What will the process of rebuilding the world economy if it did begin? This matter now set not only economists but also to all of us.
There is even a joke: "During the crisis, everyone thinks about tomorrow. Only now the bottom of each will be his."
However, experts speculate easier: they have a ready formula for describing the processes of economic development.
For example, a sharp decline, followed by the same rapid growth is described by just one letter of the Latin alphabet "V".
Sometimes using a character similar to the square root sign. Experts immediately clear that if such a scenario, the decline - a very sharp and quick, but recovery will be longer.
Four letters
Typically, the four models of economic recovery, and use the four-letter Latin alphabet to describe them.
V-shaped - it is where everyone wants recovery was rapid.
W - shaped model, means that the recession is a temporary recovery, which is mistakenly taken for a full recovery, and then re-entering a recession of their rights.
The third option - U-shaped trajectory, when the decline is gradual, as well as the subsequent economic growth.
And the worst - this version of L, when the economy is not recovering at all.
"Cultivating Hope
There is unlikely to have an expert who will take the courage to give an accurate prognosis and to choose a particular model of recovery.
However, most still to hope that the recession will end in one and a half years, and world economic growth will resume by the end of 2010.
There are optimists, who already saw the "sprouts of hope" and argue that the recession will end, along with the 2009 year.
Several months ago, all hoping to shallow U-shaped recession. Then, the speed of the fall was the increase, and the path has become like the letter V.
But it is now clear that the recovery of world economy - much more complex geometrical figure, given the different state of national economies, say the United States and China, or the impact of financial crisis on the economies of developed and developing countries.
Fever in the markets
A good indicator is the stock market: they instantly react to macroeconomic data. Since March, the market grew.
Against the backdrop of good quarterly reports in the banking sector, investors appeared hopeful that once the perpetrators of the financial crisis report on less-than-expected loss, if not profit, it marked "the bottom" of crisis, and the way forward - only up.
But can we trust the stock markets? As the famous American economist, Nobel laureate Paul Samyuelson: "The stock market has predicted eight of the last five recessions of time."
Indeed, for encouraging the bank records was followed by reports of producers. And if they are competing with each other in the amount of damages. Markets zalihoradilo.
Economists explain that the restoration of production depends on the restoration of normal functioning of the financial system, primarily loans.
If we take, for example, the UK, according to latest figures, the financial crisis has caused such damage to the real sector of the economy, which removed 5% of GDP. And now every year the UK economy will lose 75 billion pounds sterling.
Comb and pots
Returning to the Latin alphabet, instead of a smooth U, looms W, and even hopeless L.
Moreover, the possibility of exhausting the alphabet, analysts use the shape comparison, the drawing out of a recession as "baths" or "pelvis", a if not "comb".
Prophecies - generally thankless thing. The Bank of England in March predicted growth in 2010 to 1.1% after the recession in 2009 to 3.8%. Then speculated that the decline perekinetsya and for the whole year 2010.
According to the very head of the British central bank Mervyn King, "to judge the balance of all the circumstances affecting the economy now, extremely difficult."
An indicator may be the price of oil. For the first time in six months, oil has risen recently to $ 60 a barrel, or 85% compared with a winter minimum, when it barely exceeded the level of 30 dollars.
Experts attributed the price increases a significant increase of oil supplies to China. And if China started to buy more oil, then it is needed for increasing production. Therefore, not all that bad ...
This development is beneficial to producing countries, exporting countries. In particular, and Russia.
And what will happen to the Russian economy? Will it recover from one of these models or, as usual, with Russia the way of development?
Economists joke: perhaps there is a fifth model - like the letter O. ..
BBC
There is even a joke: "During the crisis, everyone thinks about tomorrow. Only now the bottom of each will be his."
However, experts speculate easier: they have a ready formula for describing the processes of economic development.
For example, a sharp decline, followed by the same rapid growth is described by just one letter of the Latin alphabet "V".
Sometimes using a character similar to the square root sign. Experts immediately clear that if such a scenario, the decline - a very sharp and quick, but recovery will be longer.
Four letters
Typically, the four models of economic recovery, and use the four-letter Latin alphabet to describe them.
V-shaped - it is where everyone wants recovery was rapid.
W - shaped model, means that the recession is a temporary recovery, which is mistakenly taken for a full recovery, and then re-entering a recession of their rights.
The third option - U-shaped trajectory, when the decline is gradual, as well as the subsequent economic growth.
And the worst - this version of L, when the economy is not recovering at all.
"Cultivating Hope
There is unlikely to have an expert who will take the courage to give an accurate prognosis and to choose a particular model of recovery.
However, most still to hope that the recession will end in one and a half years, and world economic growth will resume by the end of 2010.
There are optimists, who already saw the "sprouts of hope" and argue that the recession will end, along with the 2009 year.
Several months ago, all hoping to shallow U-shaped recession. Then, the speed of the fall was the increase, and the path has become like the letter V.
But it is now clear that the recovery of world economy - much more complex geometrical figure, given the different state of national economies, say the United States and China, or the impact of financial crisis on the economies of developed and developing countries.
Fever in the markets
A good indicator is the stock market: they instantly react to macroeconomic data. Since March, the market grew.
Against the backdrop of good quarterly reports in the banking sector, investors appeared hopeful that once the perpetrators of the financial crisis report on less-than-expected loss, if not profit, it marked "the bottom" of crisis, and the way forward - only up.
But can we trust the stock markets? As the famous American economist, Nobel laureate Paul Samyuelson: "The stock market has predicted eight of the last five recessions of time."
Indeed, for encouraging the bank records was followed by reports of producers. And if they are competing with each other in the amount of damages. Markets zalihoradilo.
Economists explain that the restoration of production depends on the restoration of normal functioning of the financial system, primarily loans.
If we take, for example, the UK, according to latest figures, the financial crisis has caused such damage to the real sector of the economy, which removed 5% of GDP. And now every year the UK economy will lose 75 billion pounds sterling.
Comb and pots
Returning to the Latin alphabet, instead of a smooth U, looms W, and even hopeless L.
Moreover, the possibility of exhausting the alphabet, analysts use the shape comparison, the drawing out of a recession as "baths" or "pelvis", a if not "comb".
Prophecies - generally thankless thing. The Bank of England in March predicted growth in 2010 to 1.1% after the recession in 2009 to 3.8%. Then speculated that the decline perekinetsya and for the whole year 2010.
According to the very head of the British central bank Mervyn King, "to judge the balance of all the circumstances affecting the economy now, extremely difficult."
An indicator may be the price of oil. For the first time in six months, oil has risen recently to $ 60 a barrel, or 85% compared with a winter minimum, when it barely exceeded the level of 30 dollars.
Experts attributed the price increases a significant increase of oil supplies to China. And if China started to buy more oil, then it is needed for increasing production. Therefore, not all that bad ...
This development is beneficial to producing countries, exporting countries. In particular, and Russia.
And what will happen to the Russian economy? Will it recover from one of these models or, as usual, with Russia the way of development?
Economists joke: perhaps there is a fifth model - like the letter O. ..
BBC
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