The reason for the growth of the ruble is in the huge trade imbalances

Financial Analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich: Ruble is growing to the main competitors in recent months. His value to the basket is now 34.25, while a few months ago called CBR mark of 35 rubles lower boundary. Such a confident appreciation of the ruble often associated with the dynamics of oil, but the root cause lies in the state of international trade, particularly in the imbalance between imports and exports of Russia.

The cost of U.S. oil at the moment is 80-82 dollars per barrel, while the same amount it cost, and in early November, and December, while the ruble was cheaper. Hence, a speculative factor can not be considered basic. Moreover CBR lowers rate, which makes buying rubles for dollars less attractive than a few months ago.

Nevertheless, except for speculation and the influx of hot money is absolutely natural causes. The fact that the restoration of the world economy has led to increased demand for Russia's exports (oil, gas, metals), while imports (machinery and consumer goods) are imported into the country in much smaller quantities. Data released yesterday showed that exports in January amounted to 28,4 billion (+58.3% y / y), import - 11.6 billion (+10.4% y / y). It turns out that we export 2,5 times more than we import. Surplus is an impressive 16.8 billion dollars. This is a very large imbalance, and called it a weak domestic consumption. For comparison, China's surplus in January amounted to 7.6 billion, but only 9% of imports. In the United States - the deficit, but there is an imbalance is much lower.

In statistics published yesterday, he has made 37,3 billion dollars, but imports at the same time was 180 billion in January is traditionally a weak month of imports, but less than we imported only in January 2009 (when the world trade and got completely), but before the crisis -- in January 2006.

In other words, the ruble is growing at quite a natural surplus of trade / balance of payments. But a closer look reveals that this is caused by weak domestic demand with an increase in demand in foreign markets. This problem has two outcomes. The first - the demand we have recovered, and the company will purchase the equipment, consumers - spending money on cars and appliances, which would entail increased imports and reduce the huge surplus. Second - the victim in the crisis of confidence in future incomes will stimulate savings, while maintaining a high imbalance.

In this case, the CBR will be forced to further reduce the refinancing rate, trying to wake the consumer, and in the interbank market - pushes down the level of support basket, reducing the competitiveness of Russian goods.

At the end of March we expect from a pair of dollar / ruble decline to a mark of 29.30. Euro / ruble will rise marginally to 40.40.