Mood of investors in financial markets remains alert, and dealers noted that the latest speculation on the economic statistics of China, does not contribute to the preservation of the spirit in the ranks of the bulls. Reports from China have recently looked not as much bad, but some economists expressed some skepticism about the favorable situation in China. In the last couple of hours of market participants marked a lively discussion of the notes that appeared on the website WSJ. The first is the article of one of the major representatives of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, Mr. Hu Hianchuna, which tries to explain how to obtain reliable information on the GDP can not simply lay down rates of investment and spending. This article raises questions about how reliable the data, for example, on consumer spending. For example, retail sales adjusted for changes in prices for the first quarter of this year showed a growth of 15.9% (approx. forexpf.ru: nominal 15%) compared with the previous year, but Hianchun drew attention to the statistical shortcomings that have already is open to criticism of some economists. He noted in particular that the official data on retail sales take account of the articles, which in principle can not apply to consumer spending, such as retail sales companies and sales of construction materials, while some of the costs for services such as education and health, they are not included. According to Hianchuna, the use of indicators of consumer expenditures of households in the study of urban and rural households, can provide more reliable results, and analysis of these indicators suggests that growth in real retail sales for these households was 9.6% and 9.3% respectively, higher than in the second half of 2008, but lower than the first two quarters of last year. Still, some economists believed that these studies may not be sufficiently reliable for the assessment of consumer spending, given that they are not view the situation in households with the highest and lowest income groups.
In the meantime, think about data validation NBS of China and makes the second article. According to her, International Energy Agency expressed some bewilderment about the inconsistency of China's GDP growth at 6.1% in the first quarter and falling oil demand by 3.5% during the same period, as well as the unusually low demand for electricity. In the IEA recognizes that the preparation of accurate assessment of demand for oil from China is quite a difficult task, given the lack of data, and based on information from independent sources. However, the agency believes that in light of official data on economic activity from China could expect a stronger demand and the positive dynamics. In the IEA noted that this discrepancy could be explained by a significant change in the elasticity of income, while another possible reason for the inaccuracy of the data is banal. They note that a similar assessment of the demand would be more consistent with the lack of growth of GDP or slightly decrease during the first quarter. This view, however, is not shared by all. Some economists believe that this discrepancy may be due to a strong fall in production in sectors with high energy consumption in comparison with the rest of the economy.
Either way, investors in recent days have become more sensitive to negative news, given the growing concern that the recovery of risk assets may be too strong and hasty in mind the possibility of L-shaped economic decline, and such reports only increase tension among the market participants.
In the meantime, think about data validation NBS of China and makes the second article. According to her, International Energy Agency expressed some bewilderment about the inconsistency of China's GDP growth at 6.1% in the first quarter and falling oil demand by 3.5% during the same period, as well as the unusually low demand for electricity. In the IEA recognizes that the preparation of accurate assessment of demand for oil from China is quite a difficult task, given the lack of data, and based on information from independent sources. However, the agency believes that in light of official data on economic activity from China could expect a stronger demand and the positive dynamics. In the IEA noted that this discrepancy could be explained by a significant change in the elasticity of income, while another possible reason for the inaccuracy of the data is banal. They note that a similar assessment of the demand would be more consistent with the lack of growth of GDP or slightly decrease during the first quarter. This view, however, is not shared by all. Some economists believe that this discrepancy may be due to a strong fall in production in sectors with high energy consumption in comparison with the rest of the economy.
Either way, investors in recent days have become more sensitive to negative news, given the growing concern that the recovery of risk assets may be too strong and hasty in mind the possibility of L-shaped economic decline, and such reports only increase tension among the market participants.
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