Monday, April 20, 2009

Headache Gaytnera - the dollar, not yuan

Criticism of American politicians to the Minister of Finance Timothy Gaytnera because he did not name China currency manipulator, sounds, to say the least, absurd. Perhaps, Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, the last 12 months did not read newspapers. Now that the interest rate in the United States is equal to zero, the government plans to issue state. bonds in the trillions of dollars, as well as to fund the massive operation to rescue the business at the expense of taxpayers' money, China, compared with America looks small speculators. Memo to Grehama and his colleagues: Your economy has lost the moral standards, it falls and pulls in the entire world. This harsh truth, which becomes even more apparent when the dollar falls, paying as a result, a high price for the Government's ultra-easy monetary and fiscal policies. There is no doubt that China manipulates its currency. This is known to all, including Gaytnera. He explicitly stated this during the January meetings. Also, everyone knows that a stable yuan helps keep the U.S. financial system. Foreign exchange reserves of China in the $ 2 trillion dollars is nothing, as the result of manipulation of the yuan. Disclaimers Gaytnera from accusations of currency manipulation in China due to pragmatic considerations. He is well aware of the precarious situation of the dollar on the world stage. ? I can not wait for an immediate collapse. However, I am of the Bear prognosis in the long run, because the Fed, obviously, will continue to destroy their balance sheets? - Analysts believe LGT Bank in Liechtenstein. The main difference between the U.S. and China on this issue - this is the motive. Celestial manipulates its currency in small domestic purposes, while supporting their exporters. States of manipulating its currency unconsciously. The result is the same.

China's obsession

Obsession with China and its uncompetitive exchange rate at the moment is probably benefit the United States, rather than harm. If the yuan strengthened American automotive customers will not be able to sell Chinese cars more, since a strong currency in the context of the current world economic climate keeps the growth of the third-largest economy, and thus weaken consumer activity. Around the world, the rotating around the G, is easy to forget that today, China's economy more than the German and British. Even despite the fact that many view China with its low living standards, as global production sites, the significance of the national economy increased many times. Of course, China can not be described as an ideal locomotive for the world economy, but at the moment do not have to choose. Traditional engine - United States - is dead. Therefore, it is difficult to maintain a good mine with a bad game, as the President of the Senate Finance Committee Max Bakus, and demand that China continues its reforms. The International Monetary Fund may urge China to modernize the financial system, exchange or release of more equitable trade. But the States in the midst of the campaign by printing new dollars, covered calls? Buy American? and sinking into recession has no moral right to such demands. Also, the U.S. now can not set a good example in terms of transparency. Protests aired nationwide on April 15, the day of payment of taxes, saying that the country is angry politicians, burn their own future. Nothing is more outraged taxpayers, as a matter of American International Group, which received 183 billion of public money and has spent a significant portion of the payment of bonuses. China's reserves are as much annoying American politicians for the simple reason that they give a sense of wealth in China. Yes, obschirnye reserves of China were very opportune moment. However, all these dollars on the balance sheet of the country, most of the weak rather than strong side. Nobel prize winner Paul Krugman calls it? Dollar trap of China ". The point is that the last appeal of China to establish an alternative to the dollar more similar to the pleading for help, rather than on economic-policy proposals. If the dollar collapses, China will lose a lot of money.

The problems of the dollar

Arguments of China, Russia and Arab countries to support the rejection of the dollar deserves attention. However, you will first need to address the stabilization of the world system, which, whether we like it or not, is pegged to the dollar. As soon as the situation normalizes, it will be possible to think about, how to destroy the old world to the ground?. Most likely in the near future, the question about saving the dollar, rather than its destruction. The decision of the Fed to lower interest rates to zero and to ensure a continuous flow of liquidity to the markets have not yet been able to provoke a collapse of the U.S. currency. Perhaps in the near future we are waiting for new volumes of liquidity is poured in to the markets of the Central Bank, and the new government loans. As soon as the U.S. economy starts to recover, historic steps taken to achieve such a result would benefit the dollar. Not that the U.S. would have been against the weakening dollar, since it has not gone beyond the reasonable. In 2008, there was no particular panic in the fall of the American currency. Most countries in the period of recession only welcome a more competitive rates. However, there is a risk of overly sharp drop in the dollar, which will shake the markets. Bulls set the reasonable question: If you do not like the dollar, what are you going to buy?? Reasonable question. Yen? Swiss Franc? Euro? All the options have drawbacks. However, the United States with an ever-increasing foreign debt is not all smooth. States are now actively preparing the ground for a devaluation of its currency. The fact that China does this purposefully, does not mean that in the long run it will be successful in the U.S. in this regard.



William Pesek


No comments: