United Kingdom: Gordon Brown: The restoration of world trade in the main priority

At the G20 meeting in London in April, leaders agreed to invest 250 billion dollars on the development of international trade over the next two years. In addition, the first steps towards optimizing the control of trade and investment. Such action would remove most trade barriers have become an obstacle to the development of the World Trade Organization / WTO /.
The Governments of the Greater twenty concerned that international trade and investment came under the greatest pressure from the financial crisis. Falling exports have forced companies to reduce production, close plants and fire workers. Previously, it was expected that the largest fall survive the country with the greatest financial component of the economic infrastructure, but current events make it possible to conclude the conclusion that, under high pressure were of the most linked to international trade. Japanese exporters have lost half of its foreign market, according to a study in the first quarter of this year, compared with the same period of 2008. The volume of exports from China fell by 17% per year, which was accompanied by a loss of 26 million jobs. Exports of United States fell by 30%, imports by 34% in the first quarter, in annual terms. In the Eurozone's largest economy, Germany, exports declined by an average of 20% in the same period.
"Recovery in the global economy will not, unless we address the problem of trafficking. Foreign trade has become the only source of growth in the economies of Japan, the United States, most European countries, in post-war period. The Asian economies also grew in the last decade, only through international trade. To exit the world economy from recession, we must ensure that the revival of world trade, "- said Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

China continues to invest in the U.S.

China continues to buy up government bonds, Ministry of Finance United States in large quantities, despite fears of a devaluation of U.S. dollar

According to preliminary data, U.S. Government, only in March this year, China's direct investment in U.S. Treasury bonds rose to $ 23.7 billion, reaching an absolute record in the $ 768 billion previously, Treasury and Federal Reserve (Fed) reported that during 2008 China increased its investment in U.S. debt to $ 477.6 billion to $ 727.4 billion
Financial analysts argue that China stuck to «dollar trap», since China has no alternative other than the continuation of the massive cash infusions into the economy through the purchase of U.S. government debt. In the context of the global financial crisis, U.S. Treasury bond market is considered to be the only major market with sufficient liquidity, which is consistent with the scope of Chinese investment and foreign exchange reserves. Since March, a 10-year yield of U.S. Treasury bonds rose 90 basis points and reached almost 3.5%.
In doing so, the Chinese authorities do not give up attempts to reduce dependence on the U.S. economy, where possible. In order to somehow protect themselves from the problems of the U.S. financial system, Chinese authorities have moved their investments in short-term debt and are trying to quietly diversify its reserves structure, increasing the gold reserve. Last year China ceased to buy the bonds of mortgage agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and focused primarily on short-term treasury bills.
This week will be another auction for the sale of government bonds totaling U.S. $ 100 billion in China accounts for nearly a quarter of total debt dollars ($ 3.2 trillion.). In turn, China holds dollar-denominated assets, according to various estimates, from 70% to 80% of the world's largest reserves, which amount to almost $ 2 trillion. As a result, China has become the largest U.S. lenders, ahead of Japan to increase investments in debt from U.S. $ 579.9 billion to $ 626 billion
Next on the list of creditors of the U.S. followed by countries in the combined group «bank Islands» (Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman and the Antilles, and Panama), Middle Eastern and African oil exporters, Russia and the United Kingdom, which in 2008 increased its investments in treasury bonds United States in the 3.5-fold, to $ 116.4 billion
«It is clear that if the Chinese were able to globally reduce its dependence on the dollar, they would be happy to use it. But what they can do? Stop buying or start selling U.S. Treasury securities? Then the collapse of the dollar occurs, all the Chinese dollar assets depreciated, and the world economy will experience the strongest shock the last time. For most of China, with its dependence on exports it would be a terrible blow, so willy-nilly forced Beijing to maintain the status quo », - said currency strategist Michael Dresdner Kleinwor Klavitter.
According to him, starting to invest in short-term debt of U.S. Chinese authorities, firstly, reduce the potential losses in the event of stressful situations in the economy, and secondly, on the assumption that short-term market liquidity in the securities above.
In a crisis of financial markets, China's buying U.S. government securities affects the mood of investors. «Information about China's increasing volume of investment may boost the confidence of the holders of U.S. bonds, which were concerned about the risk of possible sale of these securities by other players during the recession of U.S. economy», - considers the chief economist of Daiwa Securities SMBC Yasutoshi Nagai.
«I am not too concerned about the current trend in the yield of government bonds. If the case on the contrary, it seems to be rather alarming sign. But what we see - it is a signal, indicating the possibility of restoring the economy, that reduces the risk », - said the chief economist of MKM Partners Michael Darda.
In turn, Deputy Minister of Finance of Russia Oksana Sergienko argues that the demand on the part of Russia, China and other countries to buy long-term Treasury bonds U.S. Treasury decline, and, on April data, investors have reduced investment in these securities at 70%. Thus, it is expected that in the medium term, the U.S. must reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP, or the rating agencies may review the credit rating of the country, which now amounts to «AAA». «Even if they do not lower the rating, the demand for U.S. treasury bonds from Russia, China and other countries will decline. Turn trend will be slow, but it is clear », - believes Ms Sergiyenko.

Economic News

Banana hyperinflation U.S.

Methods of combating the U.S. with the global financial crisis could lead to hyperinflation in the country, some analysts believe. Some do not exclude that the increase in prices in the world's largest economy will be similar to galloping rise in prices in Zimbabwe, where inflation is estimated at millions of percent

Talk of a possible hyperinflation in the United States does not expire for several years now, and every time the advent of the "miracle" economies of patients to some experts, all seems more real. Analysts and again frightening future world problems.
The U.S. economy may be faced with hyperinflation, the rate will be close to the level of Zimbabwe, because the Federal Reserve is unlikely to rush into raising interest rates, reports Bloomberg referring to the views of the famous investor and analyst Marc Faber.
Prices in the United States can grow almost at the same speed as in Zimbabwe, said M. Faber. Annual inflation in Zimbabwe reached 231 million percent in July last year, after which the Government has not published more recent data, so as not to frighten the public.
"I am 100% sure that the United States zahlestnet hyperinflation. The problem of such a large debt, as the United States, is that the time will come when the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates, but they will do so very reluctantly, and inflation will accelerate" - the experts.
Federal Reserve pour current cash flow crisis, and the government continually intervenes in the economic process. Marc Faber this very unhappy and has repeatedly spoken out negatively about this. Back in February, he broke out in an interview with TV channel CNBC tough criticism of the authorities and compared their attempts to settle the crisis with money from the actions of the Zimbabwean leader Robert Mugabe. "If you look at the debts of the Government of the United States and debts in general, I think that the only way for them to avoid default is inflation", - said the analyst. And two years earlier he had dedicated to this issue a report, which is titled "America is becoming a banana republic?"
But then, experts hoped that the Zimbabwean scenario will not stupidly copied the United States. Theoretically, it is not excluded that emerging trends could be reversed. But, judging by his new speech, it did not happen.
But the official U.S. financial authorities are far from such fantasies. All of what they are capable of, it forecast growth of prices at the level of 2,5% in the next 2-3 years. Thus, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Charles Plosser said last week that inflation in the United States could reach 2.5% per annum to 2011, earlier by the American Central Bank forecast growth of prices at that time ranged from 1.7% to 2%.
"There are fears the risks associated with inflation, because of the injections of liquidity into the banking system, but now the threat is not imminent, given the unused production capacity in the United States", - considers the head unit of economic forecasts Action Economics in Singapore, David Cohen. Action Economics predicts decline in prices in the United States at 0.4% in 2009, inflation at 1.8% next year and 2% - in 2011
But even if Marc Faber fantasies become reality, whether or not to weep for America, which might try to imagine the benefits of inflation? The country will protect themselves against default (U.S. debt estimated at more than $ 11 trillion, which in principle is comparable to the annual GDP). Rather, the big problems may arise in other national economies that are "rewarding" America save itself, is pleased to bring yet another crisis, which severely devalued dollar devalue multiply stockpiled on the "black day" American assets.

IFX.RU

Inflation and deflation are fears the world's Central Bank

American and European Central Bank will soon tackle two problems at once: with the threat of deflation and inflation, which could begin immediately after the end of the world financial crisis. Moreover, experts fear that it will provoke a sharp increase in rates on loans and to defer indefinitely the recovery of world economy, transmits Reuters.

Immediately after the start of the credit crisis, Central Bank of Europe and the United States began the cycle of lowering interest rates, trying to explained the growth of world economy. Recently, however, the economy began to stabilize, and many experts began to talk seriously about the threat of inflation.
"It is very important to predict when to change monetary policy and begin to raise rates. I am afraid that this time the world's Central Bank does not guess, and the world face the threat of inflation," - said former representative Robert FRB Atlanta Ayzenbays. This expert added that the situation worsens the sharp rise in unemployment: in April the unemployment rate in the United States stood at 8.9%, and many predict that the growth rate up to 10%.
Just a month ago, a regular meeting of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA, which carries out the function of the Central Bank in the country. Even then, the first calls to raise the discount rate, to avoid a sharp rise in inflation. However, most lawmakers expect to avoid inflation of at least the next few years.
However, this point of view have not all experts. "Market participants concerned about the possible rise in inflation. However, the reasons to fear at all different. The most interesting thing is that in the case of growth of inflationary expectations (not the inflation rate), the restoration of the world economy would be suspended for an indefinite period", - said JPMorgan Chase economist Michael Feroli.
Meanwhile, pour oil into the fire and the weakening dollar. "As the market starts to believe in the speedy recovery of U.S. economy, the dollar begins to weaken, which in turn dramatically increases the growth of inflation", - believes Professor of Economics Oberlin College Ellis Tallman. According to him, in case of aggravation of crisis, the U.S. currency once again begin to grow and market participants once again speak about the increased risk of deflation.
In turn, the U.S. Federal Reserve head Ben Bernanke said back in mid-May that U.S. policymakers will maintain its policy of strong dollar, since all are now profitable stability. "Of course, we are trying to avoid deflation and further economic slowdown. But we also try to avoid a sharp rise in inflation after the growth rate of the U.S. economy will recover," - said the head of the Fed. A similar statement was made Vice-President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Lucas Papademos: "Our objective - price stability, and after improving macroeconomic conditions, we will begin to change our monetary policy."
According to estimates of most economists, the euro should not fear a sharp increase in inflation: in any case, it is unlikely that in the next two years, it might go beyond the threshold set by the ECB of 2%. "The question of price stability should be devoted exclusively to the CB. But I believe that at present the risk of deflation is much more growth than the risk of inflation", - said UniCredit economist Aurelio Makkario.

RBC

Calendar of main economic events of Friday, 29.05.09

Time (GMT +3)
Currency
Name of indicator
Forecast / Previous value
na - not available

03:01
GBP
GfK Consumer Confidence
The index of consumer confidence
-25 / -27
03:15
JPY
Manufacturing PMI
The index of business activity in the industrial sector
na / 41.4
03:30
JPY
Household Spending y / y
Household Expenditure
-0.7% / -0.4%
03:30
JPY
Tokyo Core CPI y / y
The core consumer price index in Tokyo
-0.6% / 0.0%
03:30
JPY
National Core CPI y / y
Consumer price index
-0.1% / -0.1%
03:30
JPY
Unemployment Rate
Unemployment rate
5.0% / 4.8%
03:50
JPY
Prelim Industrial Production m / m
Industrial production
3.3% / 1.6%
05:30
AUD
Private Sector Credit m / m
The volume of private lending
0.2% / 0.1%
09:00
JPY
Housing Starts y / y
Start of construction
-21.8% / -20.7%
10:00
EUR
German Retail Sales m / m
Retail sales
0.5% / -0.4%
12:00
EUR
M3 Money Supply y / y
Monetary aggregate M3
4.6% / 5.1%
12:00
EUR
Private Loans y / y
Private lending
2.9% / 3.2%
13:00
EUR
CPI Flash Estimate y / y
Consumer price index
0.2% / 0.6%
13:00
EUR
Italian Prelim CPI m / m
Consumer price index
0.3% / 0.2%
13:15
EUR
ECB President Trichet Speaks
Speech by Chairman of the ECB JC Trichet
13:30
CHF
KOF Economic Barometer
From the KOF Economic Barometer
-1.82 / -1.86
16:30
CAD
Current Account
Balance of payments
-10.5B /-7.5B
16:30
USD
Prelim GDP q / q
GDP growth
-5.5% / -6.1%
16:30
USD
Prelim GDP Price Index q / q
GDP deflator
2.9% / 2.9%
17:45
USD
Chicago PMI
The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector
42.3 / 40.1
17:55
USD
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
The index of consumer sentiment
68.0 / 67.9
17:55
USD
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
The index of inflation expectations
na / 2.6%

GC "Alor": «Bychi» mood MICEX index back to the level of 1080 points

Under the curtain trading session, the Russian market has been published positive statistics on an index of consumer confidence in the United States, which changed the course of bidding. During yesterday's session, falling sales for the futures on oil and the U.S. indexes, MICEX index rushed toward 1000 points. However, statistics suspended sales and reverse the part of the fall, bringing the ruble index closed in the red percentage. From a technical point of view, an important event was the closing gepa on MICEX index of 26 May. External background, existing today, also offers an index path to the upper level of the rising channel, formed in February of this year. Resistance will make the level of 1050 points, in the case of Perforation by MICEX index back to the upper boundary of the channel - 1080 points.

Following the closure of Russia's growth platforms in the stock market the U.S. will continue. Dow Jones index once again closed around 8500 points mark. It seemed the paper market financing structures, as well as shares of commodity companies. A strong positive momentum in commodity markets, observed yesterday, has provided substantial support for securities sector. Now futures for U.S. indices traded near the zero mark, and not to hinder the purchase. Adjust the mood of market participants can publish statdannyh United States - at 18:00 Moscow time the sale will be published on the secondary housing market for April.

Better the market shares today will look like the oil and gas industry. Futures oil brand Brent after the closure of the Russian market turned up and not only stayed up the level of $ 61 per barrel, but kept above it. However, in my view, the fundamental reason for such rapid growth in commodity markets is not. Today at 18:30 Moscow time will be announced on oil and petroleum products in the U.S. that will determine the mood in the «neftyanke» eve of announcement of the decision by OPEC quotas to mine «black gold». The immediate objective of shares «Gazprom» will be the level of 175 rubles., In the event that shares of Perforation test box 177.5 rubles. The closest level of support will make 21-day moving average, which lies close to the mark 165 rub. In addition to a positive external background, supporting pleadings «Gazprom» will also learn about the increasing presence of companies in the Far East.

Shares of banking sector to follow the general increase in the Russian market. For five consecutive sessions of Sberbank shares test the level of 40 rubles. per share. External background of the current before the opening of bids, contributes to this level of Perforation. In the case of Perforation mark 40 rub. I recommend to open a position with a view to 45 rubles. The closest level of support will mark 39 rub. per share.

Futures on gold after the closure of local sites stayed up boxes $ 950 per troy ounce. However, a positive external background is not conducive to shopping in the «protection» of instruments, and at the moment futures for gold again went below the psychologically significant level that would affect the dynamics of paper gold mining companies in Russia. Promotions «Polyus Gold» yesterday followed the dynamics of the commodity market and in sales again fell in the downstream channel. To support the point made by the 1350 rub. Which is also valid for the current session. The next level of support can be a mark 1327 rub. Promotions «Polimetall» under the influence of internal ideas. Yesterday, the paper looked much better than the market, which could be due to several reasons, most of them - buying securities in anticipation of the major foundations of including stock index MSCI Emerging markets. Papers closed above the important level - 250 rub. That at the current session can serve as a support.

General Financial Company: Morning positive background for the Russian stock market, we expect the opening of the gap 0.7% on the MICEX index

On Tuesday, falling on the Russian stock market continued for almost the entire range of securities. As leaders of a reduction in telecommunication and financial sectors. Against the backdrop of falling global explosion, one can say the dynamics have demonstrated the action Mosenergo:

+5% On the background of the publication of positive statements for the year 2008 under IFRS. In addition to

Togo, in the black (7.5%) were Polimetall paper, which is probably related to their inclusion in the MSCI Russia index from May 29 instead of shares of ICP (who lost yesterday's session for more than 6%).

External sales background helped: European indexes, and oil futures on the S & P declined steadily during Russia's trading session, which is linked with a record fall in the index S & P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (rate of U.S. real estate market) in the first quarter of 2009 (-19.1% ), as well as investors' fears about the North Korean nuclear test. In addition, the negative information is a reduction in GDP in Germany - 3.8% in the first quarter. Night markets regained some lost value, and not the least is played on a high index potreb.doveriya United States in May.

Today is the quarterly statements of OAO «Veropharm» and Bank «Revival», and also held an annual general meeting of shareholders of JSC «Novatek» and CHMK.

Morning positive background for the Russian stock market, we expect the opening of the gap 0.7% on the MICEX index.

Department of the Flash market RTS: FORTS futures closed in the red on the basis of the substantive session

FORTS futures closed in the red on the basis of the substantive session. Trading volume was $ 1 679 049 958. The number of open positions in Futures dropped to 3 440 020 contracts for options - rose to 3 390 214 contracts. Futures on the RTS index fell by 3.45% to a value of 97900. The volume of transactions on the futures on the index was 591 886 contracts, open interest in futures was 472 246 contracts. In the fall of the leaders of the contracts on shares of Russian banks: a contract for the ordinary shares of OJSC "Bank VTB" decreased by 4.28%, the contract for preferred shares of OAO Sberbank of Russia "(-4.05%), a contract for the ordinary shares of OAO Sberbank of Russia (-2.37%). Futures for shares of other companies have fallen by 1,41% - 3,91%.

On the money market had grown up contracts for a couple of euro-ruble (0.32%), contracts for the euro-dollar pair declined to 0.64%. Contract on the ruble-dollar rate went up by 1.25%.

Contracts for oil varieties BRENT decreased by 1.13%, contracts for gold and silver at 0.77% and 1.36% respectively.

The contract for the ordinary shares in OAO "RusGidro" was the only contract, have completed the main session in the black, gaining 0.27%.

As of 18.30 Moscow time on. positive trend has returned to derivativnuyu site FORTS only the beginning of the evening session: the leaders of futures on shares of Russian banks. Futures on the RTS index rose by 2.16%.

Euro, March 2009: Industrial orders

New orders fell by 0.8% m / m in March to 0,0% in February, said the European Union statistics agency Eurostat. Last year, orders fell sharply to 26.9%, compared with a revised decrease of 34.2% in the previous month. Market participants predict that new orders dropped by 0.8% m / m and 30.1% a year. The decline in February was revised up to 0.6% m / m, and a record 34.5% in the year reported last month. The data confirm other recent economic reports, which indicate that although the euro remains at the mercy of the most serious recession since the Second World War, the decline below the lower limit.

British banks have turned against the Obama tax plans

British banks and brokers may refuse to service American customers will be taken if the tax proposals presented by U.S. President Barack Obama, the Sunday Telegraph.

The decision, which the Americans in London would be difficult to open bank accounts and trade shares, the leaders discussed British banks and brokerage firms, which indicate that Americans care may become too costly. The proposals contained in the first budget message, Obama, aimed at combating the evasion of U.S. taxes overseas. However, British banks argue that they want to force to collect taxes on Americans, thus impractical and expensive litigation.

Andy Thompson of the Association of Investment Managers and brokers serving individual clients (Association of Private Client Investment Managers and Stockbrokers - APCIMS) said: "The cost and administrative rules of the tax regime for the U.S. forced the British investment companies to reflect the withdrawal of the investment of its customers in U.S. equities. This is wrong and shows that the international tax regime that hurts the U.S. economy itself, which he tries to protect. "

Measures U.S. Federal Reserve are adequate to the current crisis

The key interest rate the Federal Reserve System (Fed) is likely to remain close to zero during the "long period of time," said Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Fed, Donald Kohn.

According to the publication of MarketWatch, the official believes that the measures the Central Bank of United States are appropriate in a crisis and can lead to significant economic growth and increase tax revenues.

D. Cohn actively defends Fed policy, stating that by custom controls measures helped prevent a deepening crisis.

"In my opinion, this alternative policy was necessary to prevent a much worse developments in the economy, our traditional measures meet the purposes and principles of monetary policy", - said D. Cohn.

He believes that "the depth and the inertia of the economic downturn" restrict the ability of the Fed on the use of traditional instruments of monetary policy - interest rates, the Central Bank. The base interest rate the U.S. central bank is in the target range of 0% to 0.25%.

"Target rate on federal loans will remain for some time close to zero. But the result is a more effective fiscal incentives than under normal conditions", - said D. Cohn.

The ECB will hold the first strike in its history

Employees of the European Central Bank in early June, will conduct the first financial institution in the history of a strike in protest against planned changes in the pension system of the ECB. This writes the newspaper The Financial Times.

Half a protest will be held June 3. By the union called a strike of International and European Public Services Organisation (Ipso), which includes 460 of the 1500 ECB staff.

Discontent of the ECB led the reorganization of the pension system, limiting the ability of staff to retire before age 65. Changes have also occurred in the rules for calculating benefits, because of what their size, according to President Ipso Petty, Adrian (Adrian Petty), could be reduced by an average of 15 percent. In addition, the main representatives of the union claim is that management of the ECB did not discuss with the employees of the reorganization.

In turn, the leadership of the ECB stressed that the possible changes discussed in the past two years and are necessary in the context of current economic conditions.

The Financial Times notes that a strike at the ECB will be the first among all major central banks. Thus, since the inception of the union at the Bank of England in 1975, these protests did not hold a financial institution. Representatives of the U.S. Federal Reserve, created in 1913, was not able to recall the strike in its history.

Yen loses its position on bidding in Asia

Yen fell against most currencies higher against the backdrop of talk that is published in this week's economic reports on the United States confirm the recovery process in the world's largest economy, reducing, thus, the demand for safer assets. Analysts expect the sale of homes in the housing market has increased compared to the previous month. "If there is even a drop of optimism, the demand for safe currency begins to fall. In particular, the U.S. is most vulnerable because of the possible outflow of capital from dollar-denominated assets in more risky." Meanwhile, the euro fell against the dollar on the background conversations that members of the Central Bank as soon as possible signal of his intention to keep rates low to stimulate growth.

HSBC. Correction of the U.S.: to be or not to be?

Last week, the U.S. dollar made the surprise to investors, continued to decline, even when on the background of the growth trends in the care of the risks and reduce the U.S. stock markets. Such a development could mean that the U.S. currency loses its status as the currency of refuge. But on Tuesday the dollar in part because of losses played growing concern for the nuclear test by North Korea - of course, this event is a more serious reason to avoid the risks than the decline in stock indexes. "The growth of the dollar against the backdrop of provocative acts by North Korea, namely the testing of nuclear weapons and launching short-range missiles, is not characterized by its positive sides - from analysts believe HSBC. - But those events and the concomitant reduction of" appetite for risk can help U.S. to begin correction after recent falls. "

RBCCM sees an opportunity to increase euro / pound

Euro / pound today continued to feel under pressure, and after this time the bulls for several hours met with obstinate repulse near stg0.8810, steam once again turned lower, with the result that to date the single currency showed minima in the vicinity of the session stg0. 8757. However, according to currency strategists RBC Capital Markets, the potential for further growth is limited lbs. The bank acknowledged that, in general, the market reaction to news of the change in the forecast for the British rating agency S & P turned out to be fairly neutral, but believe that a large amount of auctions to sell government bonds in the next few months, not just provide market participants a reason to talk about the deteriorating fiscal position of the Misty Albion. Do foreign investors there are still enough reasons for concern about the attractiveness of British assets, and the view of strategists RBCCM, euro / pound is likely to show movement stg0.90 higher in the coming days before we see a strong consolidation of the British currency.

Department of the Flash market RTNs: The July crude oil futures class BRENT lost an average of 2.08% and were at $ 58.89

Department of the Flash market RTNs

The July crude oil futures class BRENT lost an average of 2.08% and were at $ 58.89

Futures are traded in the commodity section of the red zone. As of 3 pm Moscow time on. Futures on the RTS index fell by 4.5% to a value of 96 835. Contracts with the performance in June and July oil varieties BRENT losing an average of 2.08%. Last transaction price of oil in June, $ 58.89, July traded at a price of $ 59.61. The contracts for precious metals also reduced: contracts for gold with the performance in June and September fell by an average of 1.45%. Last transaction price for the June and September contracts at $ 943.50 gold. Contracts in June and September for silver cheaper at 2.31% and 1.49% respectively. The gap in price between them is 14 cents. Last transaction price for the June contract for silver - $ 14.39.

AKB "Absolut Bank": The market is trying to determine how long it may be started corrective decline

Deputy Chief of the Division of fiduciary Absolut Bank Ivan Fomenko:
An auction for the Russian market was determined mainly by the dynamics of oil quotations, and geopolitical factors. Thus, against the backdrop of North Korea's nuclear test, Asian markets were trading in negative zone, which set a negative opening of Russia's trading session. Subsequently, the intention to sell the Russian players were backed by the decline of European stock market indicators.

The biggest losses have the paper today the banking sector, in particular, «Sberbank» and «VTB». Do not lag behind them, and shares of oil companies, which declined within 3-4%. Pressure on «neftyanku» has a correction in oil prices.

The exceptions were the paper «Polimetall», going against the market. According to him today was an increase, exceeding 11%. The upsurge in the interest of buyers, apparently due to the fact that the securities of the issuer at the end of May will be included in the calculation of the index MSCI EM.

Now the market is trying to determine how long it may be started corrective decline. The duration of the fall will depend largely on external factors and the market reaction to the results of the upcoming OPEC meeting. It is obvious that the root above the mark of 1000 items RTS index market has not yet been reached, and, apparently, in the near future tenders will be held near this level.

Scotia Capital: Canadian Dollar has shown good results

A pair of U.S. / Canada slightly stronger against the backdrop of the rising trend of avoidance of risk and interconnected to reduce prices of commodities and securities. Following the 7-month peak at the end of last week, Canadian Dollar, mainly located in the corrective movement. Based on the technical picture, reducing the likelihood of currency rather low, unless the U.S. dollar would not be able to come back in the area of C $ 1.1600. Currency strategists from Scotia Capital pointed out that the Canadian currency has shown relatively good results under the existing pressure on the stock and commodity markets, given the fact that the Australian dollar and Norwegian krone has fallen by 1.4% and 2.2% respectively. Now the U.S. / Canada traded at C $ 1.1309, compared with C $ 1.1230 on Monday.

BBH on the prospects of the foreign exchange market

Over the past 48 hours, the U.S. dollar managed to recover, however, after a sharp fall last week, he still is far from important technical levels. Rising correction of the dollar yesterday and today led to the closing of short positions, and then allow other currencies to form a springboard for new growth. Economic news is not a determining factor for the movement of currencies. Last week, missed the game entered the fall of the dollar pulse traders, thereby providing support for major currencies, as well as the many currencies of developing countries. This trend has continued in force. Since Friday last week began lowering the euro and the pound: the currency has fallen below the 5-day moving average (currently at $ 1.3913 and GBP1.5845), although testing 38.2% adjustment increase last week ($ 1.3811 and GBP1.5630) is yet to come. Time indicators show that the currency is in the pereprodanosti, and thus the euro and the pound now must win back some losses. Breakthrough euro / dollar above $ 1.3980 would signal further growth. By pound, break above GBP1.5860 would mean the possibility of further growth to the maximum of the last week of GBP1.5950. With regard to the Japanese currency, after an unsuccessful attempt to take the level of JPY95.28 (50% reduction in correction of last week), the dollar remained within yesterday's range. Here, at the hourly schedules of the U.S. currency also overbought: breakthrough in the case below JPY94.75 possible minima testing last week in an area JPY9386.

Pound / dollar is trying to recover losses

Pound / dollar has found support near $ 1.5780/75 and after repeated attempts failed to break below, few recover previous positions, but dealers note that bears re-activated around $ 1.5850/60 and the inability of the British currency back above this area faces result in the resumption of sales and return to the recent level, and then to the support in the region of $ 1.5760/50. Currency strategists BNP Paribas, arguing about the prospects of development of the market situation, also note the possibility of testing indicated support, but do not exclude and a deeper correction pair. Investors remain very sensitive to negative news, which allows you to count on new attacks weaken the appetite for risk, positive for the U.S. currency. In addition, the bank draws attention to the fact that the recent increase in returns, including the British government bonds, do not look quite positive development for the currency risk, since it implies higher costs of borrowing by corporations, in the current environment may become a factor in slowing down the process of economic recovery. Meanwhile, a number of changes to the technical picture is also not look particularly favorable for the British currency, and BNP Paribas believes that in the short term, the pound / dollar may continue to feel under pressure.

Australian dollar: Analysts continue to raise forecasts for the currency

Australian dollar reduced the second day in a row: the currency has already lost 1% of the 29 per cent growth with a minimum of five, achieved in October last year at 0.6009. Now the Australian exchange rate fell by 3 cents, half the January closing the gap. Nevertheless, analysts raise forecasts for the Australian dollar faster than any other major currencies against the backdrop of optimism about the recovery of world economy. The average forecast for the end of the year for the Australian currency in the monthly survey conducted by agency Bloomberg, has increased this year by 14% - this is the most significant increase in the forecast against the U.S. dollar among the 16 most popular currencies. Strategists of BNP Paribas, Wells Fargo & Co. and another 21 companies have raised their forecasts in May against the backdrop of rumors that Chinese demand for Australian exports, ranging from iron to the wool once again begin to grow. "Bears admitted himself defeated. So, the course of Australian currency undervalued and will continue to grow", - analysts believe.

IR IE Ty Invest: Sale has started. We recommend that you leave in the cache

Sale has started. We recommend that you leave in the cache.

Even yesterday afternoon, our stock market showed the first signal of weakness, had failed by day, more than 1.5%. However, immediately after the opening on Tuesday, our markets have covered the wave unmotivated sales. The process of strengthening the dollar, triggered a collapse in prices today in the oil market, which only deepened the movement of our market down. Indexes MICEX and RTS day losing more than 3% each.

It seems that the major part of investors willing to reduce their positions in the paper and go to the dollar. If the first transaction of the dollar on the MICEX were held today, at a price of 31.10, the dollar had for dinner potyazhelel to 1.6%, rising to a mark 31.57 rbl. Notably, investors do not stop caring for the currency, even a period of tax payments, which traditionally increases the demand for the ruble.

Thus, a neutral external background, we had the morning to dinner already replaced the bright red color. Moreover, neither the tension around the nuclear weapons in North Korea, nor the weak data on the economy of Germany, may not be an excuse to drop a market which we received today. Apparently, such a strong technical factors, as «double peak» in the index reinforces the desire of market participants to go into the cache. Symbolic level, this needs to be marked 970 points on the MICEX index.

MMC NorNikel (-4.5%) now closes the register of shareholders. However, demand for these securities, because of annual dividends from the company, no one is waiting. Rather, yesterday's bad reporting only to bolster sales. Incidentally, Goldman Sachs analysts believe investors should increase investment in the company of the mining sector, believing that the worst period for the commodity demand is over.

I think that the Russian stock market indices to the end of the day can go to lower levels, so our current recommendation - the cache. We continue to monitor the situation on the currency market.

Potavin Alexander

Principal Analyst IR "ITinvest"

(495) 933-32-32 ext. 226

potavin@iqi.ru

IC "MCC": Forecast. The market suffered a correction

Tuesday began hesitantly. Factors complexity medium term (including the decline in GDP) began to play into the hands "Bear" in a small perekuplennosti index RTS. Oil today reiterated the drop-down movement of electronic trading Monday on the rebound in the dollar and fears that OPEC will not change (not reduce) production quotas at a meeting in Vienna on 28 May. The dollar strengthened slightly against the ruble, which is fixed at the rally to support the euro and the aggressive position in North Korea. The latter continues the rhetoric about continued rocket launchings after yesterday's underground nuclear test. Japan has lost on the 0.39%. Europe has opened in the negative, that does not meet the expectations of Russian investors on Monday evening, triggering correction ..

Europe opens negatively after Asia and the data on consumer confidence in the United States. The index of business activity in Germany rose from 83.7 to 84.2 in May (expected 85) on Monday. On Tuesday in the United States goes Schiller house price index in the 17 and 18 consumer confidence (score increased from 39.2 to 43).

We believe that the previous rally will rely on MICEX 1002-1013 and expect a positive opening of the environment - the situation on the Futures in the United States does not extradite a strong negative feelings. In addition to consumer confidence, investors are awaiting the outcome of the Treasury auctions on Tuesday and Thursday

IPC "Instroyinvest: MICEX index losing 3.4%

MICEX Index was unable to overcome the level of Double Top in 1095, as a result of today directly from the continued opening of a correction downwards. Our idea of continuing a rising trend in the level of 1030 was erroneous. The next strong support is at 990-1000. MarketDelta shows the dominance of the sellers in the market. By the end of the trading surge in volatility may occur in the U.S. data on an index of consumer confidence.

Igor Blinov, analytical department IPC "Instroyinvest"

http://www.finrise.ru

What could be more vulnerable the dollar?

As rumors that Asian Central Bank buying up the U.S. dollar in order to prevent too rapid strengthening of their currencies may be a certain element of truth. However, according to analysts Calyon, such intervention is unlikely to turn the dollar trend. According to strategists bank, the dollar index has fallen by 10% from its peak, made 5 March 2009, with the possibility of further reduction was never revoked. In the meantime, Barclays Capital argued that the currency is more vulnerable than the U.S. dollar. Anyway, in the short term. Based on the model of fair value, bank analysts believe that the Canadian and New Zealand dollar looks overvalued relative to the U.S. currency. A fair value of the euro is overstated by as much as 7%. Strategists at Barclays Capital continues to hold Bear prognosis for the dollar in the medium-term period of time, however, recommend to observe great caution in the short term.

Barclays Capital. Euro / Franc: growth or consolidation?

Lack of development of bull's momentum in the pair euro / franc last week was a disappointment for strategists from Barclays Capital. The bank is likely to invalidate the bullish outlook for the euro / franc at 1.5350 with a view, if the pair falls below the level of 1.5125. In this case the couple is likely to range trade awaits. At this time, a pair of euro / franc traded at 1.5157.

Deutsche Bank: the rise in oil prices has supported the pair euro / dollar

Strategists from Deutsche Bank believes that a further rise in oil prices will further enhance a pair of Euro / dollar. According to the bank, the correlation between oil and this pair is extremely high. The decline in the dollar generally leads to an increase in U.S. currency-denominated oil prices. By contrast, the rise in oil prices has a negative pressure on the dollar, due to the fact that exporters invest more in European currencies.

In Standard Bank remained optimistic about the pound

In the Standard Bank to continue to adhere to optimistic forecasts for the pound / dollar: Analysts predict the growth of bank pair to 1.80 over the next 12 months, despite a decrease in the forecast for the British rating agency Standard & Poor's. How to find a bank, the agency S & P has not anything new about the precarious financial situation of the UK. Rating the country will not change, at least until the end of 2010. Nevertheless, strategists recommend that Standard Bank did not lose sight of the auctions for government bonds: if the government would not be able to implement this year the necessary amount of the state. bond rate of the pound may decline. Now a pair of pound / dollar was at 1.5788.

Correction of the pound / dollar may be continued

The British currency is now once again attempted to break above Ofer of $ 1.5940/50, but the bulls once again failed, which provoked a sharp decline in long positions of speculators, an additional reason for which, however, was the deterioration in investor sentiment against the backdrop of fears about possible unpleasant surprises with among European banks. Pound / dollar is rapidly spikiroval from session highs of $ 1.5860, and, after the foot, located below, have been performed, the couple continued to fall, in which she managed to reach bidy in the region of $ 1.5835/30. It bears the offensive so far has been stopped, but attempts to rise above now attract new vendors, and dealers see the risks of continuing a downward correction, noting that the break below $ 1.5830 would open the way to $ 1.5800/05 initially, and then to $ 1.5760/50.

OTP Bank: Today, we look forward to the opening of stock market in the neutral field

This morning outside a neutral background. In the United States and Europe in connection with the holiday auctions were held. At the present time (6.00 Moscow time) on the U.S. futures indices are near zero (0.03%).

Markets in Latin America yesterday traded in a positive light dynamics. Brazil's BOVESPA and Mexican BOLSA showed a growth of 0.49% and 0.44% respectively.

At auction in Asia in the morning indexes are moving mostly downward. Japanese NIKKEI 225 to 06:00 (Moscow time) falls by -0.89%, Korean KOSPI showed -1.17%, and the Chinese CSI200, on the contrary, is in the light plus (0.23%).

The first day of the week on the Russian stock market saw a continuation of Friday traffic in the wide lateral canal. In the absence of support for the holiday yesterday by Western investors, speculators changed motion vector market several times a day. Favorites of yesterday's auction were Sberbank preference shares (9.29%), Transneft (11.19%), Rostelecom (+4.21%), as well as ordinary shares RusGidro (8.27%). The remaining shares, for the most part, did not show pronounced trends. Seriously disappointed only paper Gazprom (-2.01%), and NorNikelya (-2.42%).

MICEX Index on the basis of trading session has decreased by -0.29% - to 1050.95 points and the RTS index rose by 0.45% - to 1017.92 points. Trading volume on MICEX amounted to 44.45 billion rubles.

Today, we look forward to the opening of stock market in a neutral area. Western markets are not traded. At the moment, minus the Asian area. Oil steady. Vector today's motion is difficult to determine, but the probability of decline, in our view, all the same above.

Trader OTP Bank
Podgórska Denis

Japan finished the fall

Japan has announced the passage of the economic "bottom". For the first time in the past three years, there is talk of improving the economic situation. In the wake of cautious optimism the local central bank did not change a key interest rate, keeping it at 0.1% per annum

It's time to start forming the list of states whose economies (by the authorities) has been "bottom". One of the first, it would appear Japan. Land of the Rising Sun has announced the spread of trends.

Bank of Japan on Friday found that the economy was the lowest point and that there has been signs of improvement, he also decided to keep interest rates constant at 0.1%, reported Bloomberg. The last time the Bank of Japan reduced interest rates in December. Prior to this, in late October, Japanese Central Bank lowered the key rate for the first time in seven years - from 0.5% to 0.3%.

"The pace of deterioration in the economic situation is likely to gradually decline, leading to a leveling of the economy", - says in a statement on the outcome of the Board of Directors. Thus, the Central Bank for the first time in nearly three years, improved assessment of the economic situation.

During the past fiscal year (which ended March 31, 2009), the Japanese economy fell by 3.5% and GDP continued to decline four quarters in succession. The decline in GDP this year was up 2% in accordance with the January forecast.

Strongest not only in the reporting period, but over the past half century, the collapse was detected in the I quarter of 2009 - 15,2% in comparison with I quarter of last year. But even these figures give hope for the best. Economists had expected a more substantial reduction in GDP forecasting 16.1% and even 16.5%. Compared with the previous four quarter fall in GDP was 4%.

You just wait and trust. Economists, and now the Japanese central bank with one voice talking about the beginning of recovery. I hope there is some reason. Industrial production in Japan rose in March for the first time in 6 months - at 1.6%, which is twice higher than analysts' expectations. The Japanese economy is suffering because of the sharp drop in exports since last September, but in March the first signs of easing recession. Exports rose last month compared to February for the first time since May 2008.

Earlier, Japanese Central Bank earlier corrected their estimates of GDP growth in fingodu beginning 1 April 2010, reducing them to 1.2% from 1.5% previously forecast. To achieve the goal is a record (by their standards) program to stimulate the economy. Its volume is 15.4 trillion yen ($ 158 billion).


IFX.RU

Creditworthiness United States - the main driver of market sentiment

Yen weakens the dollar and euro in Asian trading session. Players to buy foreign currency to the U.S. Treasury auction on sale of 2-year bonds, dealers said. Speculators now inactive. Basically, the market visible real-money accounts. U.S. Treasury plans today to sell 2-year bonds amounting to 40 billion dollars, a 5-year-old debt securities amounting to 35 billion on 27 May and 7-year paper in the amount of 26 billion on May 28. Also today, planned to sell 6-month and 3-month Treasury bills totaling 61 billion dollars. However, many players have expressed fears that the U.S. can lose the highest rating at AAA after Britain. The prices of bonds fall, causing the growth of profitability, the value of which still attract some Asian customers.

Mizuho Bank. Recommendations for major currency pairs

	Mizuho Bank. Shopping advice
Euro / dollar
Commentary	Euro has one of the strongest closures the week of October last year, although the pair still remained within the normal correctional settings. As we approach the crucial 1.4200 mark, we expect growth in implied volatility and enhance bovine Momentum.
Strategy	Buy at 1.3985 but only if you are willing to increase the position at lower to 1.3800. Stop should be placed below the 1.3700, a short-term goal - 1.4050, and is expected to increase substantially with the initial expectation of 1.4200 and then to 1.4550.
Dollar / yen
Commentary	Last week ended with the formation of dozhi near the level of correction of Fibonacci, the week was closed to the minimum level since February. Open interest in futures contracts to one-third of maximum levels of 2007, underlining the lack of interest in carry trades. The implicit volatility is expected to grow over the next two weeks as the couple will seek direction for further movement. We remain in camp bears.
Strategy	Open small short position of 94.80, but only if you are willing to increase their growing to 96.00 with a stop order above 97.00. The original objective - 93.55 next 92.50.
Pound / Dollar
Commentary	Pound showed the strongest closing since November, although still within correctional settings, with highs of 2007. Moving averages are now served bychi signals, implied volatility and Momentum also look positive for the bulls.
Strategy	Buy from 1.5900 to an increase in the reduction of 1.5750 and a stop below 1.5500. Increase confidence in the long positions break above 1.5955 with the expectation of an increase to 1.6100/1.6200 in the short term.

A new look at old things

"With over 18 years experience in the casino and detours the whole world, I decided that it was time to stop and focus on my passion for trading on financial markets. It took several years to move from a casual one-time investment to the regular daily commerce. Being an active trader I regularly conduct seminars on trade. At the moment I finished his book "Trading for Beginners." In fact, every trader has experimented with various types of moving averages. In this article I would like to invite you to look at the intersection of the various methods of moving averages, which I found are a very good way to determine the short-term change of trend. As we know, Moving averages are usually constructed by using the closing price bar. For example, if you build a 3-periodnye Moving averages, you would add the last three closed and the total value divided by three to get a simple moving average cost. Now I want to offer you a slightly different approach. I have always been a supporter to take the traditional approach and experiment by changing it. What if we try to use the price of the bar instead of opening the closure and what, if used for a sliding closure medium and the opening to the other? First, most graphics programs allow you to use to open, maximum, minimum, or close to build a moving average. In the example below, the daily schedule of "Dow Jones", I used a 5-periodnuyu exponential sliding average closing price and 6-periodnuyu exponential Moving Average price discovery. As you can see, this combination allows you to effectively catch the short-term change of trend.

In the following example, the time schedule of EUR / USD, you can see that the combination of indoor / outdoor work really well. Of course, in any market there are periods of consolidation and in this case, if you used any method of moving averages, there will be quick turn. To avoid this, you should use some type of filter or approach that will help you to refrain from dealings with a low probability.


You can use the ADX, Stochastics and MACD as a tool to help you filter out market noise, as I use the addition of other structures of the time.


In the following example, 4-hour schedule of GBP / USD you can see that on 24 th September 2004. at 4:00 was the intersection of the 5-periodnoy exponential moving average closing price above 6-periodnoy exponential moving average of prices of opening.


Although the signal was at 4-hour scale to help identify the best entry point, you can move to a smaller time scale, such as a 30-minute schedule. As you can see, the 30-minute schedule was quite a lot of crossings of the 5-periodnoy


exponential moving average of opening price is higher or lower than 6-periodnoy exponential moving average closing price. There are many ways to trade on the combination of moving averages, but the most balanced approach is that, having received the signal at large time scale, then move to a smaller scale and wait for rollback. The first signal after the downgrade to a smaller time scale is usually a pretty good entry point. If it was up to the crossing of large time scales, it should move to a smaller time scale and wait for when the market will recover and then give another buy signal (intersection of the top). To signal the sale is just the opposite approach.

Once you get a signal at a short time scale, depending on the location of the support you need, as a rule, place your first stop, the warrant under the closest level of support. If the market starts to move in your direction, you can move your stop-order in a way that he followed the market, are placed under the most recent level of support.

In this article I used the exponential Moving Average, but I also experimented with different types of moving averages - balanced, smooth, simple, etc. You can also experiment with different lengths of moving averages.

Forex Magazine
based on www.tradejuice.com

Lanes

Strips CCI

In 2005, the software package "Ensign Windows" introduced technology "PriceFinder.", Is perhaps the most significant innovation over the last year, which can be used with any technical tool. The graph below, for example, it is used to indicate the price at which the indicator would be "commodity channel index" (CCI) moved higher values of 133 or below -133.
The upper green line is the price that causes the CCI to move above 133. Shortly after 14:00 on the price schedule, the price crosses the upper green line up, and the CCI indicator is in the bottom window is moved above the value 133.

And each time, when the price is traded below the lower red line, the indicator CCI is below -133 values. Green and red lines create a visual channel, which allows the trader to see at what price CCI crosses any given significant level.


Lines Полос CCI 133 jobs created by the following: For "PriceFinder." must set the appropriate parameters, so the program knows which set of conditions


must be executed. Line A defines the condition that the CCI indicator was above the level of 133. This condition is either true or false and is set in the global variable [1]. Line B directly activates algorithm "PriceFinder" (pricing), which builds green price at which the condition of line A will change. When the CCI is below 133, it will set a higher price, which will make the move above the level of CCI 133. When the CCI is above 133, the "PriceFinder" find a price which will make the CCI indicator to move below 133. Lines C and D are used to construct the red line displays the value of the price at which the CCI indicator to move below the level of -133. Line C sets the test conditions to be fulfilled. Line D to find a price that will lead to fulfillment of conditions from S.

Labels [B] and [D] on the line B and line D shows the price as determined by a "PriceFinder", which is shown in the chart at the end of lines. CCI indicator is currently located above the level of -133, so that the value of the red line is equal to 1205.25 - this is the price that must show the market-based instruments at the 3-minute bar to make the CCI indicator to cross the level of - 133 from top to bottom. So far, the market traded above 1205.25, the value of the indicator CCI will remain above the level of -133. This information can be very useful in the case of CCI indicator is used to make trading decisions.

While the example used the values 133 and -133 as the target levels, it is obvious that can be used by all levels of CCI as a defining and "PriceFinder" build relevant channel strips. This instrument is totally flexible in the application. Can be defined even for complex multi-consensus search terms for which "PriceFinder" will find the answer.

Strips RSI
This example is similar to the example Полос CCI 133, but illustrates the construction of Полос Relative Strength Index (RSI), to indicate when the RSI is above 70 or below 30. Though the graph can also be placed directly Indicator RSI, it is not in the example. I want the reader to obtain a new understanding of the RSI, looking only at the bands RSI.


The following are used for the above example parameters:

Line A defines the control condition, meaning that the RSI indicator is above the level of 70.
Line B shows the green price at which the RSI indicator to fulfill the conditions defined by line A, ie reaches values of 70.
Line C sets the test condition that the value of the indicator RSI was below 30.
Line D shows the color value of the price at which the condition is defined by line C, ie RSI value reaches 30.
Line of E allows to build a middle line between the red and green line. Therefore, this line indicates whether the RSI is above or below zero.

The bands Bollindzhera
This approach is somewhat different from traditional Полос Bollindzhera. Strips Bollindzhera directly below the graph held in green. Program "PriceFinder" builds a blue line to show the importance of the price at which the maximum price bar crosses the upper band Bollindzhera and the importance of the price at which the minimum price bar crosses the lower band Bollindzhera.


Initially, it may be thought that green and blue lines must match. But this is not quite true. As the price moves to the line of bands Bollindzher line Bollindzher bands will move away from the price of a rise in volatility. For example, the price is now at a point 1206.75. If the price would go down to touch the bottom green line Bollindzher bands, the green line would have moved even lower. The price will reach the bottom line of bands Bollindzher in a significant price equal to 1205.25. This illustrates the effectiveness of the tool "PriceFinder" in the performance of complex calculations to find the necessary solutions.

Line A defines the control condition for the line B, for which you want to find the price. Note that line B to find a price that makes a given condition is true. This differs slightly from the previous examples, where "PriceFinder" find a price, which led to a change in the status of the verification conditions (true - false).

In this case, there is value pricing, which leads only to a change in the status of true. The point is that once the maximum is located above the upper bands Bollindzher, there is no other prices that will change this state. Lower prices do not change the maximum. Therefore, it is logical to use "PriceFinder" only when the maximum is below the top bands Bollindzher to find a higher price at which the maximum reach the top bands Bollindzher. Please note that when the maximum is already above the upper bands Bollindzher, "PriceFinder" does not hold the line. This is because there is a break in the line "PriceFinder". The blue lines are violated, when verifiable conditions are already true.

Strips of variability
Strips of variability (PI) calculated levels of support and resistance for tomorrow's price activity. They work perfectly as a daily support and resistance areas and are often the domain of a turn.

The formula for band variability using historical volatility of a single day by multiplying the historical volatility on the square root of 1 / 365, which gives the value 0.05234.

Delta PI = Historical Variability * Square root (1 / 365) * closing price of the day * Factor size Upper Band (Resistance) = closing price of Delta + PI Lower Band (Support) = closing price - Delta PI

Strips of variability used for market surveillance, taking into account size: 1.0, 1.28, 1.5 and 2.0. This tool can be used in the software package "Ensign Windows" using their own parameters.


Line A calculates the 30-bar historical fluidity and keeps the value of global variable [1]. A typical value of - 17.50. Line B corrects decimal Historical variability, by dividing it by 100, and again stores the value in [1]. [1] = 0.01 * Historical Variability of Line C multiplies the historical fluidity of the value of 0.05234, which is the square root of 1 / 365. The result is stored in [2].

Line D calculates the delta PI = Closing * * 0.05234 historical fluidity. This value is stored in the Delta PI [3].
Line E multiplies Delta PI for one of the factors of size, which in this example is 1.50. The result is stored in [4].
The line F & G is building a pair of Полос variability for Delta PI in [4], adding this value and subtracting it from closure.
The line H, I and J is building another pair Полос variability of size equal to Factor 2.

Values Полос variability, which are now being used as support and resistance levels for the next day.

Forex Magazine
based on www.ensignsoftware.com

China ahead of the world-wide

As the economic crisis, many analysts, apparently convinced of the opinion that an absolute truth, which for a moment was questioned once again proved its sanctity. Despite all the talk of a rupture relationships, the United States remains the center of the economic universe. The U.S. economy has led to a world economic recession, and now she is, apparently, intends to take it out of crisis - in spite of the monthly report on employment in the United States, which lost the job in April, even half a million Americans. By the end of last year, when consumer demand in the U.S. unexpectedly fell, and U.S. banks have stopped providing loans, other countries are in dire situations. A huge amount of consumer goods in the United States, of course, are not American-made products. If the American consumer demand for durable goods unexpectedly falls under attack caught the world's producers. That is why the fall in industrial production in Germany, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea in the last months of 2008 was so significant. Reducing U.S. demand is also the cause of the rapid reduction in the volume of international trade.

In addition, it is clear that before the credit crisis, the economies of many developing countries has been beneficial for soft lending conditions in the American and British banks. During the boom, banks can easily raise capital by increasing the ability to create a securitized assets and their subsequent sale to other financial institutions - pension funds and insurance companies. Part of funds raised in such a way impinge on the American real estate market. The remaining funds were given to companies and households in developing countries as a credit. For some time, the rise of developing economies are directly dependent on the ability of these countries to borrow in Western banks. Tightening credit conditions, however, eliminated this source of capital adequacy - that is why the country's so-B20 tended to increase the amount of funds available to the IMF. The IMF now plays the role of western banks. In other words, when the situation in the United States began to develop not according to plan, the same happened in all other countries. In fact, in many countries, the economic slowdown this year will be much deeper than in America. Perhaps they had no problems with the sub-lending, over-the soft conditions of bank loans or too greedy consumers. Nevertheless, from an economic standpoint, they became satellites of the United States.

In fact, it is very easy to believe in hundred percent approval. But the reality is rarely black and white. Yes, in the past few months, Japan was on the edge of economic abyss, partly due to excessive dependence on the United States. By the end of this year's growth the Japanese economy is likely to decline by more than six per cent. Meanwhile, in China things are much better. According to Hongbina Koo, chief economist for China at HSBC, the growth of Chinese economy this year may increase by more than seven percent, despite a significant decline in export production. A few months ago, many analysts believed that China would not be able to afford for themselves to survive the global economic crisis. He, more than any other country, dependent on U.S. demand. Products developed in the United States and owned by American companies, but most of the hard work done at the Chinese factories. Loyalty to these arguments, it is not sufficient either to confirm or refute. Clearly, the growth rate of China's economy declined sharply in the last quarter of last year, reflecting a significant drop in export production.

Nevertheless, China - this is a hard nut to crack, and he proved it during the world economic recession of 2001. And many analysts dropped from the accounts of the prospects for economic development in China, however, when the volume of exports declined, domestic economy has shown much better results than expected. The same can be said about the current situation. Now, when the main way to combat the credit crisis, recognized the expansion of fiscal policy, China is in a more advantageous position than many. With a large surplus of trade balance, which, in turn, points to an adequate level of domestic savings, the Government of China may raise capital to finance infrastructure projects. Many of these projects began before the crisis. Now, just move the dates of their completion at an earlier date, in order to stimulate demand in the next few quarters, rather than following, say, five years as previously planned. Meanwhile, despite the constant concern of Western analysts about the non-borrowing from Chinese banks for several years, circumstances have changed now.

On account of western banks of the huge volume of bad debts, and, ironically, the Government of Western countries adopt the Chinese model of state-managed credit. The key difference is that Chinese banks will never allow themselves to play games on securitization - the loans were financed mainly through the good old deposits, thereby reducing the risk of domestic credit crisis. This year the growth rate of China's economy would be impressive in comparison with other countries. Yet they will be significantly less than the targets that the country has shown a couple of years ago. At the beginning of this decade, the growth rate of China's economy is steadily expressed to two significant figures. Other countries, including India, have sought to imitate the Chinese economic miracle.

These years of exceptional success. The volume of China's economy is only a third of the U.S. economy (the share of consumer spending in the GDP of China is much more modest). Thus, if China does not increase the rate of economic growth, the country will not be able to offset the negative impact of the global economic downturn. Yet the economic flexibility in China is changing the nature of the current economic recession in the following two aspects. First, countries that produce commodities, which tend to have the most significant losses in periods of recession because of falling commodity prices, show slightly better results than usual. After the United States, China is the biggest consumer of many metals, and petroleum products. If it were not for China, the fall in commodity prices would be far more significant. Therefore, for the Middle East, Latin America, Australia and Canada, this factor has only a positive value. Secondly, for countries, frightened of its excessive dependence on the U.S. economy, China provides a good opportunity to reduce this dependence. If the Chinese economic cycle is not fully consistent with the economic cycle of the United States from other countries is absolutely reasonable to build economic relations with China in order to diversify risk.

Why should depend exclusively on the United States, especially if the United States will use all means in order to shift their economic problems to other countries (through the stimulation of domestic bank loans, the depreciation of the dollar, which foreign lenders perceive as a failure of United States of their obligations, government support for domestic industry expense of foreign competitors)? If the medium-term debt burden of private and public sectors will serve depressing factor for the U.S. economy, the desire of other countries to acquire reliable trading partners will grow significantly. China has already begun to prepare the ground for this process, entering into more long-term commercial transactions in their own currency rather than in dollars, which then letting the yuan can become an alternative to the U.S. dollar as reserve currency. And while many will be years before China takes a leading position in the global economy, we can already observe the first signs that America is beginning to lose its status as a major economic force in the world.

Stephen King,

HSBC

The influence of personality in the trade

Brett N. Stinberger - Doctor of Philosophy and Professor of Psychiatry at the Medical University in Syracuse, NY. New York. He is also an active trader and writes articles on market psychology. The author of the book "Psychology of Trade, 2003. Doctor Stinberger published over 50 articles on short-term approaches to behavioral change for traders.

I would describe their approach to trade as follows for the trend based on the study. By this I mean that I'm trying to trade on the strength or weakness of the market after it was revealed. However, I do not automatically assume that any trend - my friend. Instead, I use the historical study of market behavior, to distinguish between trend movements that are likely to continue, and those that are most likely to turn. This is a very disciplined approach to trade, which requires considerable time for study and training, as well as the ability to hold the market movements and trade. In his book "Psychology of trading", I referred to the individual characteristics that tend to distinguish successful traders from the less successful. Some of these features will probably also will affect the success of traders, with which they are traded by the method of following the trend. Below are some of the self, which may be useful for determining the face if you considerable difficulties in trading on the market trends. Please answer "yes" or "no" to each of the twelve questions before you continue:

1. When the market goes against you, you often have problems?
2. You enjoy (or enjoyed as a child), Inline Skating, or other forms of entertainment, accompanied by sensations?
3. You will often defer any work?
4. Do you consider yourself vulnerable to a change of mood - sometimes good, sometimes bad?
5. You generally prefer to leave the house and meet with friends rather than stay home and read a good book or watch an interesting movie?
6. You often apologized to the other, because they forgot to do something that should have been done?
7. You are usually inflated, tense or depressed?
8. If you had a choice, you would prefer to try exotic food, about which you have never heard, rather than the familiar dishes?
9. When you have something needed to be done at home, you tend to do so hastily as it will turn out, rather than carefully and thoroughly?
10. After losing the deal, you often feel guilty and looking for a reason directly yourself?
11. Have you tried or regularly use two or more restorative drugs (except alcohol) in your life?
12. You are often late for appointments or events you had planned?

If you answered "yes" to all or most of the questions 1, 4, 7 and 10, you are likely to occupy a very high level on a scale that reflects the "nevrotizm. Nevrotizm - this is the tendency of a negative emotional state, which manifests itself as anger, anxiety or depression.

If you answered "yes" to all or most of questions 2, 5, 8 and 11, you are likely to occupy a high level on a scale called "openness to experimentation." Openness reflects the tendency to seek innovation and risk. If you answered "yes" to all or most of questions 3, 6, 9 and 12, you will potentially occupy a low level on a scale reflecting the "good faith". Integrity measures the extent to which a person focuses on the duties, responsibilities and dependency.

All other things being equal, the individual qualities of an ideal model for the method of following the trend - the high reliability, low nevrotizma and the low level of openness to experimentation. A good follower of the trend followed the rules and systems approach (good faith), will not impulsively join or withdraw from the transactions under the influence of emotions (nevrotizm) and will sell for profit, not for the initiation (low openness). From my experience, some of the best traders in the system are not bright people grandstanding. They are meticulous and good at their studies and performance, and do not allow their emotions or needs dislodge them from the track. On the contrary, people who are inclined to take risks and who yearn for something new, and initiation of action, often impulsive and unwise risks. Very often, neurotic emotions prevail after Losing a series of high-risk transactions. These people are trafficked for the excitation and sense of self, not just for profit. Even if they offer a proven, profitable trading system, they will not be able to faithfully follow it. System traders often focus their energies on research and determining the optimal parameters to improve the profitability of the system. Equally important is to find a trading strategy that would be consistent with the identity of the trader. Traders who are relatively unwilling to take risks can be traded for more than short-term time scales and / or a lower position than those who are more tolerant of risk. Traders with a higher propensity for innovation and initiation can trade in more markets or market-based instruments, rather than concentrate on relatively few. Are there people who are simply not set up for trade? I would say that yes, as some people may not be a fighter pilot or surgery. Is difficult to imagine the trader sought to be consistent and sustained success without the ability to take disciplined risk. There is nothing unusual is to find a trader who is losing in the approach are following the trend, because it does not reach the market to their individual needs. One of the best trading strategies that can be used, is to find appropriate outlets for attention / affection, achievement, self-esteem, emotional satisfaction and excitement out of the market. Sometimes the traders with whom I spoke, and explained to me that trade is the rest of their lives. They do not realize that their "passion" and "obsession" with respect to markets is likely to seek their plans, giving them undue pressure. If you have a trading system, and you will faithfully execute the system, the trade must be to some extent, boring and monotonous. Better to enjoy roller skating in their spare time than the "ride" on your trading account!

Forex Magazine
based on www.brettsteenbarger.com

Interview with trader: Steve Woods

Steve Woods is an author, lecturer and a veteran of the stock market analysts. Steve is the author of "An analysis of the road", which is detailed in his book "Analysis of navigation, powerful technical indicators using price and volume." His approach is the only method which focuses on finding a change in shareholders, watching "turnover" of shares actually available for trading (ie, swimming). His method of considering the price, volume and the floating supply of shares as interrelated. He has published articles on his method in "The technical analysis of shares and commodity futures, as well as in magazines" World Trade "and" Active Trader. " He is also the author of "An analysis of the road" in the newsletter.

Steve Woods is an active trader, trading a full-time basis, since 1990. First, it basically followed the method of William O'Neill and Nicholas Darvasa. His style of trading has evolved over the years, and he now finds himself on the movement of the trader. His trading system brings its own concept of the "Analysis of the road" with the methods of analysis. His tools of choice of time enabled him to become an excellent technical analyst, as well as highly effective trader.

Steve has been a visiting lecturer at the Association of the market of futures and options, and Atlanta offices of Virginia Association of market analysts, the Washington Society of market analysts and investors Tampa Club. He is a certified specialist in the University of Virginia.

Question: How did you first interested in investing and trading in the markets?
Steve: Thirty years ago I was engaged so that the net bottom of a very old sailboat, which was repaired. My boss is not only responsible for the reconstruction project, but also played on the futures market directly to their dining table, using only paper, pencil and paper for charts and a telephone. I was struck by a way of life of this man and thought that someday I would do the same.

Question: Have you ever traded options, and if so, what is your most preferred strategy?
Steve: I traded options on short-term basis.

Question: What do you most like is to be a trader?
Steve: Freedom. I love to be your own boss. Defining your own schedule. The endless process of research and of course the opportunity to earn money.

Question: How do you view the loss, and how you determined your threshold of risk before you enter into the market?
Steve: Losses - this is just a fact of life. They can become good teachers, if your conscience can look at them. Study of loss of insight as always. The challenge is to keep losses as small as far as possible. I try to lose no more than 1% or 2% on any transaction. I mainly use the trade on the movement, thus allowing their risk to a transaction to determine the size of the position.

Question: Do you prefer long or short-term strategy?
Steve: I have a short-term trader, if the market goes against me, and long-term trader, when I am on the right side of the market.

Question: What are some key rules, how do you think are most important for the trader, which must be borne in mind when evaluating any potential trading opportunity?
Steve: I begin with a technical assessment. If the market does not look well enough on the schedule, I am not interested. If the market looks really good tool to schedule, I appreciate the more fundamental factors, and how the market reacts to the news.

Q: What markets do you prefer to trade and track with your analysis tools?
Steve: I traded in the stock market, and I focus on the actions that have a "turnover of the road" less than a hundred days.

Question: What was your most unforgettable transaction?
Steve: The very first event that I ever bought was "Cisco Systems" in 1990. I bought 12 shares for $ 400. I do not know what to do and sold them to a small loss, a few weeks later, when it seemed to me that the market is wide sale. Now I know that those are my $ 400 would become $ 200,000 over the next 10 years. It was a very important lesson.

Question: With all the variety of technical and fundamental analysis tools, as a beginner trader avoid information overload or "analysis paralysis"?
Steve: I think the best way to avoid information overload is to "keep things simple." Financial markets - this is not the science of building rockets. Simple tools work best. You should use common sense. The most important part of trading arsenal is a trader's "shoulders." You can have the biggest set of tools in the world, but if your head is not working properly, you will continue to "mark time".

Question: What do you think allows you to successfully trade the markets?
Steve: I have an advantage over the large number of traders, because I use graphs and analysis Swimming Swimming. This is a valuable tool for me. I never make a bargain, not seeing a stock traded on a turnover.

Q: What do you think the biggest misconception novice traders to trade the markets?
Steve: Beginners do not understand how truly earn the money that the basis for this is hard work and efforts. They think that the market - a place where you can make easy money without much effort. They think that people in the financial markets did not earn their money to work. They do not understand how much time and effort needed to be consistently successful in the markets and that is the place to really appreciate and understand themselves and their values. The market can lead to large external and internal freedom, if you're willing to look at their weaknesses. Book Vik Speranadeo Methods masters of Wall Street "provided me great help in this regard.

Q: What advice would you give a man starting to trade the markets?
Steve: Read and learn, read and learn, read and learn. Then take a small amount of money, and start to trade - this is the best way to learn. Trade in virtual accounts does not allow you to feel the emotional side, which you will eventually have to deal.

Question: Can you describe a normal trading day of preparation before the performance of the transaction?
Steve: I get up at 5 am to start the day as well as only I can. I look at the large number of graphs. I draw attention to some analysts, who, in my opinion, are the best in the business. I will gradually move from the general analysis to the very essence of a particular marketing tool, and then decide what I might be invested.

Question: What is the decision-making process do you go to choose a particular transaction and the specific market sectors, which would be worthy of their money?
Steve: Market-based instruments should have a certain price and the volume at a specific level of support or resistance, and I always look at those markets that match my criteria. I love to see the force of the movement. Over the past when the market-based instruments have a strong movement on strong volume, he has provided support when the price comes back there again.

Q: What types of analysis you use to find great trading opportunities?
Steve: The analysis of voyage, the level of analysis, Fibonacci levels, Moving averages, an analysis of income per share, and ABC.

Question: How would you describe your approach to the markets?
Steve: to investigate in detail all the nuances of the market up to the essence. Keep things simple.

Forex Magazine
based on www.optionetics.com