Monday, May 11, 2009

Comments BBH on major currency pairs

Euro / dollar. During the impressive growth in the Friday Euro / Dollar Breaks as a 200-day moving average, and the downward trend line with July highs of last year ($ 1.3520), and now the only short-term resistance remains March maximums around $ 1.3740. Given perekuplennost day Momentum might be more attractive levels for the opening of long positions in a pair before we see a marked resistance testing and the break above. The best way would be to buy at lower to the former resistance around $ 1.3520 with the expectation that it will now act as support, as well as when moving to a 200-day moving average around $ 1.3455 with a foot below the trend with a minimum of April / May, about $ 1.3335. While the euro / dollar remains above this support, the strategy of buying on the decline remains valid.

dollar / yen. Failure to overcome every April, last week gave rise to talk about the possibility of forming the right shoulder of head and shoulders in the afternoon schedule, which involves the completion of the trends shaping higher maxima and minima. Dollar / yen may continue to decline towards trendline around Y96.30, and then to a minimum last month near Y95.65 and minimize March Y93.55. Daily slow Stochastics gives negative signals, and sales figures would suggest turning the potential collapse of a pair of seven figures.

Pound / dollar. Friday was a positive day for the pound in terms of changes in the technical picture. However, a couple is still below the trend line with the previous highs of about $ 1.53, and the bulls need a break above for the continuation of growth. This event will include the possibility of British currency movement in the direction of the upper channel boundary around $ 1.5620 and the 200-day moving average at $ 1.5690. Bulls should record profits on the approach of the course on this level, with perhaps here would be to think, and the opening short positions with the expectation of a strong rebound from the resistance. If these levels are holes, it can be expected to significantly reduce short positions and the further development of bottom-up movement.

dollar / franc. Closure of the dollar / franc last week, indicates the potential for further weakening the dollar, especially since the weekly and monthly Momentum in a state of free fall. The only "but" is a line of support around Chf1.0990, parallel to a line delineated by the maximum of 2008/2009. It may be sufficient to halt the decline and lay the groundwork for some consolidation and even recovery. One thing is certain: this breakthrough would be a signal of support to stimulate the bears and open the way to a minimum around January Chf1.0865, Chf1.0705 and Chf1.0610.

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