Thursday, May 7, 2009

U.S. promised to rally

World currency market reacted to statements by U.S. Fed officials, razglyadevshih elements of the country's economic recovery. Experts throw projections on the growth of European currency and switch to alternatives in favor of the dollar, promising to the American currency rise by the end of the second quarter to $ 1.30 per euro

The latest forecasts, paint increase the attractiveness of European currencies against the backdrop of easing of the recession in the global economy, not lasted two days. In their stead came fresh and directly opposite the options. Signs of recovery of the U.S. economy forced the experts to give the rolling pennon attractiveness of American currency.

One of these days heard projections for the euro, based on increasing investor appetite for risk against the background data on the weakening of the recession and the rally in equity markets. Recent economic statdannye showed a decrease in the intensity of the global recession and this will lead to an improvement in investors' appetite for risk and reduce the popularity of the yen and the dollar in the short term, said no more on Monday as head of currency strategy for National Australia Bank Ltd. John Kiriakopulos.

"The market has confidence in the reconstruction of the world economy, so the dollar falls below" - note the currency analyst RBS Group Australia Ltd. Greg Gibbs on Monday, commenting on the growth of the European currency. In favor of the euro played and news about the coming bankruptcy of one of the leaders of the American automobile Chrysler and growth of the stock pads.

But the wayward world currency market has returned his affection dollar, entered data on some signs of recovery in the U.S. economy and the forthcoming meeting of the ECB. And it is time to other projections.

The dollar may continue to rise to the euro after the head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA Ben Bernanke announced the easing of the recession in the economy and statdannye showed slowing decline of business activity in services, reports Bloomberg referring to opinion of experts.

The decline of the euro could also be extended if the European Central Bank (ECB) would decide to reduce the base interest rate at a meeting on Thursday. Economists believe that the ECB will lower the base interest rate by at least a quarter of a percentage point - to 1% at the meeting of May 7, updated to record a minimum figure in the history of the central bank.

"The decline of the U.S. economy in the second quarter could be much more moderate - believes deputy chairman of the Board of Directors of Credit Suisse Asset Management Bob Parker. - In fact, the euro is overvalued, and it will have a very negative effect on the economies of the eurozone."

Over the past 4 weeks, the dollar ranged from $ 1.2886 to $ 1.3438 per euro. Analysts Bloomberg surveyed expect an increase in the cost of American natsvalyuty to $ 1.30 by the end of the second quarter. By the end of the forecast period is almost two months, and it can be for this time of the eurozone economy is finally report on a glimmer of hope. While she is at the center of a deep recession, noted recently, the European Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs Joaquin Almunia.

Some experts are not limited to the second quarter and looked even more distant future, dare to make the assumption that by the end of the year the dollar will rise to $ 1.20 per euro. According to the author of the forecast, the head unit of currency strategy for Royal Bank of Canada Europe Ltd. Adam Cole, this happens because of more rapid recovery of U.S. economy compared with the eurozone.

Euro dropped in price to $ 1.3262 in the morning on Wednesday to $ 1.3330 in late trades on Tuesday. But, as they say, is not yet evening. Europe has made Herculean efforts to restore its economy to growth, and corporate accountability a significant number of companies is cause for optimism.

In addition, analysts, distributing forecasts for the U.S. chose to ignore warnings of Representatives United States Federal Reserve, led by its head Ben Bernanke, that one does not preclude a second wave of problems in finsektore country. In addition, the United States will require additional measures to stimulate economic recovery after a long L-shaped (a rapid fall, lasting recovery) recession, I'm sure the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund Kenneth Rogoff.

IFX.RU

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