchase and sale. When their massive burst starts surge in the market. But it is rather technical factor, after which already included the psychological factors associated with the behavior of bidders in the market. However, the main conclusion of the author, with whom we can not accept, however that the constant struggle of technical, fundamental and psychological factors, in the end, the final stage of ending the dominance of the latter.
Do not confuse small with heavyweight players
I beg to differ c B. Yakimkinym in some assertions, while aware that his knowledge and experience in financial markets suggest a high competence. The main theme article is that, working in small investment horizons, or engaging in intraday trade, to predict the future price of the selected asset is very difficult, even in the short term. According to the theory of reflexivity by George Soros, the smaller the magnitude of the projected market, the less he is subject to the theory of classical analysis. And here in the first coming on the market psychology of the game, knowledge of stock market game, understanding the psychology of the crowd, etc. And when they say that after a certain perturbation in the market for the newly formed Movement adjoins a huge mass of speculators (small-scale private investors), and they find themselves without suspecting, pushing the market even further, it raises the first question. Let's remember who is the main market participants FOREX? First, it is the largest private bank with billions of turnover. Secondly, the central states, ie, structures that have enormous resources and capabilities. The third is investment funds (IF), which also manages hundreds of billions of dollars. Next on ponderousness - big companies and corporations that are active international trade and is constantly in need of foreign currency (often working in the market through authorized banks).
And last, the largest group - private investors, but their combined funds do not allow much to influence the course of bidding. Therefore, even if all private traders at the same time begin to operate with a single asset at the same time interval, their actions will not be so significant as any, even a very weak currency intervention, such as Bank of Japan.
On the structure of the
It should be borne in mind that any commercial bank or IF has svom staff of professional traders who work at the expense of the organization, with different investment horizons. The structure and strategy of major market participants fairly uniform, but try to be her primary structuring. One of the players focused on the small strategic objectives, ie simply «pips», on the difference in earning a few points, but are attracting enough big money and having the opportunity to enter the market for several times (even tens of times) a day. In this way the result is a good profit.
Another big part is holding the position for several hours or days. And sure there are strategic investors, retain the position for weeks and months. Therefore, if a serious and major player decided to play a large amount of funds for short money, I dare suggest - an employee of the same Bank (Fund), holds a long position will be informed of upcoming operations, and it would not be surprised by a surge in the market initiated by its partners.
He can close his position, if it is not in the same direction as the emerging motion to reopen bidding after the more profitable levels. But most importantly, there are others, such as major banks and IF, which at the same time wishing to open a position in the opposite direction. In other words, break a bet of another bank. Therefore, the fight will be run continuously, and as willing to stand on one side of the barricades, and on another, will always be enough for any investment horizons, they would not have worked.
Psychology - is not a decisive factor
I think that the most effective factor in the market has dispersed, are zones of foot, applications for the purchase and sale. When their massive burst starts surge in the market. But it is rather technical factor, after which already included the psychological factors associated with the behavior of bidders in the market. However, the main conclusion of the author, with whom we can not accept, however that the constant struggle of technical, fundamental and psychological factors, in the end, the final stage of ending the dominance of the latter.
Dmitri Moiseyev,
Leading Analyst Darrington Holdings
Leading Analyst Darrington Holdings
No comments:
Post a Comment