Correction in commodity prices could break off the horns «bulls» - Natalia Lesin, CC «ALOR»
Futures oil brand Brent, came close to the mark of $ 60 per barrel, provoked this attack «bulls» on the Russian stock market. Other factors also did not prevent purchases. From a technical point of view, the MICEX index to a positive external background is close to the upper boundary of the rising channel, passing close to 1050 points and reinforced the psychological significance of this point.
After the morning gepa bid up to 16.30 Moscow time were in the lateral trend. The main corridor for the MICEX index was the Corridor 1035 - 1045 points, the lower boundary of which was the index holes down after the publication statdannyh on the U.S. housing market: the number of newly fallen by as much as 13% of the expected growth of 2%. Against the backdrop of a weak U.S. futures on indexes, trading in the zeros left in «red» zone. Futures on the index S & P 500 was rushed to a point 900 points, which he stayed up yesterday after the closing of trades on the Russian stock market. Venues near the United States opened yesterday's closing levels. In my opinion, the mood in the States could worsen under the influence of such weak data. Experience in the American market shows that at the opening of the weak data is often ignored, but once «bear» organize advance. In this case, negative affect, and tomorrow morning at the Russian sites.
Shares of banking sector is interesting trading ideas, the current session: two of the three leading positions in sales of the day by Sberbank and VTB. Shares of banking sector look better than the market, which was connected with the likely return of funds made under the TARP three largest U.S. banks. Shares of Sberbank to that fact a second consecutive session on continued move to the upper boundary of the rising channel and update the annual maximum - the new level was set at around 36.34 EUR. However, the negative statistics from abroad has led to the Drawdown securities financial sector. The closest level of support for the shares of Sberbank made mark 35 rub. But at the further deterioration of the external background of this level is unlikely to stand.
Dynamics of shares of VTB has traditionally correlated with changes in the securities of Sberbank. Thus, opening up the action stayed psychological mark 4,5 cop. Thus, the shares traded above the ascending trendline (4,63 cop.) Formed in early February. At the time of sales shares have gone under this level to the next level of support - 4,33 cop. Shares VTB has already been punched several times upper limit of the trend in one or the other way, significantly reducing its value. In the case of wave action VTB closed sales in the medium-term trend, as shares of the Savings Bank rushed to the 200-day moving average, running at 31.7 rubles. It is also worth noting that, from a technical standpoint, the potential of reducing the share of Sberbank higher, since the paper of the bank, first hit the rough with the weak statistics and leave the gap formed at the opening session, outstanding. An important event for the securities of banking sector will be delivering the report on Wednesday the Minister of Finance of the U.S. TV program on Geytnera TARP, vyd
erzhki which can describe the state of the industry.
I do not recommend to move the position and shares of commodity companies. In addition to the risk of general negative sentiment, there is a risk of correction in commodity markets, which can enhance the sale: after so much growth in commodity quotes on technical factors may go down.
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