Monday, April 20, 2009

Euro fell below the levels at which the day of publication of decision on early redemption Treasuries

Friday and Monday Euro-долар against the background of a news vacuum has continued to decline slowly, today was presented a minimum at around 1.2944. Thus, all the rapid growth of the euro on the basis of the last meeting of the Fed from 1.30 to 1.37 were blocked with a margin. Although the achievement of 1.37 marks from 1.30 marks took about one and a half days, the pair managed to come back down after 5 weeks. The fact that a pair of return below 1.30 suggests that we wrote the review after the meeting of the Fed: a rapid upward movement without volume was false, because it took place without the volume, it was the result of deliberate attacks on the news, designed to Zadran quotes as you can above. Now the quotes fell even lower than that on the day of publication of the Fed decision to initiate foreclosure Treasuries. Today, we believe, have worked the last foot evrovyh bulls. In our opinion, such a thorough "cleansing" bottom (contrary to our expectations), rather indicates that the euro-dollar will rise even higher mark of 1.42. We do not expect further fall in the pair. Absolute disregard for the Fed run the printing press and an immediate reduction in the area of minimum years of Euro-dollar speculative devoid of meaning. On the contrary, at a time when market expectations about the growth of the euro has already broken, we can expect growth in the euro volumes (as opposed to growth on the results of the last Fed meeting). In addition, it should be noted that at the next Fed meeting on 29 April, the U.S. could further soften monetary policy. What happens the decline of the U.S. Treasury placements should also help to reduce the dollar.

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