Monday, February 22, 2010

Europe's monetary union has become an instrument of deflation torture

If the aim was to join the euro European diversity and serve as a catalyst for political union, Europe's elites would have to moderate the expression of anti-German sentiment in the Greek parliament last week.

Left recalled the damage from Nazi Germany and its allies, accused the German banks in the infamous game and speculation at the expense of the Greek people. " Centrist Democrats are not better. How Germany could muster the audacity to criticize our financial system, even when she did not pay compensation to victims of war? There are still Greeks, who mourn their lost brothers, "- said the ex-Minister Margaritis Tzimas (Margaritis Tzimas).

This is deeply offensive to a democratic Germany, which is 60 years old with dignity plays its complex role in the history of Europe. No country could do more in order to overcome his demons. She pays the bill, pay again and rarely grumble.

Meanwhile, a decade of monetary union has created a broad and permanent hole between the north and south, that all EU initiatives poisoned. German-Greek relations have never been worse.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman (Paul Krugman) sees no point in blaming any country in this "Evrobesporyadke. "The political elites of Europe have a responsibility," - he said. "This is a big effect on the currency, even if we disregard warnings about what specifically might happen, even Eurosceptics can not assume such a bad scenario." In fact, we have assumed the professor. But thanks anyway.

European Monetary Union is slowly strangling the member states' ups and downs, these countries are trapped in debt deflation, as the EMU operating in the same destructive manner as the Gold Standard in 1930.

Rules of the gold standard were simple: the surplus countries eased policy, scarce - tightened. So keep the balance. World War I shattered this system. U.S. was not willing to take a leading role instead of Britain.

The dollar was undervalued in 1920. America managed a significant surpluses, like China today. France pegged exchange is too low. Both countries have depleted world reserves of precious metals. And yet, no country has softened the policy: the Fed because of the fury of the Chicago Liquidators Bank of France due to the fact that they were still very fresh in the post-war consequences of hyperinflation.

Regulation fell entirely on scarce countries such as Britain. They had to introduce tighter during the recession, keeping debt deflation. Global demand has burst from the inside, until the whole system collapsed. In the end, the U.S. and France were victims of your own stubbornness, but in 1930 or 1931 it was not an obvious fact to all but Keynes.

History of the eurozone. North has a surplus, the South - the deficit. Germany's surplus was equal to 6.4% of GDP in 2008, the Netherlands - 6.5%. Deficiencies in the countries of central Europe prevyshayut14% for Greece and 10% of Iberia (Portugal, Spain, Andorra). The gap has since declined, but remained a structural phenomenon.

This intra-version of the Chinese surplus with the Western bias. Although China is, at least, doing something with his Blitzkrieg fiscal and monetary growth of 30%.

Germany rejected the budget deficit for next year, which allowed the fiscal tightening. IG Metall agreed to freeze payments, again undermining the Spanish and Italian trade unions. As the countries of central Europe can close 30% of the gap between the unit costs for labor and a reduction in release of money supply in Germany?

Brussels enforces the European version of deflationary decree Pierre Laval (Pierre Laval) 1935, a policy which encourages the French third republic to the edge. Now he ordered Greece to reduce the budget deficit by 10% of GDP for three years, or be responsible under 126.9. Spain must reduce the deficit to 8%. France next?

ECB allows inflation to develop its own course. Business lending falls 2.3%, while, as the M3 money supply continues to decline. Frankfurt said the fall in demand for loans, so it does not matter. See.

German growth dropped to zero in the fourth quarter due to the expiration of incentives. Italy once again came to the negative. Spain and not come out of recession. This recovery was L-shaped.

Dr. Krugman said that the EMU has prompted Spain to the debt bubble and left the country in "asymmetric shock" without any protection. "If Spain had its own currency, the currency would have appreciated during the housing boom, and after it - would be devalued. Since this is not and was not, Spain has to suffer because of the painful deflation and high unemployment. " He wants higher inflation deflators rescued from the euro-zone trap. Just as the IMF implicitly. But who in Europe will be able to take such a decision?

Albert Edwards (Albert Edwards) from Société Générale said that the government should use its authority in the context of the exchange rate under Article 219 in order to impose a change in policy. "Politicians must take matters into their own hands and instruct the ECB to lower Euro," - he said.

This is possible only if France believes that the risks outweigh the policy of Laval danger because of neglect by the Bundesbank traditional measures. Until that EMU will be a slow deflationary instrument of torture.




Telegraph

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