FG Dohod ": In general, the second half of the day promises to be quite calm

Vadim nobleman. Analytic management FG «DOHOD», 22.05.2009

Trading on Russian stock market on Thursday ended in a significant reduction in the main indexes - they have lost between 2% and 5.5%, and «ate» full growth the previous day. Meanwhile, the situation at the beginning of the day is not promised troubles. Oil well risen, and seemed to confidently settled above $ 60 mark per barrel. On the foreign trading floors also did not happen anything criminal. However, in the course of the day quotes contracts for «black gold» rather dramatically went down, and we lost almost the only support, nothing was left, as also fall down. Evening, we waited for the next piece of statistics because of the ocean, where available data on the benefits. But most attention, of course, paid to oil prices, although this is extremely one-sided dependence can not alarming. And this feeling justified - when you are negative, coupled with falling oil prices, the markets are very strong. At this time, investors are reminded of the disappointing forecasts the Fed about the economy and the situation of unemployment.

Meanwhile, there were quite unexpected events on this day. For example, shares the concern «AvtoVAZ», on the basis of trades soared nearly 30% against the backdrop of allegations of his leadership of anti-crisis plan. In addition to the allocation of large public funds in support of the domestic producer, quotes its securities in the near future can benefit from increased attention of investors.

In general, the situation remained extremely tense and stressed the fragility of growth based solely on the fleeting speculation on rising oil, and is not supported by more fundamental factors.

The first half Friday on our stock market is marked by growth in the major indexes post significant decline the previous day. Before the start of the day situation is ambiguous. Oil prices, although lower, but remained in the vicinity of a mark 60 dollars per barrel, breaking it in the first half of the day. American and European stock indexes declined markedly, but that their evolution is largely a play we had yesterday. Thus, weighing all the «outside» and «to», we did go up in the correction, having decided that the fall on Thursday it was too deep. In doing so, the role of engine of growth was once again attempted to take the action «AvtoVAZ», aircraft coming on the eve of 30% against the background of the adoption of anti-crisis plan. However, by mid-day fusee «bulls», apparently based largely on the deferred demand has dried up somewhat, and for dinner, they add in the price of «total» 5,5%.

Of the domestic news also could be interesting going now reporting «MTS». In general, the second half of the day promises to be quite calm. Any meaningful statistics is not expected, except for already left the value of GDP of Great Britain, whose record drop in our market has been ignored. So it will continue to monitor oil prices and, on the basis of their dynamics, to base their investment strategies.