Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Opinions about the initiatives of China and Brazil

According to reports in The Financial Times, this week in Beijing to meet officials of central banks of Brazil and China, which will discuss the use of their two currencies, rather than the U.S. dollar in bilateral commercial transactions. Of course, both sides would prefer to execute transactions in their own currencies. However, according to Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman, the two countries are not ready to implement such a plan. Using the Brazilian real and the Chinese yuan as the currency of payment shall be risks that the representatives of central banks can not understand fully. According to Chandler, these currencies do not have the liquidity provided by the U.S.. In addition, Chinese authorities have underestimated the prospects for replacing the dollar. Meanwhile, Barclays Capital believe that the consequences of a positive decision of both countries on this issue would be quite significant for the world of relationships. What's good for the world economy (and even the United States), bad for the dollar. Growing confidence in the reconstruction of the economy leads to shift priorities. This idea also reflects the fact that the quantitative easing and exceptional measures to finance the expansion has its costs. However, the likelihood that the U.S. dollar will lose its status as reserve currency, only small. It does not matter in what currency transactions are carried out - essential currency assets in the portfolio. China can not increase the importance of its currency, keeping its rate at a low level. Moreover, one as a reserve currency is its liquidity, which is usually achieved through an open capital account.

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