Monday, March 16, 2009

Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands Strategy

There are any number of indicators that traders can use. General indicators such as MACD and Stochastics are accessible and are often discussed. If there are 300 types of these indicators, I checked 298 of them. Let us in this article will discuss how the price schedule can be used in tandem with these conventional indicators.

Monitoring the movements of some of candles a day can be fun, and, although the trend lines on the tops and bases of candles can say more, we really need a little more information to provide the price action in perspective. Most of the usual price of graphic tools are Bollindzhera bands and Moving averages. Ask the 900 traders, as they use Moving averages and you'll get 800 different answers. So, let's look at one of the options for responses and discuss the use of upper and lower bands.

Moving Average is constructed, using the closing prices of period "n", where "n" is a long moving average. The upper and lower bands are constructed by placing two moving averages on the schedule, with a rolling average based on the maximum period, and another moving average, based on a minimum period.

If you use different length moving averages (MA), for example, MA with 13 periods based on the maximum period, and another MA in length 7, which was built on a minimum period, you get a price movement back and forth through these Moving averages, as well as intersection directly by moving averages. If you use the same length, say, MA with 13 periods for the two moving averages, the lines would never intersect, and you get a "band" for the price, which it will move.

The first graph shows the 5-minute schedule of ES with a black line for MA with 13 periods based on the maximum and the red line for MA with 13 periods, based on a minimum. To trade, one could go to the short side, if the candle closes below the red band (at least) and go a long way if the candle closes above the black band (maximum). The blue arrows show the entrances to the market, and the red arrows show where the outer band acts as a support or resistance.

Figure 1

How reliable this method? He is as reliable as any other. There is no commercial method that would have been without drawbacks. As the market changes are constant, there will always be a certain amount of price action that will give you false signals. Ever! Let me repeat it again - Always!

Graph 1 and Graph 2, which follows, you can see that when a strong trend, this method can show very good results.

These graphs look impressive, is not it? To no illusions about the real trade, let's look at figure 3.

Figure 2

As you can see, this method of shopping, like many others, terrible stumbles on volatile sideways market. Price moves back and forth across these lines, filing false signals, one after another. Also, please note the blue box - it shows another weakness of these bands - they are based on moving averages, which, in turn, are indicators of delay. The greater the length of moving average, it takes more time to react to Moving Average major price fluctuations, such as GEPy.

Figure 3

One way to get more information by using the bands and moving averages is to add stripes Bollindzhera on top of the upper and lower bands 13EMA. Add Bollindzhera strip length 21 with a standard deviation of 2 on the schedule.

Figure 4

Figure 4 you can see how there are some models. Central Line ????? Bollindzhera an intermittent blue line. The red arrows show where the upper and lower bands 13EMA crossed the center line Bollindzhera, indicating a strong momentum in the movement. The green arrow shows where the price rose above the upper 13EMA, giving a signal in the longest side, which was false. Notice how all the lines, including lines Bollindzhera are flat and neutral to each other.

Seeing this, you can wait until the second bar so that it closed above the upper 13EMA, to check the movement. Keep in mind that your entry criteria can be so conservative, as required by your personality.

You can think of a number of steps or criteria that must be present so that you can enter the market.

For example, the conditions for opening a long position:
1. Two candles must close above the upper 13EMA.
2. Lower 13EMA must converge to the center line Bollindzhera (or cross it).
3. The upper band should be celebrating Bollindzhera Top for 3 consecutive bars.

However, we must not only deal from these bands. As stated in the initial paragraph of this article, we look for any additional information we can get from indicators such as MACD and Stochastics.

Figure 5

The vertical purple line on the graph 5 shows, where the trading signals. The signal in the longest side MACD filed breakthrough trend line, but not confirmed until the price moves above the upper 13EMA, which also coincides with the intersection of bovine ADX. Later, the price closes below the lower 13EMA as soon as the ADX turns into disservice side, RSI crosses the middle line, and both MACD and Stochastics are about to cross the middle line. The more indicators confirms each other in the 2 bars, the stronger the signal.

For these upper and lower bands, I have tried everything from 9EMA to 55EMA, for the interim period from 1 minute to 270 minutes. There are many options for all trading styles. Spend some time experimenting with the parameters and find a model that will complement your style of trading.




Forex Magazine
based on www.esignal.com

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