Daily Markets - Financial News & Opinions |
| How China Price Fight Impacts Coal ETF Performance Posted: 03 Apr 2009 12:00 PM PDT One of the world’s largest consumers of coal is helping related exchange traded funds (ETFs) give off a little heat. China may increase the price of coal by 4% this year. This is because the government increased value-added taxes by coal producers this year to 17%, from 13% in 2008, reports Zhang Shidong for Bloomberg. Huaneng Power International, China’s largest electricity provider, has backed off its bid to cut contract coal prices, however. The move is an effort to speed up talks … [visit site to read more]  |
| Mark-To-Market Madness, Geithner Plan Shenanigans, The Economy And More Posted: 03 Apr 2009 10:00 AM PDT I’ve had a lot on my mind this week, and so has the market. Mark to market accounting … the Geithner plan … and the latest economic data have all been capturing the attention of investors. So I want to share my latest thoughts on all of these market drivers, and explain where we’re likely headed next … Mark to Market Accounting Mess Shows That Congress, Bankers Just Don’t Get It … This week, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) caved on the mark-to-market … [visit site to read more]  |
| GBP/USD Looking Bullish As It Bounces Off The Triple Support Posted: 03 Apr 2009 09:24 AM PDT Price action on GBP/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has displayed significant bullishness since the pair bounced up off the triple support provided by: the 1.4100 horizontal support level, a short-term uptrend channel support line, and a medium-term downtrend support line. Currently, price has moved up significantly within the short-term parallel uptrend channel, tentatively surpassing the recent 1.4775 swing high, and now appears to be targeting strong resistance right around the … [visit site to read more]  |
| Gold Falls Below $900 As It Nears 100 Day Moving Average Posted: 03 Apr 2009 09:13 AM PDT The party was really rocking, with free drinks provided by Nationwide, G20 and the FASB (the ECB promised to buy the next round). Then someone worked out the beer was alcohol free; it was all fizz and no body. A quiet end to the week for me. I tend not to deal ahead of US payrolls, though admittedly I missed a good trade in backing Sterling. I used the time wisely, hitting the gym for only the second time this week, then installing my new computer with all the extra work that … [visit site to read more]  |
| Calculating The Implied Volatility Of The VIX Posted: 03 Apr 2009 09:00 AM PDT Earlier today, a reader had an excellent observation and question regarding the implied volatility of the VIX (^VIX):  |
| Not Just A Price Floor, Treasury Programs May Be A Stable Foundation For Economic Recovery Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:40 AM PDT The U.S. Treasury’s much-maligned Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) and its new “prequel,” the Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP) have been viewed by the markets and skeptical prospective participants as merely a price discovery mechanism which, with a lot of luck, might create a floor under toxic security prices. Now, with markets showing signs of life, and relief from dreaded mark-to-market accounting rules passed yesterday (Thursday), the intended price … [visit site to read more]  |
| How Middle East And ETFs Rose Above Global Crisis Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:30 AM PDT It appears that Middle Eastern countries, and the exchange traded funds (ETFs) that track this volatile portion of the globe have been among the least affected from the global economic crisis. How? Despite lower oil revenues, cuts in oil input and an increase in crude supplies, the World Bank has pegged the oil exporting nations of the Middle East to grow at 2.9% in 2009, with oil averaging $47/barrel, states the Kaleej Times. This is in comparison to growth rates of 2.1% in the … [visit site to read more]  |
| USD/AUD Index: The Downside Prevails. Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:10 AM PDT Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]  |
| USD/CAD Index: The Downside Prevails. Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:10 AM PDT Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]  |
| Posted: 03 Apr 2009 08:00 AM PDT We are in a recession and the economy is looking very bleak. From accelerating job losses in many industries to the potential bankruptcy of GM there is a lot of bad news to digest out there. So this being what it is, why is the stock market rallying like nobodies business? The S&P 500 index (^GSPC) is up a whopping 23% since just March 9. The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article in the ‘Smart Money’ section of their website titled Dow 8,000 - 5 Reasons Driving The … [visit site to read more]  |
| Posted: 03 Apr 2009 07:29 AM PDT The US March employment numbers, out this morning, are bleak: 8.5 percent of Americans officially unemployed, 663,000 more jobs lost. But if you include people who are out of work and have given up trying to find a job, the real unemployment rate is 9 percent. And if you include people working part time who’d rather be working full time, it’s now up to 15.6 percent. One in every six workers in America is now either unemployed or underemployed. Every lost job has a multiplier effect … [visit site to read more]  |
| Forex Trading: AUD/USD Stalled Near Resistance Posted: 03 Apr 2009 07:28 AM PDT Price action on AUD/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has stalled and retreated around key resistance in the 0.7230-60 region. This occurs after price broke out strongly above a flag continuation pattern. The current resistance area is a highly valid support/resistance zone, as price has turned several times in this zone both in the recent and distant past. Therefore, if price breaks out substantially above it, bullish momentum should be strong, and could eventually … [visit site to read more]  |
| The “Man-Cession” Worsens: Jobless Rate Gap Of 2% Highest In History Posted: 03 Apr 2009 07:12 AM PDT According to today’s BLS report (Table A-1, Household Data), the U.S. economy has lost 5.76 million jobs since Dec. 2007. Further analysis shows that 79% of the job losses (4.551 million) were jobs held by males, compared to female jobs losses of 1,209,000, or 21% of the total (see top chart above). Of the 860,000 March jobs decline (household data), 84% of the job losses were male jobs (724,000), compared to a 136,000 job loss for females (16% of total). Further, the March … [visit site to read more]  |
| USD/CHF Index: The Downside Prevails. Posted: 03 Apr 2009 07:10 AM PDT Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]  |
| Posted: 03 Apr 2009 07:10 AM PDT Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]  |
| USD/GBP Index: Capped By A Negative Trend Line. Posted: 03 Apr 2009 07:10 AM PDT Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]  |
| USD/EUR Index: Key ST Resistance At 76.5. Posted: 03 Apr 2009 07:10 AM PDT Update on supports and resistances. … [visit site to read more]  |
| EUR/USD Falls Below 200-Hour Moving Average Posted: 03 Apr 2009 06:35 AM PDT The EUR/USD has moved below the first support level (200 hour MA). The level comes in currently at the 1.3383 level. The bias should be to the downside, with next target support coming in at the 1.3342 level. The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.3291 level. Will need volume and momentum to continue to pressure the pair. Other topside resistance at the 1.3397 (prior low for the day) and 1.3420 to 1.3425 area. Moves back above these levels, hurt the downward … [visit site to read more]  |
| A Total Of 5,133 Million Jobs Have Been Lost In The US Since January 2008 Posted: 03 Apr 2009 06:00 AM PDT The Manufacturing leads the way with 1,467 jobs lost since Jan 2008. Trade Transportation next weakest sector. Construction has lost 14% of jobs since January 2008. A total of 126,000 were lost this month, the 3rd worst on record. Goods Producing Jobs lost 305K jobs. Service producing jobs lost 358K continuing the trend of Service sector more weak than the manufacturing. Retail jobs fell by 47.8K. Temporary workers fell by 72K as that trend continues. Another … [visit site to read more]  |
| Japanese Yen Heads For Biggest Weekly Decline Against The Euro Since February Posted: 03 Apr 2009 06:00 AM PDT Markets are rather steady this (Friday) morning in beginning of European session as investors calmed down from higher than usual volatility driven by ECB and G20 yesterday. During the G20 Summit in London, the leaders showed unity and pledged a “global plan for recovery in developed countries as well as in emerging markets”. The plan includes repairing the financial system, promoting global trade and investment, credit-rating firms and risk-taking by banks, rejecting protectionism and … [visit site to read more]  |
| Crude Prices Still Choppy As Contango Continues Posted: 03 Apr 2009 05:33 AM PDT Already a choppy trading day in Crude oil this london morning, with very low volumes. It looks again today will be dominated by the weight of the financial markets. More fresh money, more sell side analysts calling for the bottom of oil prices and indeed we shall go higher. If there is anymore doubt to physical dynamics still looking poor, one only need to look at spreads of prompt vs 6 months out, in Crude oil and European heating oil. In the run up over the past 2 days, these spreads … [visit site to read more]  |
| US Non-Farm Payrolls Data Today: Does The Market Even Care? Posted: 03 Apr 2009 02:28 AM PDT Well, the latest edition of policy “shock and awe” was released yesterday (Thursday), with FASB adjusting the mark to market rules and the G20 promising a Dr. Evil-esque “one triiilllliiioonnnn dollars!” for the world economy. Markets were so excited that they barely noticed the disappointment from the ECB. Well, that’s not entirely true. The euro rallied sharply against the dollar (because in a 16 vol currency pair, an extra 25 bps makes the carry sooooooo much more attractive), and … [visit site to read more]  |
| G20 Summit: Reasons To Be Cheerful Posted: 03 Apr 2009 02:00 AM PDT Did the Summit succeed? This column argues that the G20 Summit is not the turning point, but it provides the strongest reason yet to be less pessimistic. The commitments may leave plenty of room for the devil to make mischief with, but it is hard to think what more the G20 could have done. Gordon Brown has pulled some large rabbits from his hat. The G20 summit will not mark a turning point in the path of this crisis; but it provides the strongest reason yet to be less pessimistic … [visit site to read more]  |
| USD/JPY Breaks The 100 Level For The Second Time Today Posted: 03 Apr 2009 02:00 AM PDT With the JPY being offered and softening up across the board for a majority of the session, the USD/JPY has broke the key 100 handle for the second time this session hitting a 100.17 high. Looking at the chart below, the pair is comfortably sitting above the 200 Day moving average now as yesterday the pair broke this indicator and closed the trading session just on the line. The USD/JPY has not closed well above this moving average since October 1, … [visit site to read more]  |
| Futures Outlook For Friday: S&P, Mini Dow Jones, Crude Oil Posted: 03 Apr 2009 01:56 AM PDT S&P 500 June Contract S&P again behaved perfectly, holding lower support at 807 and trading to 842. Buyers were happy and sellers didn’t really have to do much except defend 842. Now this morning there is scope for pullbacks with 825.52 your first short term retrace target. Buyers will be cautious at these levels, not knowing whether it will hold or not. Sellers will be looking for this to come lower and a break through to 818/816 is viable. Short covering and renewed buying … [visit site to read more]  |
| Forex Commentary: G-20 Make Promises But Will They Deliver? Posted: 03 Apr 2009 01:45 AM PDT The U.S. Dollar fell sharply lower after news leaked that the G-20 had decided on a financial aid package designed to rescue the weaker nations of the global community. The Dollar opened lower on expectations that the G-20 summit would provide a little clarity and conviction to a new plan to help revive the global economy. The Dollar extended losses against most major currencies throughout the day and especially after the release of the official announcement following the closing comments … [visit site to read more]  |
| Futures Outlook For Friday: FTSE, DAX, Eurostoxx Posted: 03 Apr 2009 01:45 AM PDT FTSE June Contract Ftse ramped higher yesterday with buyers not pausing for breath until finally sellers came out in force at 4119. However the downside was limited and this morning sellers are looking hopeful of a break lower so that yesterday’s opening gap to 3961 will be filled. Both sides would then be satisfied and would then expect buyers to take control and rally back to the highs of 4119 once more. You should see profit taking at these higher levels. Buyers will introduce longs if … [visit site to read more]  |
| G20 Summit Leaders Pledge $1 Trillion To Spur Global Recovery Posted: 03 Apr 2009 01:45 AM PDT The Group of 20 leaders yesterday (Thursday) agreed to collectively pledge more than $1 trillion in emergency aid amid a financial crisis that has plagued every corner of the world. G-20 said the International Monetary Fund would receive $500 billion to loan to troubling economies, and another $250 billion in special drawing rights. The IMF will also sell some of its gold reserves to channel funds into the world’s poorest countries. Other developmental banks - including the World … [visit site to read more]  |
| Global Investment News Briefs: US Mortgage Rate, GM, Copper, IBM, Oil Posted: 03 Apr 2009 01:30 AM PDT February Factory Orders Turn Positive; Fixed Mortgages at Record Low; GM Seeks Gov’t Money For Hybrids; Chile: Copper Prices Heading North; IBM Lowers Bid for Sun; Oil Surges 9% on Dollar Weakness U.S. factory orders rose in February, reversing six months of consecutive declines, the Commerce Department said. New factory orders rose 1.8% in February after dropping a revised 3.5% in January, Reuters reported. The 30-year fixed-mortgage rate dropped to 4.78%, a 30-year low, as the … [visit site to read more]  |
| Video: 04/03 A New Economic Order Posted: 03 Apr 2009 06:00 AM PDT President Obama warned that the world could not expect the United States to lead the economic recovery alone. … [visit site to read more]  |
| European Central Bank Continues Slashing Interest Rates Posted: 02 Apr 2009 10:00 PM PDT While the global economy dominated talks at London’s G-20 summit, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet continued lowering interest rates on Thursday, but said one of those rates has probably reached the floor. The ECB’s Governing Council lowered the bank’s benchmark interest rate 25 basis points to 1.25% - a rate Trichet said could be further lowered, albeit “in a measured way.” The ECB also lowered the deposit rate 25 basis points to 0.25%, an “extremely low level” that … [visit site to read more]  |
| Mark-To-Market Rules Eased - A Good Change For Banks Posted: 02 Apr 2009 07:28 PM PDT The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) today (Thursday) eased their guidelines on “mark-to-market” accounting, allowing companies to use their judgment in determining the “fair value” of their assets. The revised rules will make it easier for companies to avoid having to take impairment charges on their investments against earnings. The move comes after strong demand by the banks to relax the “mark-to-market” rules, which require companies companies to value assets at … [visit site to read more]  |
| Posted: 02 Apr 2009 07:25 PM PDT Today (Thursday), while the rally was in progress, Jim Cramer - bulls cheerleader - extraordinaire came onto CNBC for a brief stint and proclaimed that the “Depression” was over. Tonight when I was reviewing charts and looked at the action from today, it hardly screams “Depression over”. In fact, the trillions of dollars that are being printed out of thin air are going to create the largest bout of inflation that this nation has ever witnessed. To the extent that depressions are … [visit site to read more]  |
| Posted: 02 Apr 2009 07:20 PM PDT One of the regular features that Bloomberg provides to subscribers is its Chart of the Day column, which marries a graph produced using the functions available through the professional service with an article written by one of its editorial staff members. In today’s edition, “Bank Bondholders 'Losing Faith’ as Shares Surge: Chart of Day” [no link available], columnist David Wilson highlights the divergence between equity and fixed-income markets, a disparity that I’ve often made … [visit site to read more]  |
| Stock Rally Based On FASB Caving To Political Pressure Posted: 02 Apr 2009 07:17 PM PDT Is this rally based on good economic data; earnings news; the G-20; more regulation; higher taxes; more debt and bailouts? Hell no! This is about the FASB caving to political pressure to allow financial institutions to mark their toxic waste to a model fantasy. It’s plain for all to see so please put the BS aside. Now, I’m just a technician (no doubt with an attitude) and my job is to follow the dictates of the tape as best as I see it. Therefore, we’re long but, like I said yesterday, … [visit site to read more]  |
| Thursday’s Market Recap: Stocks Rally Strongly Posted: 02 Apr 2009 07:13 PM PDT The markets rallied strongly today with the NASDAQ up 3.29%. Both the Dow (^DJI) and S&P (^GSPC) were up closing at 7978.08 and 834.38 respectively. Price on the 10 year treasury was up and the yield was down, to settle at 2.759%. Oil was up today settling at $52.64, while gold contracts were down settling at $908.90. Dow Chemical (DOW) had a great day, up over 12%, after announcing today that it was going to sell Morton International to Germany’s K+G for $1.68 … [visit site to read more]  |
| The Outcome Of The G20 Summit: A Skeptic’s View Posted: 02 Apr 2009 07:13 PM PDT Did the Summit succeed? This column argues that, except for the promises of more resources for the IMF, the summit did not move the agenda forward. Doing more was probably impossible, but now national governments must do more at home, and very urgently. It would be a tragedy if the Summit outcome encouraged complacency. Jonathan Portes provides us with an articulate and elaborate presentation of the outcome of the G20 summit. This is the best that can be said about it, but is it the … [visit site to read more]  |
| The Bare Essentials Of The G20 Statement Posted: 02 Apr 2009 07:10 PM PDT If one wants to boil down the G-20 statement to its bare essentials, it was an endorsement of aggressive fiscal and monetary policies by governments in response to the crisis. It also called for much more rigorous regulation of financial institutions, not just banks. … [visit site to read more]  |
| Dear Mr. Greenberg: Stop Talking In Public Posted: 02 Apr 2009 07:10 PM PDT In “please stop talking you’re embarrassing yourself” news, Maurice Greenberg is once again beating the drum of “everything was great at AIG when I was there”. Apparently he wants us to pretend that he didn’t create the divisions, policies and strategies that destroyed the company, and put all the blame on his successor. This is not to say that his successors didn’t make any mistakes, but to point out that he seems to be of the opinion that there was nothing inherently wrong with AIG’s … [visit site to read more]  |
| Mixed Economic Signals From The US Posted: 02 Apr 2009 07:00 PM PDT The economic numbers we have been getting recently have been a mix of “awful but not quite as bad as feared” and “just plain awful.” Recently, the market has been paying more attention to the former than the latter. Auto sales came in yesterday at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 9.86 million, which - while well below the 16 million rate we regularly saw a few years ago - is a nice improvement over the 9.12 million SAAR in February. This morning, factory orders for February … [visit site to read more]  |
| RIMM Beats Earnings Estimates And Soars Posted: 02 Apr 2009 07:00 PM PDT Shares of Research In Motion (RIMM) were up more than 21% after the close on Thursday as the company reported fourth-quarter results that topped consensus estimates. We maintain our buy rating as the company continues to outperform all our benchmark parameters, in particular operating cash generation. The total net cash was $2.24 billion at the close of the company’s fiscal 2009 reporting period. Revenues for Q4 $3.46 billion, up 24.5% from $2.78 billion in the previous quarter … [visit site to read more]  |
| IMF Gold Sales Will Have No Impact On Gold Market Posted: 02 Apr 2009 07:00 PM PDT As part of the G20 Communiqué the leaders called on the IMF to sell gold to support developing countries. While spot gold was considerably weaker on this news, an examination of the statement illustrates the market’s fears are unfounded. From the communiqué:  |
| Video: 04/03 Pre Market: Jobs Report Posted: 03 Apr 2009 12:00 AM PDT The stories, data, and stocks that may have the greatest impact during the next trading session. … [visit site to read more]  |
| Video: 04/02 Oil Prices Soar On Dollar Weakness & Stock Market Rise Posted: 02 Apr 2009 06:54 PM PDT Front month crude prices managed to jump nearly 9% this session as a weaker dollar, stock market gains, and beliefs that the US economy may be near bottoming out have each overtaken investor sentiments. … [visit site to read more]  |
| Low Priced Value Stock Ideas: XO Holdings, Asta Funding, And More Posted: 02 Apr 2009 12:32 PM PDT A reader and I briefly discussed an idea over Twitter, one which looked promising by the numbers, but reading the 10-K brought up many questions. It ended up in the pass pile even though the valuation shows that it is trading at 61% to its liquidation price. That company is XO Holdings (XOHO). With net nets, and any other long holding, I prefer an easy to understand business. A business that can make money and produce free cash flow. I feel these two points are important if the company … [visit site to read more]  |
| Video: 04/02 Euro Rises On G20 & ECB Rate Cut Posted: 02 Apr 2009 03:38 PM PDT The euro managed to rise drastically this past trading session as a smallar-than-expected ECB rate cut and ongoing G20 summit weighed in heavily upon the investors. … [visit site to read more]  |
| Video: 04/02 G20 Reaches Agreement Posted: 02 Apr 2009 03:37 PM PDT G20 reaches agreement on stricter regulation and giving the IMF $1trillion to help the poorest countries. … [visit site to read more]  |
| Video: 04/02 Hang Seng Rises By 1,000 Points Posted: 02 Apr 2009 03:14 PM PDT The major Asian/Pacific markets managed to rise this session with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index leading the way with a gain of more than 1,000 points. … [visit site to read more]  |
| Posted: 02 Apr 2009 02:30 PM PDT It’s important for banks to price assets, says trader David Henderson, that is what investros want to see and it could have a big impact on the markets. … [visit site to read more]  |
| Video: 04/02 Rite Aid’s 4Q Losses Widen Posted: 02 Apr 2009 01:55 PM PDT Drug store operator rite aid (RAD) announced today that its 4Q losses managed to widen into the billions. A huge difference from the figures posted during the same time one year earlier. … [visit site to read more] |
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