For the dollar becomes more interesting to observe

Financial Analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich: Despite the rather weak start trading in America, as so often happens, their investors have found the strength not to succumb to negative sentiment from weak statistics. As a result, share platforms States rose by the end of the day that, for we know the correlation, causing a surge of optimism on commodity platforms, respectively, reducing the dollar.

Currently, oil prices are near $ 78 a barrel, while remaining in the corridor of 70-82 dollars for five months. But then so high quotes were based acceleration in global growth, in particular the main consumers of this material. At the moment we have forecast that growth will be noticeably lower than in the first quarter and possibly in the second due to low consumer activity and the end of the replenishment of stocks that moved up GDP in the second half of 2009. Accordingly, oil is more likely to fall in price to 70, than to grow above 82. In this case, the ruble may be under pressure, losing weight in the basket. In February it fell to the ruble by 83 kopecks to 34.84, naturally expect a commensurate increase in the area 35,50-35,70.

In the euro could also mention some support around 1.3460 to the dollar, below which the euro has refused to fall yesterday, and that eventually led to some consolidation courses. Euro bounced from 40.50, having risen by more than 20 cents, the dollar is virtually unchanged, but behind it is interesting to observe, while the line of the uptrend in the dollar / ruble and the psychological mark of 30 (where the couple is now) intersected. If the mood will change for a dollar, then we can see a noticeable fall in the rate next week.

With regard to the prospects for March, it seems, most of the euro has already dropped out, impending correction can send a couple of euro / ruble higher 41,50-41,80. An important factor - the mood of the Central Bank. It is difficult to bet against the central bank, and he now seeks to weaken the ruble exchange rate, lowering rates and buying currencies from the market. If the situation with the influx of capital into the background of growing cost of oil will unfold, then all together it will strengthen the weakening of Russia's currency. At the end of March, the dollar / ruble may rise to 30,40-30,50. Although not completely exclude the penetration of the uptrend and falls in the area 29,50-29,30.