The economy of the euro area in the first quarter of this year fell by 2.5% the previous quarter and 4.6% for the same period last year, setting a record in the history of measurements. This trend is related primarily to the reduction of production, investment and exports. Economists, however, expect a significant improvement in the situation: the pace of a recession may be reduced to 0.6% in this quarter.
Economic recession in Europe worsening. Eurozone GDP in January-March, according to Eurostat, fell by 2.5% after falling 1.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. Compared with the first three months of 2008 the region's economy has lost 4.6%. In both cases the decline has been greatest since the beginning of the statistical data in 1995. Analysts do not rule out that the cumulative fall in GDP of countries that are members of the Monetary Union may be a maximum since the Second World War. They are, on average, were expecting the economy to the reduction of 2%. According to Capital Economics economist Jennifer Makkyun, Europe has suffered greatly from the decline in world demand and trade. "While we were expecting something similar, the single greatest reversal in the history of performance - lousy results. Obviously, the recession deepened, "- she said. Agreed with her and UniSredit economist Marco Valli: "decreased almost everything except gosrashodov. There was a sharp decline in production, investment, exports, stocks.
Economies of individual countries using the euro, also decreased to minimum values in history. Germany, which accounts for one third of the GDP of the euro area showed the maximum decline in the economy as a unit. The volume produced in the country of goods and services compared to the previous quarter decreased by 3.8%, which was the worst result since 1970. In Italy, GDP fell the most since 1980 - at 2.4%. Slightly better were the data for France, the economy has lost 1.2%. However, experts do not exclude that the French figure could be revised downward, and the problems of Germany called on not to exaggerate. "Of course, the poor performance of Germany, but a third of the country's GDP provides exports, much of which goes by the euro zone - in Asia, where there is still a demand. In this regard, Germany is in a better position than any other country in the euro area ", - said the chief global markets strategist for Cantor Fitzgerald Stephen Pope.
However, economists believe that such a steep decline earlier in the year may indicate an early improvement in the economy. "It looks like the first quarter will be the bottom of a recession in the euro zone. On the reconstruction of the speech is not, but since April there were indications of growth in business activity. In addition, been some revival of world trade. Manufacturers have reduced the power below the level of demand and depleted stocks of goods, so that you can expect some rebound of production ", - believes Marco Valli. In his forecast, the rate of decline in the second quarter may be reduced to 0.6%. "Industrial production in Germany should be seriously improved. Accurate predictions yet difficult to do, but we expect that the rate of decline in GDP will be at the level of 0,6-0,7%, - concurs Jennifer Makkyun. According to the official forecast of the European Commission, the euro zone economy will decline by 4% this year and 0,1% in the next. UniSredit waiting reduction of GDP by 4.4% and an increase of 0.1%, respectively, with quarterly growth will not resume before the start of next year.
RBC daily
Economic recession in Europe worsening. Eurozone GDP in January-March, according to Eurostat, fell by 2.5% after falling 1.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. Compared with the first three months of 2008 the region's economy has lost 4.6%. In both cases the decline has been greatest since the beginning of the statistical data in 1995. Analysts do not rule out that the cumulative fall in GDP of countries that are members of the Monetary Union may be a maximum since the Second World War. They are, on average, were expecting the economy to the reduction of 2%. According to Capital Economics economist Jennifer Makkyun, Europe has suffered greatly from the decline in world demand and trade. "While we were expecting something similar, the single greatest reversal in the history of performance - lousy results. Obviously, the recession deepened, "- she said. Agreed with her and UniSredit economist Marco Valli: "decreased almost everything except gosrashodov. There was a sharp decline in production, investment, exports, stocks.
Economies of individual countries using the euro, also decreased to minimum values in history. Germany, which accounts for one third of the GDP of the euro area showed the maximum decline in the economy as a unit. The volume produced in the country of goods and services compared to the previous quarter decreased by 3.8%, which was the worst result since 1970. In Italy, GDP fell the most since 1980 - at 2.4%. Slightly better were the data for France, the economy has lost 1.2%. However, experts do not exclude that the French figure could be revised downward, and the problems of Germany called on not to exaggerate. "Of course, the poor performance of Germany, but a third of the country's GDP provides exports, much of which goes by the euro zone - in Asia, where there is still a demand. In this regard, Germany is in a better position than any other country in the euro area ", - said the chief global markets strategist for Cantor Fitzgerald Stephen Pope.
However, economists believe that such a steep decline earlier in the year may indicate an early improvement in the economy. "It looks like the first quarter will be the bottom of a recession in the euro zone. On the reconstruction of the speech is not, but since April there were indications of growth in business activity. In addition, been some revival of world trade. Manufacturers have reduced the power below the level of demand and depleted stocks of goods, so that you can expect some rebound of production ", - believes Marco Valli. In his forecast, the rate of decline in the second quarter may be reduced to 0.6%. "Industrial production in Germany should be seriously improved. Accurate predictions yet difficult to do, but we expect that the rate of decline in GDP will be at the level of 0,6-0,7%, - concurs Jennifer Makkyun. According to the official forecast of the European Commission, the euro zone economy will decline by 4% this year and 0,1% in the next. UniSredit waiting reduction of GDP by 4.4% and an increase of 0.1%, respectively, with quarterly growth will not resume before the start of next year.
RBC daily
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