Euro still has the potential to reduce

Financial Analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich: News outgoing weeks can be divided into two parts: from Europe and the rest of the world. The uncertainty of investors in the stability of Greece to default quickly spread to other countries: Spain, Portugal. Their debt markets have also come from a lack of investor confidence. Those willing to pay the debts of only a certain premium to market quotations. Ultimately, Germany, not wanting to pay for the problems of prior-losers, nevertheless agreed to discuss options for saving, although because of it we can look forward to the details of the plan no earlier than next week. To really dispel the pessimism of the markets that the plan should address not only Greece, but include the ability to support and other countries. In this case, the single currency may be supported by, headed for growth.

At the same time, investors are based, of course, not a high probability of default of Greece and / or other countries in the region. The most reasonable interpretation states that the debt problem much would keep growth in the region. Thus, the euro-zone GDP growth projected to be 1, 2%, and unemployment will grow another year or two. Provide proof of recent data on Germany, where in the fourth quarter GDP growth was not at all. In U.S. forecasts an increase of 2,5% of GDP and the unemployment rate, as expected, passed its peak. An additional factor - the decline of productivity in the euro area against the backdrop of a sharp rise in the States.

Now for the good. Bank of China has signaled that he would not overtighten the nuts, saving rate is moderately loose monetary policy. The fact that this may have confirmed and inflation data for January in this country, were below expectations (1.5% y / y against 1.9% in December and forecasts 2.2% y / y). In addition, labor markets of Australia and the United States in addition breathed optimism bidders from Japan and expect the very sharp increase in GDP over the past two years, and polls there indicate a rise in consumer confidence. Stock sites grow, good dynamics and a commodity markets.

From all this we can conclude that the euro still has the potential to decrease, albeit small. Approximately 1.35 to the dollar and 41 rubles. A pair of dollar / ruble could while maintaining current levels of about 30,10-30,15, or send down in order in the next few weeks in the area of 29,80 in the event of a further rise in oil prices and improving key indices.