Ben Bernanke, the man of the year 2009

"Too big companies to allow them to go bankrupt - it is one of the biggest challenges faced by our country."

Fed Chairman spoke on 8 December, the chief editor of TIME Richard Stengel, managing editor, John Hugh, an assistant editor in chief Michael Duffy and chief correspondent Michael Grunwald, talking about everything from the economy and ending with the contents of his wallet. Below are some excerpts of that conversation:

TIME: Explain in general terms for our readers, what has been done over the past year and how it affected their lives, for better or for worse.

Ben Bernarke: Almost all major financial institutions in the world is also facing bankruptcy. And we knew, and I knew, based on their political experience, that if the financial system will collapse, in the sense that many large companies go bankrupt, the financial sector will cease to function, and implications for the global economy would be catastrophic. We would have probably had to deal with depression, comparable to effects of the depression in 1930. Such events would not hypothetical.

Agree, there is a certain irony in the fact that a man who has spent a lifetime studying the economic history of one day wakes up and realizes that now he is in the center of the story during a very unusual title.

Well, of course I did not expect such an event, when he came to Washington in 2002. Undoubtedly. When I became chairman of the Fed in 2006, I hoped that my main goals would be improving the management, coordination and monitoring of policies. We were certainly aware of the risks of financial crisis, however, of such size and danger, we did not expect. I would like, but it was not the case.

This year you could move a little farther than the previous chairman of the Fed. Are you still confident that the awareness of people about what is happening at the Federal Reserve brings a positive result?

Yes. In the past, the Fed chairman did not apply to people directly. I felt that the problem was not only a misunderstanding of what makes the Fed, but I also knew that fear and uncertainty that now and then appeared in various surveys related to the fact that people do not understand what is happening with the economy and financial system . And I thought it would be very useful, as chairman of the Fed, go out and talk directly with people who try to explain what we are doing and why, that is likely to happen in the future. I think it helped some. It is true that the Fed is faced with strong political pressure and it is unpopular in many circles. Work Fed is to make the right decisions, to seek long-term interests for the essence of the economic system, often, such measures are unpopular. But they are necessary for a favorable outcome.

The money that the Fed releases and what we spend on subsidies - are one and the same. The rest we have to borrow. There are lots of people who would say that this system can not be sustained, and the only solution may be some kind of tax, for example, the sales tax and VAT. Do you favor one of these alternatives?

The way I presented it to Congress said that, I strictly uphold the law of arithmetic. This law means that if you're a person with a low-tax, you are responsible for finding ways in which you save your expenses so that there was an imbalance between revenues and expenditures. In the same laws of arithmetic, if you or anyone else believes that government spending is important and believe that the cost of major programs are to grow - that you should figure out how to reach revenues to offset expenses. So, once again, I think that is the main task of the Congress. I talked about the deficit, because I think that the budget deficit strongly influences the economic and financial stability. We should talk about it. However, given the specifics of achieving financial balance, it is still the responsibility of elected officials.

You said that banks are still in the process of recovery. Tell us more about what this means.

The situation in the banks stabilized. They have built up capital and therefore are in better shape than we were. They are engaged in lending, but at insufficient levels to maintain a healthy recovery. One important reason is the loss incurred by them, and what they went through, so now they are very conservative in the conditions are still very weak economy. As the organ of banking supervision, we are in a difficult situation. We limit it clear to banks that want them to make loans to credit-worthy borrowers. It is in the interests of the bank, is in the interests of the economy, and, of course, is in the interests of borrowers. The problem is that banks have already given enough credit, which can not be repaid, so we do not want the new "bad" loans. Thus, we try to work with the banks, so that we can be confident that they will be given as much credit for viable as possible, we want to be sure that they have sufficient capital, short-term financing, and experts and regulators do not unreasonably denied loans. We want to work with banks to make sure that they comply with the balance between prudence and caution, giving good loans for the benefit of the economy and their own profit.

Do not slikshom much money the bankers?

I think that the bankers should recognize that the government and taxpayers have saved the financial system from collapse last year. Recognizing this, I think that the bankers have to look in the mirror and decide what might need to exercise more restraint in how much they currently pay, given that taxpayers have the power to save the entire system.

Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley returned the money back, but they have become bank holding companies, and is now governed by certain articles of the Federal Reserve, right?

Yes, in the long term, I think we need tools to get rid of companies that are too big to fail. This is a big problem. I want to be very clear: "too big to go bust" - a huge problem facing the country, and we must take steps to eliminate this problem.

There were times you have days when waking up, you do not know what to do next?

I want to remember the lessons of the Depression and that showed Franklin Roosevelt: when all the traditional methods have failed, the need to try new ideas. And he really wanted to try unconventional methods when traditional proved useless.

Time
December 16

Interview with trader: Steve Woods

Steve Woods is an author, lecturer and a veteran of the stock market analysts. Steve is the author of "An analysis of the road", which is detailed in his book "Analysis of navigation, powerful technical indicators using price and volume." His approach is the only method which focuses on finding a change in shareholders, watching "turnover" of shares actually available for trading (ie, swimming). His method of considering the price, volume and the floating supply of shares as interrelated. He has published articles on his method in "The technical analysis of shares and commodity futures, as well as in magazines" World Trade "and" Active Trader. " He is also the author of "An analysis of the road" in the newsletter.

Steve Woods is an active trader, trading a full-time basis, since 1990. First, it basically followed the method of William O'Neill and Nicholas Darvasa. His style of trading has evolved over the years, and he now finds himself on the movement of the trader. His trading system brings its own concept of the "Analysis of the road" with the methods of analysis. His tools of choice of time enabled him to become an excellent technical analyst, as well as highly effective trader.

Steve has been a visiting lecturer at the Association of the market of futures and options, and Atlanta offices of Virginia Association of market analysts, the Washington Society of market analysts and investors Tampa Club. He is a certified specialist in the University of Virginia.

Question: How did you first interested in investing and trading in the markets?
Steve: Thirty years ago I was engaged so that the net bottom of a very old sailboat, which was repaired. My boss is not only responsible for the reconstruction project, but also played on the futures market directly to their dining table, using only paper, pencil and paper for charts and a telephone. I was struck by a way of life of this man and thought that someday I would do the same.

Question: Have you ever traded options, and if so, what is your most preferred strategy?
Steve: I traded options on short-term basis.

Question: What do you most like is to be a trader?
Steve: Freedom. I love to be your own boss. Defining your own schedule. The endless process of research and of course the opportunity to earn money.

Question: How do you view the loss, and how you determined your threshold of risk before you enter into the market?
Steve: Losses - this is just a fact of life. They can become good teachers, if your conscience can look at them. Study of loss of insight as always. The challenge is to keep losses as small as far as possible. I try to lose no more than 1% or 2% on any transaction. I mainly use the trade on the movement, thus allowing their risk to a transaction to determine the size of the position.

Question: Do you prefer long or short-term strategy?
Steve: I have a short-term trader, if the market goes against me, and long-term trader, when I am on the right side of the market.

Question: What are some key rules, how do you think are most important for the trader, which must be borne in mind when evaluating any potential trading opportunity?
Steve: I begin with a technical assessment. If the market does not look well enough on the schedule, I am not interested. If the market looks really good tool to schedule, I appreciate the more fundamental factors, and how the market reacts to the news.

Q: What markets do you prefer to trade and track with your analysis tools?
Steve: I traded in the stock market, and I focus on the actions that have a "turnover of the road" less than a hundred days.

Question: What was your most unforgettable transaction?
Steve: The very first event that I ever bought was "Cisco Systems" in 1990. I bought 12 shares for $ 400. I do not know what to do and sold them to a small loss, a few weeks later, when it seemed to me that the market is wide sale. Now I know that those are my $ 400 would become $ 200,000 over the next 10 years. It was a very important lesson.

Question: With all the variety of technical and fundamental analysis tools, as a beginner trader avoid information overload or "analysis paralysis"?
Steve: I think the best way to avoid information overload is to "keep things simple." Financial markets - this is not the science of building rockets. Simple tools work best. You should use common sense. The most important part of trading arsenal is a trader's "shoulders." You can have the biggest set of tools in the world, but if your head is not working properly, you will continue to "mark time".

Question: What do you think allows you to successfully trade the markets?
Steve: I have an advantage over the large number of traders, because I use graphs and analysis Swimming Swimming. This is a valuable tool for me. I never make a bargain, not seeing a stock traded on a turnover.

Q: What do you think the biggest misconception novice traders to trade the markets?
Steve: Beginners do not understand how truly earn the money that the basis for this is hard work and efforts. They think that the market - a place where you can make easy money without much effort. They think that people in the financial markets did not earn their money to work. They do not understand how much time and effort needed to be consistently successful in the markets and that is the place to really appreciate and understand themselves and their values. The market can lead to large external and internal freedom, if you're willing to look at their weaknesses. Book Vik Speranadeo Methods masters of Wall Street "provided me great help in this regard.

Q: What advice would you give a man starting to trade the markets?
Steve: Read and learn, read and learn, read and learn. Then take a small amount of money, and start to trade - this is the best way to learn. Trade in virtual accounts does not allow you to feel the emotional side, which you will eventually have to deal.

Question: Can you describe a normal trading day of preparation before the performance of the transaction?
Steve: I get up at 5 am to start the day as well as only I can. I look at the large number of graphs. I draw attention to some analysts, who, in my opinion, are the best in the business. I will gradually move from the general analysis to the very essence of a particular marketing tool, and then decide what I might be invested.

Question: What is the decision-making process do you go to choose a particular transaction and the specific market sectors, which would be worthy of their money?
Steve: Market-based instruments should have a certain price and the volume at a specific level of support or resistance, and I always look at those markets that match my criteria. I love to see the force of the movement. Over the past when the market-based instruments have a strong movement on strong volume, he has provided support when the price comes back there again.

Q: What types of analysis you use to find great trading opportunities?
Steve: The analysis of voyage, the level of analysis, Fibonacci levels, Moving averages, an analysis of income per share, and ABC.

Question: How would you describe your approach to the markets?
Steve: to investigate in detail all the nuances of the market up to the essence. Keep things simple.

Forex Magazine
based on www.optionetics.com

Dynamic equilibrium. Interview with trader: Alex Silver

Question: How did you start trading?

The thing is that I started selling back in 88-89 he was in the composition of the cooperative, where we bought, brought from the West Second-hand computers, upgraded them and then sold on the domestic market. If you talk about currency trading, then this has forced me to deal with life in 91 th, when the Union began to slowly dilapidate and having problems with payments between the various republics of the then USSR. First it was the scheme rasshivki payments, then the trade soft currencies. Naturally, all this for real money - on margin trading and then the speech was not. About Forex first heard about the same time, but it is at a level "as they are there all this organized." Dealing with the bank came in more detail in 95, and 96 I was even delayed in Dealing center of a large bank in Moscow, but, read in detail the terms of trade (if min.depo was $ 10tys when min.pozitsii of $ 0.5 million), I realized it is too risky, and more resembles a game in a casino than to trade currencies.

However, a certain impression, of course, it has made on me. On the Internet trading slightly acquainted in 99-2000 he was, but I then lived in Presnensky shaft and vydelenka it cost a lot of money - I was sorry to spend in the cause, the successful result of which I, at that time was still not sure. And when in 2002-m moved away, where there was a home local area network, we first began to explore the potential of Internet trading.

Question: Who are your mentors and why?
One of my good friend, former counterpart in soft currencies, now co-owner of a small bank in Moscow. I turned to him for help in August 2002. In September, I introduced him to its developed trading system in a 4-hour shift on the base 4 with risk of 5% for position and 20% in the 4 position. He looked all of this quite closely, smiled
and proposed trading schemes through his dealings (by phone) with a deposit of $ 2000. But, at the opening of each position, I additionally had to say in one sentence the reason for the opening (the dealers have been warned, and without the proposal did not take my instructions to the opening) This was excellent training for the trade, as I then understood, although the need to articulate the reason , dial up to the dealer, talk to him and I seriously straining or irritating, but it is formed and the end-all, a sensible approach to open / close positions.

Question: What was your most successful and most unsuccessful transaction?
Frankly, from the very beginning I have not shared their trade for individual transactions. More precisely, it would be to talk about periods of trade. say, the most successful period was in June-July 2003, when not exceeding the systemic risk in the two months I received more than 100% profit. The most unfortunate period I was in November-December 2003, when I escaped from under the "oppression" of telephone trading on the Internet-trading, done a bunch of rather silly mistakes and allowed Drawdown more than 70%. However, it is difficult to say that the result is successful and what was not successful. The point is that the situation is November-December 2003 was a logical extension of "dizziness from success" of summer 2003. But in January, after a profound drodauna, I created a system of Silver-channels, which in 2004 helped me get out of drodauna and even, at the end of the year, receive a small profit (around 20-25%) so that the success of a dangerous relaxation and loss of clarity of perception market, but failures often lead to new breakthroughs and new success if they apply correctly, of course;)

Q: What tools do you use when making trading decisions?
The thing is that I now sell for many and various tools of trade - this is not the only currency it shares, and CFD on stocks with leverage 1:10, and futures on stock indexes and futures on gold, oil. Now preparing a system for trading in currency options. Naturally, every tool of trade requires a slightly different approach. If you talk about currencies, here I use the system Silver-channels, based on analysis of a candle with Ishimoku and my additions to it. Basic taymfreymy for trade - the week-days, months and additional 4-hours. Before the most important news of trying to reduce the risks to a minimum, even if there is confidence in the future market movement. Confidence - bad counselor for trade;)

Question: What are your personal qualities, in your opinion, makes you a good trader?
Most importantly - this is a systematic approach to everything and everyone. In the past I was a system programmer, but the arrival of the system software was not accidental, but was the result of a systematic approach to implementing the goal. Then I grew up in the two years of the 5 level electromechanical services for ATSPU computers with non-EU entity which deign to take in the CC, first to st.inzhenera, electronics, servicing and repair any computer that is in the VC. And then, after writing me makroassemblere, interactive program for data processing, which in the design department, and even did not dare to dream, I was offered the position of the system programmer developing carrier. Ie has set a goal (to become a system programmer), introduced a certain system to achieve this goal, and then implemented the system. Then himself was struck by how easily and quickly reached this result, but such an approach have not worked in the life and times of two, showing its effectiveness. The same approach I used when set a goal to become a professional trader. Ie a man who earns his living exclusively from trading in financial markets. I can not say that this goal has been reached today, but so far everything is moving well on the plan;)

Question: Do you feel that your trade is becoming better and why?
1. As a result of this trade.
2. According to labor on this trade.

Ie if in 2002 I almost day sat at a monitor, ie, for the purpose of trafficking. In 2003 the trade had already spent much less time, but still it was more than half of my irregular working hours. In 2004, I no longer promotes VIAC.RU, analysts and other business than the actual trade. By the end of 2004, I already traded in several accounts, spending, while no more than 10% of their time on the trade itself, and the results, according to investors are becoming better and better, but even they know better than me;)

Question: What effect trade has had on your personal life?
The point is that we have with his wife was a small, family-run trading business, which in 97-98 was even quite large, but after the crisis situation in the market all the time has changed for the worse for our business side and, despite our efforts , the case required more labor, and creating less impact. Actually, I have therefore decided to engage in trading, that the prospects for further development and expansion of the business has not been seen for some time. And this situation is highly Davila on the psyche. In September 2003, I closed it. His wife initially highly experienced - prirosla its entire body and soul, but now quite happy. I can not say that financially it is more than ever, but the situation is now stable and much clearer and, more importantly, that there is a clear development prospects.

Question: You have developed a system to identify signals in the FOREX market? You can describe what the components of the system?
That's why the system is not only signals the entrance / exit, but rather a set of different rules of behavior in certain situations. Ie this amount of open positions, the number of open positions, while the number of traded instruments, the number of traded markets at the same time, the risk of one position, the cumulative risk of the account, etc. etc. All this is a system that I sell. Actually, for each trading account generated some unique trading system, depending on what amount to account for how much this amount is given to the management, the nature of the holder of that amount, etc. etc. All these nuances are included in some one concept, which can be called a "trading system".

Question: How much you needed time to develop your trading style?
Well, since April 2002, three years and developing it further;) I can not say that this development has been completed and the next I will not grow. Moreover, once the development is stopped - then all go downhill, and shlopyvatsya business starts to deteriorate.

Question: Are you planning any modification or revision of their systems in the near future?
The system - this is not something static. It is itself a dynamic and evolving along with the environment in which the moves. To ensure that the system was able to survive it must continually comply with the environment in which it lives. The trade system is in the market, then it needs to be consistent with that environment. As the feedback from the life of the system have the results issued by the system in the trading process. I really like the concept of "dynamic equilibrium" with respect to the trading system and its interaction with the market. While the system is in a dynamic equilibrium - a trader in the water as soon as the dynamic equilibrium is violated, because the trader knows where ... It is therefore necessary to maintain a dynamic equilibrium is constantly and always.

Question: How does the system take account of news events?
Will not they violate the security of algorithms? Fundamental analysis, I am, but it gives the possibility of taking into account the overall structure of the market and, as shown, the practice is not useful for current sale even at a week's taymfreyme. For example, if the market is set against the dollar, the good news is the fundamental nature can only slightly delay the fall of the dollar, while bad news for the dollar will be seen on the cheers and the dollar to fall just a couple-three figures. Similarly, and vice versa, if the market is optimistic about the dollar, as we saw on April 1, even on the bad news the U.S. may grow up into two pieces. Therefore, news events are recorded through the filter of current market sentiment. For a system of trade week was nothing more than a "news noise";)

Question: What are the measurements you use to evaluate how the system works?
Typical results of trade statistics. If it is within the limits of tolerance - it means everything is OK.

Question: You are currently working on any software project?
This means, probably, the MTS? No, I do not sell until the development of MTS and the MTS I'm not very attracted. Now I have more to do - I train a group of traders, who are then able to trade effectively. I think it is a more interesting job than the development of MTS.

Question: What is the usual mistake of those who try to develop a trading system?
Not quite understand the question, which means "normal" error? The most common mistake of those who begin to trade any system - it OHVR (It is I'd like Enter (Exit) to / from the market). Here is the most OHVR typically breaks any system in the first couple of months and trade leads to a stable Drawdown, unless the discharge. Learning to wait for a clear and a clear signal to learn input / output when not to do so - this is also part of the system of trade.

Question: How do you view the loss, and how you define your risk before you enter into the market?
First of all, it is necessary to understand - the system is lost or not, ie all have been completed in accordance with the system or have taken place OHVR or other psychological factors. Ie when calculating the statistics, I share the transaction on the system and non-systematic. Then watch, the balance of profit / loss on the transaction system is within the limits of tolerance - all right, this system costs, if allowed to go - then it is necessary to understand what is happening, look for the causes and correct something. But with non-systematic work harder - this is the issues of psychology;) With regard to the definition of risk, the trade over the phone in 2002-3 he taught me to do this automatically, ie before opening the position, "the potential risk position, resulting overall risk on the account, as is averaged, and at the wretched market situation. How? Well, sometimes in mind (helping former geodetic practice when it comes quite sophisticated calculations in the mind of conduct) and on the device;)

Question: Do you prefer long or short-term strategy?
I prefer an effective strategy, but as practice shows, my trade, it is for me as a trader of long-term strategies are more effective. So initially, in 2002, I traded for 4 hours within the week. Then, in 2003 moved to a 4-hour, but within a month. The background graphics were 4-hour and dnevki. In 2004 I moved to the trade dnevkam at intervals of 1-3 months, but now increasingly turn to the trade weekly intervals from 2-3 months of trade. up to six months or more. There is also in the development and positional strategy, which position can live more than a year, and even a few years.

Question: What was your most unforgettable transaction?
29 April 2003, the night I came home and saw that day, rose to the maximum, setting a new maximum. Losses at that time had exceeded all possible limits me. I called the dealer and there was a man who was not aware of guidelines for me - then did the operation, bordering on insanity - closing all unprofitable position, I turned a 65% deposit against the dollar. I was lucky - the dollar is, indeed, fell heavily, and in the holidays, my violation was observed only on 12 May. By that time the account has grown more than threefold. But, according to our agreement, I have lost their share of profits and has been suspended for a month from the trade) and it was for me then the best lesson - not every success is, indeed, a success!

Question: With all the variety of technical and fundamental analysis tools, as a beginner trader avoid information overload or ?
Have clear and explicit goal of its activities and fairly detailed business plan for the formation and development of its activities. It is best, as in my opinion, is to pass our seminars http://www.viac.ru/cd/183 - at these seminars, I realized his idea of education for traders from the initial acquaintance with the financial markets to create your own trading strategy and the training of trade this strategy in real-time. The objective of these workshops is to people, their past, clearly understood what he stood for the way that he really wants to get this and how to reach him.

Q: What do you think the biggest misconception novice traders to trade the markets?
What can I become a millionaire, with $ 200 in your pocket. In fact, probably every novice in his time, believed to number of days invested $ 200-1000, it will become a millionaire, that he buys for his first million, etc. etc. ;) As soon as people understand that this business are no better and no worse than many other jobs and that it is quite comparable to the earnings remaining businesses - then already started the formation of a normal trader. However, many so-so and do not understand, while continuing to rely on a miracle.

Question: Can you describe a normal trading day of preparation before the performance of the transaction?
My "day trading" on the currency trade begins at 2:00, when the DOT closed daily candles and ends at 2:30-2:45, when viewing graphics on all currency pairs and the open / close position. Accordingly, the "trading day" for the American Foundation begins at 23:30 AM EDT and ends at 0:00. Some positions are opened at the next session, but not at the opening, but sometime after 18:00 Moscow time. But, as I said in itself trade now takes a fraction of my time, but all the other cases are also related to the market, market analysis, etc. issues, so that somewhere once helped and trade. And, most importantly - a full and active recreation! This is essential for traders! More fresh air, more traffic, because the well-being of the trader, his perception of himself, living environment is an integral part of its trading system, and this part too, should be kept in dynamic equilibrium with the environment;)

Mark Navumau
Forex Magazine

Traps for Traders

When we say that ten years working in the market, we first of all say that it is ten years of experience working with people.

The lion's share of the stock market is dedicated to technical analysis, trading systems, mathematical modeling. For those useful things such as the loss of the so-called human factor. While the psychology of investor behavior is largely determined his victories and defeats. By observing the reaction of the players in different situations divided the executive director of the investment company «TSERIH Capital Management» Vladislav Kovalchuk.

«Currency speculator»: You work on the Russian stock market almost since its inception. Sometimes you have accumulated mass of observations of human behavior that relate to the category of «players». Does their behavior, how they operate in the market, some interesting patterns?
Vladislav Kovalchuk: People who work in the stock market, it seems surprising act in different situations. Do not discovered America, when I say that all traders, from novice to veteran actor, admit mistakes, which are often associated with psychology. For example, a newcomer has made some good deals and believed to be a professional. For any other business, such as sales, this is normal. Appears self-confidence in their actions. It may be somewhat overstated, but that in itself is beginning to work on professional development - pave the way to success.

On the stock market a lot harder, a manifestation of such feelings and can become a psychological trap. For example, an investor engaged in intraday trade, get in a few days, a positive result. It begins to seem that he can outflank the market and a couple of days gets a loss. And here begins the most important thing - the player thinks he has done everything correctly, could still beat the market and begins to methodically repeat mistakes and to continue to consider them random.

«AC»: How long can this last peak?
VK: As they say, «the light at the end of the tunnel is», but not the end of the tunnel. Gradually, the player loses the amount won. Then, from the first trap, he gets straight to the second - a strong desire to win back lost, do not analyze their misses, and, accordingly, without changing the tactics work. «In fact, acting in a way, I am in the beginning of a well-earned!» - Thinks the player. As a result of loss increases, and the investor could lose starting capital.

Or, for example, when you close the position the player wants to sell a little bit better than what is currently the market offers. He starts to chase for the price, the price goes against them, reducing the position. Turning to professional slang - in an attempt to catch «pips» trader loses «figures». Consider another situation - a player aims to capture at least a minimal profit, but it is absolutely not willing to close down loss-making position. As a result, it can only exacerbate the loss.

Such examples are many. Most problems are only two motives - the desire by all means was not possible to miss profit and the fear of losing ones. And emotions and too much arrogance leads to mistakes, not only beginners but also experienced players, who then are puzzled as to once again managed to come to the same rake.

«AC»: And what behavior would be correct in this situation?
VK: Stop and think, look at the situation from the outside. Forget about losing and start from scratch. It seems that everything is done very simply. However, as all the excellent know, is difficult to rise above their emotions and objectively analyze the situation.

«AC»: So you need to consult more with other players?
VK: On the market, each busy with his / her work, people earn money, and not always even if you want help from colleagues in the workshop have an opportunity to engage in other people's difficulties. We solve this problem in another way - in our institute, there is personal managers. This means that any trader can always count, including, in consultation with his personal manager, and specialist analytical services company.

For large customers, we have such a service as individual trading advice. In this case, other than a personal manager and analyst, to provide services to the client connects personal trader. He shares his views on the situation and, on request, offers suggestions of conduct on the market.

«AC»: As far as investors are listening to these recommendations?
VK: It depends on whether the person is ready to even think about the meaning of our recommendations. When he calmed down and examined, it has already made a step in the right direction. Of course, this does not mean that he starts to win, but at least it has less chance to get in the trap, which came before him, are and will get thousands of players worldwide. In general, customers in most cases, followed by our recommendations. Thus, an individual trading advice is now very in demand. Unfortunately, our resources in this area for obvious reasons, are limited, and we offer this service only to large investors. However, if we say exactly that to help a person to objectively look at what is happening, adjust their behavior to avoid the obvious mistakes, then communicate with the manager is quite enough. In addition, we regularly hold seminars for both beginners and more experienced players by our Training Center. For beginners it is a good chance to not only learn basic elements, but also listen to the professionals who «go to the light».

«AC»: That is a personal manager in part serves as a psychologist?
VK: Well, that gives the opportunity to sell all the brokers - who is a more interesting, someone less interesting. But access to the market - this is only part of the iceberg ...

Interview prepared Kristina Kuznetsova

Once again on the currency and monetary reform

June 18, 2004 came into force a new Federal Law «On Currency Regulation and Currency Control». Its impact on the banking system reported a correspondent of «Sun» Executive Vice President of the Association of Russian banks on legal matters, AV Emelin.

«Currency speculator»: What are the main differences between the new Federal Law «On Currency Regulation and Currency Control» old?
Andrei Emelin: First of all, the substantial liberalization of cross-border payments. Since June 18, 2004, in the case of open accounts (deposits) in banks located in the territories of foreign countries that are members of OECD or FATF, for individuals - residents of the duty for a month to notify the tax authorities of the place of its accounting for the opening ( closing) of accounts (2 of Art. 12). In the case of legal entities - residents of the requested order will come into force on 18 June 2005 (2 Part 1, Art. 26). In respect of opening accounts in other cases, ie when you open a bank account located in the territory of a State not a member of OECD or FATF, or when opening an account in the currency of the Russian Federation in a foreign bank the Bank of Russia may require pre-registration account (part 3 of v. 12). Moreover, these requirements can not be installed at the opening of the deposits. It also may be subject to pre-registration entry and send to the Russian Federation, export and transfer from the Russian currency, the Russian Federation and the domestic securities by residents and nonresidents in the form of a documentary (part 5 of Art. 15). The new law fixed the total refusal of the previous permission of the commission of the exchange transactions of capital flows and direct prohibition on the establishment of the requirement for individual permits (part 3 of art. 5). Establishes only two permissible types of foreign exchange restrictions - claims to order the commission of the foreign currency operations between residents and nonresidents. This requires the use of special accounts (1) and the requirement to reserve (2). In doing so, none of these restrictions does not work automatically, but each must be specifically identified regulatory authority of currency regulation. The main requirement for the execution of most foreign exchange transactions would be to use a special account (para. 10 am 1 st. 1), ie bank account in an authorized bank or a special section of the account department, or open register in the register of holders of securities the special section of personal accounts to incorporate the rights to securities. In the course of finalizing the draft of the Act by the Association of Russian Banks avoided guidance as a requirement for foreign exchange transactions «opening a special account», which could give rise to the view of the need to open a separate special account for the commission of each currency transaction.

«AC»: The new law differs special and ordinary currency accounts?
AE: Formally, the law distinguishes between ordinary and special foreign currency accounts. From paragraph 10 of Part 1, Art. 1 shows that not all foreign currency account will receive a special status, but only one of which will be provided for the regulatory bodies of foreign currency regulations, in accordance with law. All other accounts, as used for unregulated foreign exchange transactions, and used to carry out the controlled operations in the absence of the establishment of appropriate requirements, special accounts for the law is not. However, it is important to pay attention to the rule of Art. 14 (paragraph 1 and 2 of paragraph 1 hour 3), which states that unless otherwise provided by this Act, the calculations in the implementation of foreign exchange transactions made by residents (legal entities and individuals) through bank accounts in authorized banks, the opening and reference which sets the Bank of Russia. This situation is further confirmed by the Bank of Russia the right to regulate the opening and use of not only special, but ordinary currency accounts, he realized, in accordance with Art. 4 of the Federal Law of 10 July 2002 ? 86 Federal Law «On the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (Bank of Russia)». Thus, the Bank of Russia given the opportunity to create a unified system of bank accounts, which account for one type could take place as regulated or unregulated foreign exchange transactions.

«AC»: What are the basic models of reserve, under the new Federal Law «On Currency Regulation and Currency Control»?
AE: The main three models of reserve, under the new law are:
- Up to 100% of the total amount of transactions for up to 60 calendar days (5 hours Art. 8);
- Up to 20% of the total amount of transactions for up to 1 year (part 6 Art. 8);
- Up to 50% of the total amount of transactions for up to 2 years (1-5 pm art. 7).

The first model is applied in cases of pre-redundancy, ie before the operation, and it aims to create artificial lag between the emergence of commitment and performance. At the same time before the expiry of the reservation of such operation is prohibited (paragraph 2 of Article 7 pm. 16).

The second model is used when you reserve for the purpose of reducing the attractiveness of certain types of operations by reducing their profitability.

The third model is used in the commission of foreign trade in long-term performance only after the statutory preferential period (from 180 days to 5 years), during which the restrictions for such operations do not apply. In doing so, it is clear that for the longest back-up operations is only a temporary measure because the limited 2-year period beyond the duration of the operation and, more significantly, from the performance of its obligations under the non-resident fees. Thus, the legislator refused the opportunity to promote the execution of foreign trade contracts by maintaining the reservation until the conclusion of the parties settlement of the transaction.

«AC»: What you see improvement in the foreign exchange regime, as compared with the old law, but that seems questionable to you?
AE: With regard to improvements, point to a doubling of the amount of operations (from $ 75000 to $ 150000), committed without restriction between individuals - residents and nonresidents in foreign securities during the calendar year (Article 9 pm. 8). The most controversial provision of the law is presumed to the introduction of 18 Jun, 2005 opening of the right to free legal entities - residents of accounts with foreign banks and the disposition of funds credited to them (3 hours and 6 tablespoons. 12, Clause 2 of Part 1, Art. 26 ).

Let me say that before this time, such accounts are opened and used in the current order by paragraph 1, paragraph 2, Article. 5 and Art. 6 'Act of October 9, 1992 Unfortunately, the new law is based on the concept of selective liberalization of foreign economic relations, in particular, the removal of restrictions on cross-border provision of banking services, without adequate liberalize the domestic financial market. Obviously, this can further reduce the resource base of the domestic economy, reduce the credit capacity of banks, retard the development of small and medium-sized businesses, and worsen the investment climate in the country. According to the banking community, «one-sided» liberalization of currency legislation, while maintaining the set of administrative barriers to economic entities within the country would further strengthen the dollarization of the Russian economy, and complicate the transition to full convertibility of the ruble.

«AC»: There Is something new in the import and export from Russia of currency values, the Russian currency and domestic securities?
AE: On the whole, maintained in effect prior removal order of foreign currency by individuals: free (up to $ 3000) and declarative (from $ 3000 to $ 10000). It is not required to provide to the customs authority of documents confirming the previous import, forwarding, transfer or purchase of currency (paragraph 3, v. 1 5). Amounts over $ 10 thousand at a time can be exported only if they have previously imported, sent or transferred to Russia and subject to the requirements of the customs legislation within the limits specified in the customs declaration or other document confirming their import, transmission or translation of the Russian Federation (Part 2 Art. 15). Radically reduced order transfer foreign currency abroad. Since June 18, 2004 physical persons - residents gained the right to transfer funds to their accounts (deposits) that are open to foreign banks, in the order determined by the Bank of Russia. CBR can provide only a requirement to reserve the resident up to 100% of the transaction. This term is defined up to 60 calendar days before the implementation of monetary transactions (part 4 art. 12). At the same time, funds in foreign accounts can be used by residents without restrictions, except for foreign currency operations between residents (for legal entities) and foreign currency transactions related to transfer of property and services in the territory of the Russian Federation - for natural persons (Article 6 pm. 12). The same law (with specified restrictions) will be legal entities - residents of 18 June 2005 (Clause 2 Part 1, Art. 26).

«AC»: What the law says about the return and sale of foreign exchange earnings?
AE: The new law retained the existing requirement for mandatory repatriation of foreign exchange earnings (Article 19) and the subsequent partial binding sales (Art. 21). Additionally, the requirement imposed on the compulsory repatriation of ruble proceeds (art. 19). These measures are designed to ensure the stability of the national currency by providing foreign currency to domestic foreign exchange market. The object of compulsory sales increased significantly. If the old law it was only on the export of foreign exchange earnings, it is now selling foreign exchange earnings to be residents (legal entities and natural persons - individual entrepreneurs), which includes foreign exchange earnings due to the specified non-residents from residents of prisoners or on behalf of the transactions providing for the transfer of goods, works, services, information and results of intellectual activities, including exclusive rights to them, in favor of non-resident (part 3 of art. 21), regardless of the availability of exports. Ratio of compulsory sale of secured directly to the law and is 30%. In doing so, the Bank of Russia given the right to reduce the specified standard (Part 1, Art. 21). Under the law, the mandatory sale of foreign currency proceeds in a manner determined by the Bank of Russia, through authorized banks. In the case of Bank of Russia a special order of compulsory sale of foreign exchange earnings may be carried out directly by the authorized banks and (or) in the currency markets through authorized banks (Part 6 of Art. 21).

«AC»: As now will be foreign exchange controls?
AE: The Act strictly regulates the powers and agents of foreign exchange controls: secured an exhaustive list of documents that may be requested from the subjects of foreign currency transactions (part 4 art. 23) and the provision of which shall be given not less than 7 working days (p . 3 Part 1, Art. 23). In addition, if the agents of foreign exchange controls provided that they are entitled to require the submission of only those documents that directly relate to the ongoing monetary transactions (paragraph 1 of Article 5 pm. 23), in respect of exchange control is no restriction, but a more abstract rule of the possibility to request and receive documents and information that relate to foreign exchange, opening and maintaining accounts (paragraph 1 of Article 3. 23). The most important right granted by the authorized banks as agents of foreign exchange controls, should recognize the right of refusal in the implementation of monetary transactions and opening accounts in the event of non-entity transaction documents previously requested by the agent, or in case of submission of false documents (paragraph 4 of Article 5 pm. 23 ).

«AC»: And what is responsible for violations of currency legislation?
AE: In contrast to the previous law, the new no specific currency offenses (Art. 25). Thus, responsibility for foreign exchange law in most cases will be based on the formulations set forth in Art. 16.17 Administrative Code 15.25 and the Russian Federation. It should be noted that the new law created a strong liberal-economic foundations for a radical restructuring of currency regulation and currency control in the Russian Federation. What we hope now is that world energy prices and potential reform of public authorities will allow to realize such a progressive and ambitious plan.

Interview prepared
Max Colors

California guru

In late 2001, the magazine «Sun» has published an interview with Joe DiNapoli - one of the most popular American traders [1]. In March 2002, DiNapoli, as well as two other well-known financial guru - Borselino Lewis and Larry Williams, came to Moscow where he participated in the exhibition-conference «Internet Trading. Ekspo2002 »[2]. Many of our readers have been very happy to personally speak with «living legends» financial world, but expressed regret that not all able to talk with them. Journal «Sun» begins a series of regular publications on the world-renowned trader. The first issue to our readers are invited to an interview with John Bollindzherom.

«Currency speculator»:
Hello, Mr. Bollindzher. Our first question: readers interested in Russia, as you become the trader?

John Bollindzher: The question journalists ask me most often. In the late 1970's I worked at the studios and was involved in the film as a cameraman. I was one of the earliest models of PC. At that time, I wondered how it can be used to adjust the picture quality. Gradually, I became increasingly enamored with computers and less and less work in the film. By 1980, I went with the head of the computer analysis.

«AC»: How do you use a balanced strip Bollindzhera? What is meant by «breakwater Market»? In what segments of the financial market, this method is applicable, and in what circumstances the use of balanced lines must be careful?

DB: Balance strip - this is sort of middle line, which, in turn, is detected by the trend. This line is not selected to ensure the best signal intersection, and turn to describe the intermediate trend. However, it should be remembered that this line should be used as a «anchor» - a reference line for all the other bands. Therefore, if the selected line, which gives the best signal intersection, it would be too short to provide a suitable anchor for the band.

Realizing that this line is a narrative in the trend, it is important to know how to better use. Initially, I used the lane and the middle line to describe the movement of stock prices in the U.S. market. I know that many traders use it, not only for market shares in other countries, but no less active - in FOREX and commodity markets. With regard to care, which should be applied to the strip of different segments of the market, then perhaps it would be inapplicable to illiquid markets and markets with low activity.

«AC»: It is well known that the algorithm Bollindzhera strip is such that 95% of the price fluctuations within the band. Is this as an opportunity to trade against the market? And what happens if the price would be outside the band?

DB: The answer is - no, and here is why: we use the strip to determine the price is relatively high or relatively low? If the price is at the upper edge of the band, one can say that it is relatively high, and if at the bottom of the band - that is, by definition, we say that the price is low. Thus, the behavior of prices compared with other indicators, and it can also affect the trend-dependent solutions. There may be situations where the price is at the upper edge of the band in a strong enough market and its movement is very strong, and therefore there is no reason to sell. In a similar situation where the price is within the upper edge of the band, but the market is weak internally, you have to keep its price within the limits of the band, it should be sold. In other words, your actions will depend on the dynamic behavior of prices within the band and must be confirmed by other indicators. I prefer the indicators of volume. It seems to me that they are very well suited for this purpose. However, I have seen, as in this situation, well a variety of indicators.

«AC»: Can I use line strips Bollindzhera as effective levels of resistance and support?

DB: Of course, this can be done. For example, the upper edge of the band will be resisted when the weak market and the lower edge of the band will be the level of support for the strong market conditions. But you must understand that the price can remain above the upper border of the band a long time, if the market strong, or a long time to be below the lower limit of the band, if the market weak. In such a situation in a sustainable ascending or descending trend wise, respectively, to sell or buy. You must show itself, when it is obvious that the situation in the weak upper band, and in doing so you are ready to act. I would like to make a small gift from America Russia. Through research for my new book, I found a curious thing that you will be very interesting. By monitoring market dynamics, I found that if the two on the twentieth and the fiftieth day match, then in such circumstances, the trend is very strong. With a strong trend you will see that the form of strips prior to the twentieth and the fiftieth day varies almost identically. This is - a reliable way to monitor the trend.

«AC»: Thank you for the gift. It is certainly of interest of our traders. Tell me please, but you can use strips Bollindzhera to check the false puncture resistance and support levels?

DB: Sure. We can recommend a way, very similar to that discussed earlier. Falsity of the puncture can be defined on the real macro-economic processes. For example, a popular method in the U.S. is to compare the average in some industries with the dynamics of indices of industrial development. If we compare the price point was higher than the upper bound of the band, with a corresponding time-economic indicator, and it is on the decline (ie, we can see that these two points are on divergent lines), it's likely there will be false samples. But if the price point above the upper band and a point on the lines of industrial development are in the ascending trend, most likely, be expected to significantly enhance the market.

«AC»: Are there any features you would with your indicator on the market FOREX?

DB: Of course, the results of my work is widely applicable in the market FOREX, but there are some differences from trading shares. For example, when the movement starts, it goes further and lasts longer than one would expect for the stock market. When working on the trends that I have given special preference should be to pay attention to the breakthrough, when the band goes down very low, and the price goes beyond its limits. We call it squeezing the prices (squeeze). It is, in particular by FOREX, often leads to big changes. In fact, not so important, what options do you use: time period, deviation factor, etc. Much more important for the trader when the narrow band starts to grow and become very broad, or the reverse process occurs. When the expansion is just beginning, this heralds a start of big changes in the market. And when the band is widened, and the process of winding down in the opposite direction, it means the end of the change.

«AC»: The next question concerns the Elliott wave theory. To what extent it describes the processes in the financial markets? Do you have this theory, and in what context?

DB: I think that Elliott wave theory in fact reflects the basic trends of processes and mechanisms in financial markets. The problem is that most of the practitioners saw it «globalism». They believe that this theory has always and everywhere true. However, I do not think that it is the key to all problems. Nevertheless, the wave theory can be very useful for operations on financial markets. I'm not sure how many others, that the theory of Elliott always works without failure. I do not even think that it is applicable in most cases. But when it works, it works quite well. In this sense, the theory resembles vzvinchivanie price: it occurs when the benefit is a series of circumstances for this growth. But it is not too often. I think that people are not too get to the heart of this theory. They are trying to apply it in all cases. However, it is acceptable only in certain situations - for example, in the early stages of development processes in the markets. So this theory, the most winning position.

«AC»: Please tell us about your future plans. Are you going to publish new books?

DB: Yes, I plan to publish two new books. One of them will be the second part to the already published a monograph «Bollindzher and strip Bollindzhera» - I have accumulated a lot of new material that I would like to add. So I'm going to combine the new material and a guide to its study. I want to describe the general rules for the functioning of financial markets. And plan to come to Moscow - I'm waiting eagerly. This will be my first visit to Russia.

«AC»: What do you expect from this trip?

DB: I just want to know a little more about modern Russia, that is happening here. When I send to travel, I always try to learn something new. I really want to see how people benefit my book. I also hope that I have interesting new ideas in the area in which I work. I would like to learn about other ways in which I might not be familiar, but which have been successfully applied to your market. Do not often see an other working conditions of the markets, or totally different perspective on the analysis.

«AC»: Tell us about your hobbies.

DB: I love surfing and music. I have a substantial collection of music, although I do not play musical instruments. I like to cook.

«AC»: What do you want to wish the readers of our journal, and all Russian traders?

DB: I would like to say this. The concept of market is different from that under which it is traditionally understood. It covers all major territories. The entire world - it is a huge financial market, and I think that traders have a great prospect for the next few years in this world. I am not saying that they would be easy, however, on all grounds, working conditions in the next few years should be good.

Success in the market life

Russian roulette and vorotily business, classical history, and financial speculation, poetry and mathematics, science and Sherlock Holmes battles - everything is on the study of friendship and enmity with Mrs. success. If your neighbor is making success on the stock exchange - he was a genius or vezunchik? «Sun» publishes interviews the author of the book «nicely left happenstance. The hidden role of chance in the markets and in life »Nassima Taleb, which he gave to the English News Agency Air Force.

When we make a mistake luck for skill, we are becoming the «accidental nicely left» - cautions mathematician and insurance risk manager Nassim Taleb. We need a book that reveals the roots are already accustomed to underestimate the accident. And in general, it is mathematically slim, attractive and informative book on common sense. It provides a wide range of readers. Students and financial officers, taxi drivers and lawyers, dentists, and philosophers - all can read this book, and through it to gain a new perspective on life.

- Mr. Nassim, you have such a rich knowledge of world markets, the resulting work in different places. It seemed to me that, according to set out in your vision, ultimately, each only benefit from good luck. Is it true that experience is not so critical?

- I have not gone so far as to say that everything is defined by success. Above all, we underestimate its role. We tend to attribute our errors at the expense of underestimating the good luck and give a much more important skill.

- Is it possible to quantify the extent to which performance is based on luck, but as far as ability, experience?

- Count it's quite hard, but I tried, and a huge number of people tried, and most of my friends also tried to evaluate it. I believe that such a calculation, and introspection, which he leads - just an attempt to determine how much depends on the case. Self-help to assess the share of luck, and this is very simple. There is the way of evaluation, and I want to outline that will help you to feel that he intuitiven. Suppose I have a million monkeys typing printers. Printing is. At the end of the experiment, which may last a long time, especially if you are not too skilled typist, you probably can find one that would have printed the Iliad. But if you have 10 billion monkeys, it is very likely that some of them will print the Iliad. However, if you have one monkey, the opportunity to print the Iliad would be very small. So if a monkey print Iliad, as you see in the original population, it can fairly accurately calculate her chances to have accidentally created this great text. The same applies to the reception of traders. If I will be 10 thousand traders as a reference group, after 5 years, surely one of them will reach a record of success. Would I not pay attention to the description of such a trader and not attributed it to high art. But if I had 5 of traders in the market, and after 5 years, one of them came to the same record the results, I would say: yes, it is likely that the role of luck in the actions of this gentleman is very small.

- People are more concerned about the fact that the games in the stock market usually cost them money. Entire areas can flourish and die, depending on events in world markets, and if a strong element of luck involved, it is likely that we would be less peaceful than it is now.

- There is a worry as well as a case not only in trading. Adventitious presence in making economic decisions and actions of similar type. For example, you read government statistics, most of which are based on any real facts. But often you are faced with playing a role of randomness, and the importance of statistics in this case is reduced. Nevertheless, a very large number of decisions based on these statistics. We, the citizens of Britain, more and more encouraged to invest in bonds that have a small portfolio of shares. Against this background, we can just be successful, similar to those who might be doing this every day for earnings and for a long time? I always thought the idea of investing in bonds is extremely suspicious. Especially suspicious arguments that accompany the proposals of the investment. I call this situation "survival bias." This is very similar to the past with the monkeys.

Let's say you are in the 1900-meters at the turn of the century, and you have ample opportunities for investment. Suppose you would have invested in securities in Argentina, the UK, the USA, Russia, France and other countries. Over time, you would have seen - since, in fact, survived only Anglo-Saxon markets. And Argentina, Russia, etc. since the early 20 th century has a lot of conflicts. Therefore, monitoring the results of the securities markets, we can say, to adjust the results of historical events. This is a story written by the victors. Investing in bonds - not a good idea.

- But you also say that the whole system, all the way, which is global capitalism, flawed?

- Not quite so. I believe that the securities market, especially since 1982, has become an opiate for the middle class. And people derive an income that is called a miracle and magic, which could create a market. They fool themselves, and at some point, thought they may have changed their views. But most likely it will be too late.

- Money drop by?

- Yes, the money drop.

- So you are saying that luck definitely plays an important role. But there is also such a thing as training projections. At least you have some of these skills?

- Definitely. The problem with the way to the press and most of the banks of the trader rather vague, as you can see, that did the trader, or do you see for the short term and exclude the results of luck. You come to the conclusion that the results were positive because they make the right moves. We seek to set aside an alternative outcome that could happen, and seeing only what has occurred. And this is a very bad way, so how can we get in trouble. In other words, if you have a random outcome is possible, You can have more than one outcome. Therefore, do not estimate selection decisions on its results, and consider taking action on their quality. What has happened over the past 15 years, bovine market, distracted us from the quality and led only to observe the results. We will be punished.

- With regard to punishment, it is interesting, as expressed in your book and your theory of those with whom you have worked in the market? Is the book part of their exposure? Generally, they want to stay in the shade?

- On the contrary. Most of them are forced to admit that very few people are successful in the sale of shares. An extremely large majority of people are failed. Traders like my book, as they hear the clink of coins. They told me: "Well, even if I am not George Soros and Warren Buffett are not, if I am not billionaire, what would I like to see my relatives and friends, this is not because I am so not competent, but mostly because of the that I neudachliv. That is why my book has attracted traders.

- But the converse assertion is that people like George Soros and Warren Buffett have been fortunate and perhaps permanently successful, and if you go back to your secondary display on the law of numbers, it becomes particularly clear. But, referring to people like Soros, we constantly ask: what, in their opinion, should happen to the world markets? We almost worshiping these people, because they think they know something that does not know the rest. But it appears, due to the fact that you say, we simply mislead.

- Yes, but my idea and the book is not that these people do not know what they are talking about. My view is that they know a little bit less than we expect.

- That is, they benefit from what might they not?

- In most cases, that they do, there is a fortune. These guys are not dentists. Dentist, I can assess, look what he did. I even can stand behind the doors of his office and ask people to open mouths to see their teeth. Since traders are not held because you are dealing with random factors. It is therefore easier to buy and sell than fire egg. So, if people only buy or sell, you can not really evaluate them as accurately as the actions of a dentist or even a violinist.

- What is interesting is that for many years, we hear about people who took their own lives, as they felt the hindmost in the market. And if we look at it from your point of view, it will come to the conclusion that people should not be about anything from their failure to take at its own expense, personally.

- Certainly. My last chapter that does not allow self to be deceived by things that are beyond your control. " You can control a lot, but that you control, you can control in principle. You should not allow their self-esteem to be broken by outside events, outside of your control.

- It is much easier said than done. Humans often consider themselves typical loser in a case that took a bad turn, even if they are not always are subject to verification.

- You're right. This dilemma was one of the heroes of the book, called "Nero", who had a rich neighbor. He knew that his neighbor, an idiot, but, nevertheless, deeply in his heart he felt holding an inferior position. And that is why experienced some satisfaction, some joy, when the neighbor lost his job and failed during the crisis of 1998. That is true. We have animals that are involved in the game of social hierarchy and clamped external circumstances. The way in which I defend themselves - the only way that I know, and it is in disregard of the news. Completely ignore the people, the results are better than mine, not uvivayas around them. Therefore, the rules of social hierarchy is not evident. You're right, it is irrational.

- Okay. But it turns out, if you look from, the news very often, as well as world events have had a strong impact on financial markets. Therefore, as you can be a trader and not to feel the pulse?

- I'm a little bit different style of work. I sell only on a narrow segment of the market and on the basis of ideas, which I am sure, totally no accident. And this is usually an advantage to people who are looking for a model where it seems to me that it might not be. So my slightly different type of trade. And so I can ignore the external events.

- So in a world where there is no certainty you feel confident?

- On the contrary, I am doing the opposite. Someone thinks that he has a certain position, but I would say that he do not. I therefore conclude that this is like a lottery. I consider only those cases where it is not right, because he did not take into account a possible error.

- Consequently, in view of what was said, you lucky man?

- I think - the average. There is a test. If you also have to live your life a thousand times, how many outcomes are radically different from the one that actually occurred? That's the conundrum. Some people were of luck and the rest of the time their success was lower. I think my life is somewhere in between. Simply because as a trader I am extremely conservative. And I really worked on a lot of introspection. And I do a lot more introspection during the trade. In my company, our meetings, we say: "Let's look at today." If you're introspective, you can protect themselves from accidents and provide a positive band. It is also likely that you will be able to reduce the effect of negative strips.

- When it comes to markets and finance, we have a lot of earnest talk about confidentiality, and assess - a very difficult task. Is there is a danger that your book has a few breaks confidentiality? Because what it is, debunk some myths. - This may dispel the secrets gurus who talk about things that do not have statistical significance, that it is easy to show, simply on the basis of these statistics - a very standard technique. But I think that my book raises self-esteem of most people who are, to some extent because it would be justified. Because they said the same thing, but nobody has drawn their attention to the words when people are passionate about bubble dot.com, high rises the market, all these things, "good", the general view (well, of course, in quotes). I think my book will give confidence to people that have been configured with skepticism and this would benefit their self-esteem.

- So, your book is "nicely left an accident" will bring hope to the hindmost?

- Certainly.

- Let's hope so.

Mr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, I am extremely grateful to you for the interview.

- Thank you. A thousand thanks for having invited me.

Material prepared by Ivan Zakaryan

Interview with trader: Elliot Gu

Gu Elliott is the editor of monthly newsletter "The winners of Wall Street," which helps investors manage their risk portfolios. He worked and lived in Europe for five years, where he received a degree in finance from the University of London. Elliott analyzes the market sector for the sector to find a deal with the greatest capacity and to remain aloof from the most dangerous areas. He uses different approaches to find a stock or currency market for strong medium-term trends in order to select only the best deal. In his interview, he shares his experience about how to prepare for trade and how it determines the best trade opportunities.

Question: How did you initially interested in investment and trade in the markets?
Elliot: As far as I remember, I was fascinated by financial markets and trade. My father traded in futures, so I ran to schedule and technical analysis at an early age. He also introduced me to several works on the technical analysis and trade, including technical analysis, stock trends, "Robert Edwards and John Megi. Later, at the University of London, I studied finance and economics from several professors who have worked in London. Their training in business really strengthened my interest in the financial sector.

Question: Did you ever use options and if so, what are your favorite strategies?
Elliot: I'm using the options and recommend them to their subscribers. One of my favorite strategies is to sell protection. The well-known speculator Jesse Livermore once said that the most difficult thing that any trader needs to learn - is "to be right and to adhere to their positions." In other words, define the main trend and stay with the trend you need to maximize their profits. Unfortunately, most traders, even with considerable experience of transactions go too early, leaving the market returns. One strategy options that can help is to buy protective options for some of your winning positions when the market is in extreme conditions. This strategy may reduce the temptation to take profits too early. And if the market spread, options can help preserve your profit. I also recommend that naked option positions from time to time. If you keep the size of their positions within reasonable limits, the net trade options may be a good strategy to increase your profits.

Question: What are you most like to trade?
Elliot: Trade is always fascinating and evolving business. To understand why the market operates this way and why some market-based instruments to move in such a manner, you need to stay on top of the latest news and developments in all areas of the economy. In what other business you can spend their morning by reading about the Japanese real estate market, and his day by reading an article about the latest router "Cisco"? Besides, you can never become an absolute master in the trade. There is always room for improvement, so this is a continuous process of study.

Question: How do you view the loss and how you wish your tolerance for risk before you enter the market?
Elliot: I am firmly convinced that risk management is one of the most important yet undervalued aspects of trade. Managing risk means managing limits losses for open transactions by placing stop orders as soon as the open position and movement of the stop order as the market moves in your favor. I do use charts to determine key support and resistance levels for market-based instruments, which I traded. I then set their stop-order and at some distance below or above these critical levels. The next question that you should ask yourself - the amount of risk that you can take to give the transaction a place for development. In other words, how much you lose if the deal will be closed to stop a warrant at a predetermined level. Then, define the size of their positions to ensure that the risk you take, the amount of your trading capital.

Question: Do you prefer long or short-term strategy?
Elliot: It is difficult to give an exact definition of "long term" and "short" and that is probably different for different people. As the John Maynard Keynes, "In the long run we are all dead." I think the combination of long-term investment and short-term transactions is the most sensible approach. I have no intra-day trader: in my newsletter, I try to focus on transactions that will be open from several days to several months. My analysis is primarily based on technical charts.

Q: What are some of the key rules that you think are most important to traders and analysts in the evaluation of any trading opportunities?
Elliott: First of all, make sure that you are trading with the prevailing trend. I like to use technical tools like moving averages, to make sure that I buy when the market develops trend upwards and sell when the market develops the descending trend. Attempting to trade from the tops and bases has never been a strategy that worked for me. Secondly, can not ignore the importance of risk management. Prior to the opening position, it is important to know exactly what risks you must take. Make sure that the transaction involves sufficient capacity to compensate for the risk to you.

Question: In what markets do you like to trade and track with your analysis tools?
Elliot: I primarily focus on the stock markets and trade individual stocks. I like to start by monitoring the major indexes - Dow Industrials, Nasdaq 100 and S & P 500 index and a few sectors, like the Philadelphia Banking Index, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, the AMEX Biotechnology Index and The Dow Transportation Index. Technical look at each of them gives me the idea about the overall health of the market.

Question: What is your most unforgettable transaction?
Elliot: It may seem strange, this is a transaction that did not work for me, as should have been. In spring 2003, I recommended shares of "America West Airlines" in my trading service, as they broke from a long consolidation. At this time, the shares traded around $ 2.91. I liked the fact that almost all analysts are negative are set for this group, however, a large amount at the rally suggested accumulation. An entire sector looked ready to go up. And he made the motion up to approximately one month later, we recommend closing the position with a profit of approximately 24 per cent. But the big mistake was that the action never really moved against our recommendations, and we came out of the deal at the normal setback. Soon she went back up. Ultimately, I watched from outside the game, as the price went above $ 15. Fixed gain is normal, but the deal could make the whole year - we were not aggressive enough and when we were really right on trend, we were not able to firmly hold their positions. I think that most traders face this lesson, one way or another.

Question: With all the diversity of the various technical and fundamental tools such as a new trader can avoid information overload or "analysis paralysis"?
Elliot: Select methodology and work with it. You can always justify their position or the market view, finding the indicator, which converges with your thoughts. With literally hundreds of indicators available to traders, there is always something that will justify your opinion. I prefer to follow a few simple techniques and methods that worked in the past. This includes Moving averages, trend lines, graphical models and the relative strength index. I also think that the amount is underestimated, factor in the sale of shares.

Question: How would you describe your approach to the markets?
Elliot: I primarily oriented to the technical side of trading. I believe that technical factors dominate all others in the short and medium term. For long-term investment, should be a full understanding of the fundamental factors. However, I do not appeal to completely ignore the fundamental factors for traders and technical factors for investors. An analysis of weekly and monthly charts for your long-term portfolios makes sense, but for short-term transactions, understanding the fundamental factors will help you understand the catalysts behind the market movements.

Q: What do you think the major misconception among novice traders on the markets?
Elliot: Many novice traders think that the best way to make money is to have a high percentage of winning deals, in other words to be right all the time. This does not necessarily. It is necessary to identify market-based instruments, which, in your opinion, move a certain way and establish a strict limitation of what you are willing to risk - in other words, try to cut their losses as soon as possible. When you are in a win, try to maximize their profits. I recommend rolling a stop-order, so as to capture the increasing returns on the transaction. Or as I mentioned earlier, you can use options to protect their profits. This way, you can let the market decide when you close the position. Losing by a reduction and maximization of the winning entries of your profitable deals should be much greater than the loss-making. In this case you do not need a huge percentage of the winning transaction in order to remain in profit. In fact, many of the most profitable traders argue that had the winning percentage of deals a little more than 50 per cent. You can not be right all the time, so just try to use the good opportunities and reasonable risk management.

Q: What advice would you give a newbie trader?
Elliot: Well a long-term view on the market, but do not let that limit your presentation. In other words, it's a good idea - to try and trade on both sides of the market does not become too loyal a party at any time. That is, if you're on the side of a bear, do not let it close down your opinion in relation to the long side, and if you are on the side of bull, do not ignore the sale. Too many traders try to use every turn to sell only to one side and ignore the good opportunities for trade to another.

Question: Can you describe your average shopping day of preparation before the performance of the transaction?
Elliot: For a commercial service, I do a lot of preliminary work after the closing of tenders. I make about 3 or 4 technical display for each market every night, looking for shocks with a large volume, market-based instruments, burst above or below the major moving averages and stripes Bollindzhera. On average I watch about 200 to 500 market-based instruments in the evening, burst from the ground looking at a good level of support or correction within a rising trend. I note some interesting graphics and place them in a list that I watch every day. Normally, I do some basic fundamental analysis for the observed instruments. When I see something interesting, I would recommend this to my shopping service. As you can imagine only a few market-based instruments that pass through the full process and become the actual transactions. I also regularly review the major market sectors and indices to see whether there are any topics that are being developed. For example, if the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index is set for the rally, I watch the group in search of the best candidates for trade. Much of this analysis occurs when the market closed, because I prefer to concentrate on the analysis at this time. I am inclined to hold my day by reading the analytical reports and news messages, doing further research on markets and trends that I see.

Question: What is the decision-making process do you go to choose certain transactions and certain sectors of the economy?
Elliot: With regard to long-term investment, I am more oriented to macroeconomic factors. I like to determine the long-term investment trends and try to determine what actions and the group will bring a profit. For example, we covered the commodity markets for some time - this includes the oil and metals as well as food products, like soybeans and wheat. The fact is that Asia is growing and becoming a more important part of the world economy and hence require more oil, food and basic goods. I believe that this leads to long-term market bychemu group. I'm using my macro presentation to maintain my long-term investment advice.

Question: What kind of analysis methodology do you use to find great investment opportunities?
Elliot: I have always thought that both fundamental and technical approaches can help in locating investment ideas. But in the trade, as I said, I am inclined to pay more attention to the diagrams, rather than with long-term investment. I like to watch the market sector for the sector and then "dig" further, to find some good opportunities in the preferred sectors. For example, last year we have identified oil as a tool that can outperform the rest of the market. Oil stocks were cheap, on the basis of any fundamental analysis and technically, the oil was to establish a rising trend. We then determined the company "ConocoPhillips" as a good way to participate in the trend. In particular, we liked the way the company restructured and repay debts.

Forex Magazine
based on www.optionetics.com

Interview with Andrei Litvinov

Corresponding talks ForexTimes Victor

Q: Andrei Vladimirovich, Please tell us about the new project of "Kalita-Finans": CFD on Russian stocks and indices.

AV: Contract for Difference (CFD - contract for difference (English)) - a new synthetic financial instruments that are based on shares of domestic companies (RAO UES, Lukoil, Rostelecom and others), as well as the RTS Index, MICEX, which may deal with the use of leverage. At its core, CFD on Russian stocks and indices - it is off futures tools, quotes, to mirror the movement of all Russian shares on major stock exchanges (MICEX and RTS), and active traders do not feel any inconvenience during the transition from operations in the stock market operations with the Russian CFD .

Q: And as far as legal and legitimate are these tools?

AV: Let's say that financial market development in this area ahead of legislation. No flash market in Russia has submitted to the law on commodity exchanges and exchange trade, several heads of the Civil and Tax Codes, as well as the draft law "On the derivatives (on the order of the commission term deals), which our Russian MPs can not take now for several years. Most recently, Federal Financial Markets Service (former FCSM), was to issue organizations working on the matter of the market, a license for operations with futures and options. The "Kalita-Finans" became one of the first to receive this license, and also held a certified dealer, working with clients.
Returning to your question about the legality of OTC derivatives on Russian equities, it should be noted that for several years, derivative financial instruments to shares of Gazprom proposes to United Financial Group, together with Deutsche Bank (Deutsche Bank). This scheme has been designed for foreign investors and has been checked for legal clarity in the Prosecutor General at the request of the deputy Yuri Saveliev. We went slightly further, and derivatives offered to our clients not only to shares of Gazprom, but also on other "blue chips", as well as indexes MICEX and RTS. Moreover, the services of this product can benefit not only elite foreign funds, but all wish to improve their terms of trade, both in Russia and abroad.

Q: And do not duplicate any new products are those that already exist in the domestic stock market? In other words, why require CFD on Russian shares, if the traders can contact the brokerage company and sell only the shares on the stock exchange (MICEX, RTS)?

AV: For several reasons. Watching the development of the Russian stock market, we drew attention to the fact that deytreding in Russian shares through a domestic broker has several shortcomings, which do not allow active players to fully earn. Here's you a specific example: You sell the shares of Norilsk Nickel and techniques of technical analysis found that they must soon fall in price. You urgently call your broker and ask to make a "short selling" shares "Norilsk nickel" in the hope to earn in the fall. What you broker says: "Sorry, these shares have not given speculators for short selling." Do you know why? Yes, just your broker keeps a large package of shares and either plays himself on them "in the short or they have tacitly agreed with the company not to allow speculators" to reduce the capitalization of the company. " Or one more example. In late September, early October 2004 the market shares of Mosenergo experienced explosive growth in prices. Stocks Mosenerngo "a few days went up by nearly 170% to 3.5 rubles. to 9.5. Could a simple exchange for a player this week to earn 170% using the standard brokerage services? Can. Theoretically. A little might. When asked the broker, "Why not open a long position on shares Mosenergo could hear and talk about the weak" Free Float "and a lack of equity in the market, etc. It was impossible to hear only the truth. But the truth is that any brokerage company there quietly gradation customers - those who understand and those who are worse. If you have less money to the brokerage account, than that of any Western investment houses - the client of your broker - and then your application will perform worse and shares at the right time for you will not. All these problems can be avoided by starting to sell our new tools.
Just note that all CFD on Russian stocks and indices in the company Kalita-Finance - are (in contrast to Russia's domestic shares from brokers) margin instruments, ie with them always, regardless of the situation on the Russian stock market, you can perform a transaction as a purchase or for sale (open short position).

Q: Does the commission will increase the cost of traders in connection with the new improved terms of trade?

A.: Quite the contrary. We hope that will be able to significantly improve conditions for customers working in the Russian stock market. It's no secret that for active traders in the amount of brokerage commissions, as well as numerous other charges is a significant problem and the problem of eating up the hard-earned profits. Russian brokers "proud" low commissions, and argue that "the following have no place." For example, one broker takes a commission only 400 rubles, with turnover not exceeding EUR 400,000. per month, while another suggested that 0.01% of daily turnover. It seems to be true - where much lower? But while expressing an unprecedented low prices, stock brokers shift part of the commission for hidden charges - such as: the trading platform, the key to the electronic signature platform for depository services, the exchange commission and VAT. Want to urgently transfer money from your trading account? Pay. Want ????????? shares of Gazprom? Since you have to take more commission.
Our committee - an unprecedented low. In addition, we do not take money for any platform, nor for the urgent withdrawal of funds. And over the nature of the tool allows our customers to save on the cost of depository, stock exchange fees, etc. Thus, summing up, we can say that the CFD on Russian stocks and indices are ideal for active intraday transactions with large amounts because of low fixed commission and the lack of additional costs.

Q: Does your company give credit to clients in transactions with financial instruments?

AV: Yes, of course. And again in contrast to Russia's brokers, whose loan amount limited to 1 to 2, ie one ruble own means a trader can get 2 ruble loans, the company Kalita-Finance, has gone toward its customers and the terms offered to margin lending 1 to 5. Thus, customers significantly increase its financial leverage, which they can operate in the market.

Q: What other services the company offers its customers "Kalita-Finance?

AV: In addition to trade contracts for difference (CFD) in the United States and to Russia's actions, we offer our clients the opportunity to trade on the FOREX for ruble and foreign currency accounts. Our environment is today one of the most attractive in Russia: a deposit of 1000 rubles, spreads from 2 points, the instantaneous execution of transactions on all instruments. Our client a few years became a few thousand traders from all over Russia and CIS countries. It is now also successfully operates and develops the Ukrainian branch of the company, which is fully employed in the context of looming financial and political crisis in the country. European customers served by the Czech branch of the company, offering one of the most affordable rates in the European market.
Work with corporate clients is to develop and implement strategies for hedging currency risks, where Kalita-Finance is actively cooperating with the biggest party of foreign exchange derivatives market in Russia - Citibank. We offer our clients a comprehensive service that helps them to avoid undesirable fluctuations in the exchange rate and the multimillion-dollar losses.
Over the past two years also increased interest in buying our software for Internet trading (draft www.dealingoffice.ru). Several Russian and foreign companies have made their choice in his favor.