The forecast and an analytical review of the FOREX market for the week 1.03.04 - 5.03.04
Last week was marked by market expectations of 2 major events. In the first place - it was a meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday. Secondly - this Friday on the U.S. labor market. Any of these events can teach surprises, so market participants are trying to prepare, based primarily on technical signals. Thus, the week was a good gift for chartist - rates of major currencies behaved quite precisely in line with the rules of technical analysis.
On Monday, foreign exchange trading took place in a moderate pace, investors seem hesitant observed at the end of last week, is still reflected in the market.
As dealers Forex Club, reducing the activity of the players took place not only within the previous few days, but weeks and wait came mostly on long-term investors. The main reason for that, obviously, was a turning point in the prevailing "bull" trend of evrovalyutam, although such a fundamental change has not yet been confirmed. An important event that day was the promulgation of ISM index in manufacturing the United States. And although the figure has little significance nizheozhidaemogo (61.4), his subindeks characterizing the employment in the industry, has demonstrated impressive growth. Because of this, (! Already!) Can be assumed that the published later in the week, figures on the list of employees in non-agricultural sector will show good growth. That's why the market continued to "discharge" of long positions on evrovalyutam against the dollar. Further strengthening of the dollar against the euro and the yen followed the next day, after Japanese Finance Minister Tanigaki outlined his vision of the market. According to him, one of the reasons for weakening of the yen is the growing confidence in the U.S. economy. In addition, he said that at this point in the market comes a natural correction of short positions on the dollar, which builds up the end of last year. Then the players' attention turned to the statement made by the head of Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan. And although his words were not such that could confirm investors' hopes for an early increase in interest rates in the U.S. dollar vzmyl against major rivals. As reported on information channels, the jump was the hidden reason for the Bank of Japan intervention, supported by trigger stop orders. Later, commenting on what is happening in the market, Alan Greenspan has confirmed this view, but also said that the effect of this large-scale intervention would be short-lived. At the same time, he expressed his concern about the continuous rising dollar reserves, which it believes could become a source of problems for the Japanese economy. Judging by the continued growth of the dollar on Wednesday, traders dismissed the accounts of his criticism, along with fundamentals, preferring to be guided by technical analysis of the signals, and ultimately proved right. A good indicator for the decision once again become a rate USD / JPY, which by noon reached 110.5, heated continuing the Bank of Japan intervention. But, released better than expected value for the price index of industrial production for the euro managed to briefly suspend the strengthening dollar. In January, rose by 0,2% compared with the previous month, and 0,3% compared with the previous year. Next came the index of business activity in the non-sector ISM, and although the value was below the previous reduction had been taken into account the market, so the publication is not followed by a wave of sales of American dollars. Far from it, the dollar continued to strengthen, resulting in a pair of EUR / USD has reached the daily minimum at around 1.2055, while GBP / USD at 1.8155, which is about 250 points below its daily maximum. As a consequence quotes euro turned, turned to the opening levels. According to the chief dealer Forex Club Peter Tatarnikova, investors started to close their short positions on a pair of EUR / USD around 1.21 marks, which corresponds to 38.2% of the rise of the euro / dollar level of 1.0750 to 1.2930. On Thursday, in the chaotic vibrations of the major currencies has been difficult to discern a trend, but the exception was the Japanese yen. Despite recent advances in an attempt to reduce the rate of national currency and criticism of the U.S., the Bank of Japan continues to provide its pressure. On this point, there were discussions under which Japan's Ministry of Finance has set a target placed 115 yen to the dollar, and then finally ceased to influence the rate of USD / JPY, because against the backdrop of sustained economic growth, continued interventions require exorbitant financial costs. The level of interest rates in the UK remained unchanged and amounted to 4%, in line with expectations. However, a small weakening of the pound after the announcement of data, the market was attended by many players, it is expected that rates did rise. Commenting on the event, representatives from Bank of America said that the likelihood of rate increases do have, but only in April. In their view, the causes may be to increase the strengthening of economic growth, consumption growth, house prices and the strengthening of leading indicators. The rates for the euro also remained the same - 2%. The response of the market has become a similar situation with the British pound as investors after the publication started to buy dollars as a result of this, a pair of EUR / USD has reached the daily minimum at around 1.2140. At a press conference held later, the head of the ECB Trichet, the expectations of journalists, not spoken about the prospects of monetary policy in the future, as well as the negative impact of the euro on the economy. Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. went a bit better than expected values, however, it did not prevent evrovalyutam stronger after their promulgation.
The biggest surprise for the market Friday yielded data. Despite the fact that all the preliminary indicators signalizirovali improvement in the labor market, the actual figures on the list of employees in non-agricultural sector have been much worse. Market zakladyvalsya still positive data, and this indicator increased by only 21,000 instead of the projected growth of 125,000. Seeing such figures, the market has literally exploded, quotes on the euro and the pound soared up immediately by more than 100 points. This movement is not stopped, and, with a strong charge, the dollar continued to weaken European currencies. Only quotes dollar / yen stood the pressure on the dollar, which felt the impact of the Bank of Japan. On the contrary, prices uderzhalis higher level of 111.00 and then rvanulis point to 112.00.
The forecast for the week of 8 to 12 March.
Given the serious impact of the U.S. labor market, they are very low value is a major application for the cessation of backsliding on the dollar. Low employment growth in fully justifies the reluctance of the representatives of the Fed time to talk about possible rate increases. Therefore, the prospects for rate increases, some economists had expected during the summer, away in time, reducing the attractiveness of the dollar. As noted by Alexei Trifonov, a leading analyst of Forex Club, "these forces are able to ask a similar motion in the medium term. In this connection, we can again see a continued trend Bear on the dollar. However, while that of building large amounts of short positions on the dollar keeps stable behavior dollar against the yen, not without the participation of Japanese financial institutions. In addition, next week, went on U.S. foreign trade (Wednesday), retail sales (Thursday) and consumer confidence (Friday) that the market will pay close attention. Therefore, strong growth These indicators may have to stop the dollar decline, because it will demonstrate the progressive forces of the U.S. economy racing. At the same time, any declines will be negatively perceived by the market, with strong pressure on the dollar. "
Review prepared by the analytical department of Forex Club Financial Company www.fxclub.org
Last week was marked by market expectations of 2 major events. In the first place - it was a meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday. Secondly - this Friday on the U.S. labor market. Any of these events can teach surprises, so market participants are trying to prepare, based primarily on technical signals. Thus, the week was a good gift for chartist - rates of major currencies behaved quite precisely in line with the rules of technical analysis.
On Monday, foreign exchange trading took place in a moderate pace, investors seem hesitant observed at the end of last week, is still reflected in the market.
As dealers Forex Club, reducing the activity of the players took place not only within the previous few days, but weeks and wait came mostly on long-term investors. The main reason for that, obviously, was a turning point in the prevailing "bull" trend of evrovalyutam, although such a fundamental change has not yet been confirmed. An important event that day was the promulgation of ISM index in manufacturing the United States. And although the figure has little significance nizheozhidaemogo (61.4), his subindeks characterizing the employment in the industry, has demonstrated impressive growth. Because of this, (! Already!) Can be assumed that the published later in the week, figures on the list of employees in non-agricultural sector will show good growth. That's why the market continued to "discharge" of long positions on evrovalyutam against the dollar. Further strengthening of the dollar against the euro and the yen followed the next day, after Japanese Finance Minister Tanigaki outlined his vision of the market. According to him, one of the reasons for weakening of the yen is the growing confidence in the U.S. economy. In addition, he said that at this point in the market comes a natural correction of short positions on the dollar, which builds up the end of last year. Then the players' attention turned to the statement made by the head of Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan. And although his words were not such that could confirm investors' hopes for an early increase in interest rates in the U.S. dollar vzmyl against major rivals. As reported on information channels, the jump was the hidden reason for the Bank of Japan intervention, supported by trigger stop orders. Later, commenting on what is happening in the market, Alan Greenspan has confirmed this view, but also said that the effect of this large-scale intervention would be short-lived. At the same time, he expressed his concern about the continuous rising dollar reserves, which it believes could become a source of problems for the Japanese economy. Judging by the continued growth of the dollar on Wednesday, traders dismissed the accounts of his criticism, along with fundamentals, preferring to be guided by technical analysis of the signals, and ultimately proved right. A good indicator for the decision once again become a rate USD / JPY, which by noon reached 110.5, heated continuing the Bank of Japan intervention. But, released better than expected value for the price index of industrial production for the euro managed to briefly suspend the strengthening dollar. In January, rose by 0,2% compared with the previous month, and 0,3% compared with the previous year. Next came the index of business activity in the non-sector ISM, and although the value was below the previous reduction had been taken into account the market, so the publication is not followed by a wave of sales of American dollars. Far from it, the dollar continued to strengthen, resulting in a pair of EUR / USD has reached the daily minimum at around 1.2055, while GBP / USD at 1.8155, which is about 250 points below its daily maximum. As a consequence quotes euro turned, turned to the opening levels. According to the chief dealer Forex Club Peter Tatarnikova, investors started to close their short positions on a pair of EUR / USD around 1.21 marks, which corresponds to 38.2% of the rise of the euro / dollar level of 1.0750 to 1.2930. On Thursday, in the chaotic vibrations of the major currencies has been difficult to discern a trend, but the exception was the Japanese yen. Despite recent advances in an attempt to reduce the rate of national currency and criticism of the U.S., the Bank of Japan continues to provide its pressure. On this point, there were discussions under which Japan's Ministry of Finance has set a target placed 115 yen to the dollar, and then finally ceased to influence the rate of USD / JPY, because against the backdrop of sustained economic growth, continued interventions require exorbitant financial costs. The level of interest rates in the UK remained unchanged and amounted to 4%, in line with expectations. However, a small weakening of the pound after the announcement of data, the market was attended by many players, it is expected that rates did rise. Commenting on the event, representatives from Bank of America said that the likelihood of rate increases do have, but only in April. In their view, the causes may be to increase the strengthening of economic growth, consumption growth, house prices and the strengthening of leading indicators. The rates for the euro also remained the same - 2%. The response of the market has become a similar situation with the British pound as investors after the publication started to buy dollars as a result of this, a pair of EUR / USD has reached the daily minimum at around 1.2140. At a press conference held later, the head of the ECB Trichet, the expectations of journalists, not spoken about the prospects of monetary policy in the future, as well as the negative impact of the euro on the economy. Applications for unemployment benefits in the U.S. went a bit better than expected values, however, it did not prevent evrovalyutam stronger after their promulgation.
The biggest surprise for the market Friday yielded data. Despite the fact that all the preliminary indicators signalizirovali improvement in the labor market, the actual figures on the list of employees in non-agricultural sector have been much worse. Market zakladyvalsya still positive data, and this indicator increased by only 21,000 instead of the projected growth of 125,000. Seeing such figures, the market has literally exploded, quotes on the euro and the pound soared up immediately by more than 100 points. This movement is not stopped, and, with a strong charge, the dollar continued to weaken European currencies. Only quotes dollar / yen stood the pressure on the dollar, which felt the impact of the Bank of Japan. On the contrary, prices uderzhalis higher level of 111.00 and then rvanulis point to 112.00.
The forecast for the week of 8 to 12 March.
Given the serious impact of the U.S. labor market, they are very low value is a major application for the cessation of backsliding on the dollar. Low employment growth in fully justifies the reluctance of the representatives of the Fed time to talk about possible rate increases. Therefore, the prospects for rate increases, some economists had expected during the summer, away in time, reducing the attractiveness of the dollar. As noted by Alexei Trifonov, a leading analyst of Forex Club, "these forces are able to ask a similar motion in the medium term. In this connection, we can again see a continued trend Bear on the dollar. However, while that of building large amounts of short positions on the dollar keeps stable behavior dollar against the yen, not without the participation of Japanese financial institutions. In addition, next week, went on U.S. foreign trade (Wednesday), retail sales (Thursday) and consumer confidence (Friday) that the market will pay close attention. Therefore, strong growth These indicators may have to stop the dollar decline, because it will demonstrate the progressive forces of the U.S. economy racing. At the same time, any declines will be negatively perceived by the market, with strong pressure on the dollar. "
Review prepared by the analytical department of Forex Club Financial Company www.fxclub.org
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