Wednesday, April 22, 2009

The experts saw the first signs of stabilizing the U.S. economy

In recent times, started to show signs of gradual stabilization of the American economy. Of course, the full restoration of her to say it is too early, but some experts suggest that the recession the U.S. economy will end sooner than predicted, transmits Reuters.

So, start slowly to recover the production activity, and the financial statements of major banks have recently heartened investors. However, all these figures are based largely on data from surveys and studies, and the country is still in a recession - the largest since World War II.

"There is every reason to believe that the recession will end sooner than expected", - said managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Lakshman Akutan. Illustrates this point and the last statdannye: thus, at the end of last week, University of Michigan / Reuters published a report that the index of consumer confidence in the United States in April 2009. rose by 4.6 points - to 61.9 points. Analysts also predicted that the value will grow less significantly - to 58.5 points. In March of 2009. consumer confidence index was 57.3 points.

Also, gradually began to get out of the recession is the housing market: that of the National Association of Construction Companies (National Association of Homebuilders), performance improved significantly this month, indicating a gradual stabilization of the housing market. "It creates the feeling that the mood of Americans are gradually improving. I think soon they will start to increase their consumer spending," - said a leading economist of Insight Economics Steven Wood.

Meanwhile, emergency stabilization of the U.S. economy and shows the situation in the U.S. stock market. Shares of American companies are increasing for the sixth consecutive week. During this period of time stock indices had grown up on average by 20%, similar to the market participants. His role and the Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA: so, according to recent studies of American Central Bank, in recent months has begun a gradual increase in the productive sector.

Exceeded expectations of analysts and financial reports of major U.S. banks. Thus, the net profit of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in the I quarter of 2008-2009 fiscal year, which ended March 27 rose by 13% and amounted to $ 1659 billion JPMorgan Chase & Co. I got to the outcome of the quarter to $ 2.14 billion, while profit Bank of America over the same period rose to 4.25 billion U.S.

However, some experts note that the optimism of the market prematurely, and to stabilize the American economy - but the result of anti-crisis measures taken by the authorities. In particular, experts point to the continuing decline in retail sales and a drop promproizvodstva to 20% on the basis of I quarter 2009. "We all hope for a speedy economic recovery and even say that the U.S. GDP on the basis of III quarter will be positive," - noted MainStay Investments strategist Bill Knapp. In turn, Barclays economist Dean Maki added that the return to the old, pre-crisis, economic growth should not wait until.

However, while D. Mackie notes that the U.S. GDP on the basis of II quarter of 2009. can grow on average by 2% - largely due to anti-crisis measures authorities. "The American economy can podrasti due to the monetary policy of the Government", - said the expert. The only problem - the current global downturn and the fact that U.S. authorities can not control the economy of other states. If the countries of Europe and Asia will continue to worsen the recession, the early restoration of the American economy also is not worth waiting for, enter into the market participants.

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