George Soros, and world currency

Now to lower the rate of development of European and North American economies are trying to say very carefully. Only in Japan, yes even, perhaps, in Germany, are reluctant to recognize this fact in relation to the present time. The President is the U.S. Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan in the middle of 2002, as always in vague terms, made it clear that a recession in the U.S. in fact had never been.

The crisis, or a trend?
However, there are indicators that more accurately reflect economic reality. These include indexes of consumer and business confidence, employment, etc. Nor should we neglect the indirect data such as the behavior of the largest dealers and financial magnates.

Therefore, as the economic or political Korpela on the image of old Europe, but such financial vorotily as George Soros, has to leave its shores. More recently, the famous American financier has reduced staff by one-third of its London-based hedge fund and transferred the vector of interest in New York. According to official information, this step is temporary and is related to the current unstable situation in the European markets. However, some observers believe that the reduction of the London group is only part of a large-scale plan to phase out commercial operations in Europe. Soros Group, whose capital is now the order of $ 11.5 billion and posted on the hedge funds, private equity and property assets, leaving London only core staff, which will focus on operations with the private equity and property assets.

Leadership change
Entry for other hand, the rapidly changing shape of global importance in the banking and investment sectors. On the scene with the scandal vanished this figure, as a Nobel laureate in economics, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Brett Pitt.

Left their posts sansculotte supporter «strong Dollar», the United States Treasury Paul O'Neill and economic adviser Lawrence Lindsey, President of the United States. The latter attributed the authorship of the White House to reduce taxes. Soon, Mervyn King, with his team and their vision of the UK monetary policy will succeed Sir Edward George as head of the Bank of England.

In early July 2003, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Wim Duisenberg will transfer the reins of his French colleague. Most likely, the presidency of the principal banks of Europe will present the Bank of France Governor Jean-Claude Trichet.

Economists believe that the ECB is to be an ideal chance to reorganize its monetary strategy for the French style. Currently, the policy bank is based on two pillars. First - this is limiting the growth of money supply M3 in the formula, and the second - a wide range of indicators of «real economy».

The English case
Britain at that time naterpelas from George Soros. Once Britain in September 1992 to get out of the rigid tutelage of European exchange rate mechanism (ERM), an investment fund, Soros Quantum Endowment Fund immediately brought the pound sterling. Yes as brought! Only a few days of operations with the British currency Soros «fat» billion. However, in the tenth anniversary of the events of the British press changed its opinion and called the September not black and white, because «when Britain's economy is free from the shackles and started to grow rapidly». Now on the horizon of the looming possibility of the British finally deal with the pound. At least, the British Prime Minister Tony Blair wants to force every country to join the euro zone until the end of his stay in the high office, and thereby put themselves in the history of the kingdom as a «watch» the national currency. However, the euro has not yet met all the five key requirements of the Chancellor of Exchequer - finance minister Gordon Brown, which is a prerequisite for the introduction of the single European currency in the UK. Difficult coincidence that Soros left coast Misty Albion almost immediately after the preliminary report on the budget for 2003 submitted by Gordon Brown. At the same time, the reduction of the fund at 30% does not mean downsizing of operations in the European markets. Currently, the largest in the world of hedge funds invested in the order of $ 800 million: 600 million - in the long-term strategy and short-term securities and 200 million - in the strategy of convertible arbitrage and other tools. In 2002, the circumstances for the fund has not quite succeeded. Thus, profit Quantum Endowment Fund decreased by 0.82%, yes even the French justice remembered old grievances. Quite unexpected was the progress of the cause of 14-year-old. In 1988, authorities in France to once again have «left», which, supported by the financier George Pebero decided to take control of the previous government privatized the bank Societe Generale.

For this was a group of influential industrialists. It includes such grants, as a former chairman of L'Oreal Francois Dally, Founder Perrier Leuven and Gustav, now deceased, a British newspaper tycoon Robert Maxwell. One of the advisers on the investment of the Soros Foundation, met with colleagues Pebero in September 1988 in Paris to discuss the possibility of investing the fund in the bank Societe Generale. The results of this meeting, told his adviser to the holder.

Soros and the machinations
But later, Soros declined to join the group in order to expand the game for a fall in share prices. But soon he bought for his Quantum Fund share of the four state-owned companies in France at a total cost of $ 50 million of these companies was the bank Societe Generale.

And now the French justice is accusing George Soros in the use of internal confidential information. The delay is proceeding in 14 years due to the difficulties in obtaining necessary documents, in particular, from Swiss sources. Experts predict that the greatest punishment which threatens billionaire - is a fine of 2.2 million euros. It is so much in the French justice assesses the revenues derived from transactions in shares of Societe Generale. For Soros is not the first meeting with the financial inspection of the Ethics operations with securities. Thus, in the late 70-ies of the Commission on the U.S. Securities and Exchange (SEC) filed a claim for him that he threw into the market a big stake in the company Computer Sciences Corp. in order to lower the price requested by the company. And then, when the shares fell as soon bought them back.

The Commission immediately interested in the operation. But in 1979, Soros signed a contract with the SEC on Reconciliation, who translated the proceedings into a civil suit. This eventually led to the tycoon promise not to do something like that in the future. Hello New York! Ivot George Soros is back in New York. It is with great certainty the view that the dollar bear market is just beginning. And there are ????????????? reasons. Soros, in particular, does not exclude that in the next few years the American currency will lose at least one third of its present value. In addition, the new Minister of Finance of the United States John W. Snow is not burning desire to fight for a strong dollar. His predecessor paid post for the fact that the risk of lengthy interviews indicate that the war with Iraq will cost U.S. 200 billion dollars. Career Snowe in government circles began under President Ford, and the main office which he held until his latest appointment, was closely connected with railway traffic. In 2002, Americans will remember him as a man who, after a scandal in accounts Enron Corporation has called for the advancement of corporate ethics of doing business.

The dollar - a factor of stability of the euro?
It would seem, to Brussels and Frankfurt, and to hedge funds, too, there is an extra reason to open a bottle of champagne. Most of these funds are betting on the dollar decline further, since a single European currency, is not without reason considering that the dollar is largely overheated. Nevertheless, for the world economy and financial markets, further weakening the U.S. currency would be a catastrophe, and the greatest loss, as it is not strange to incur those institutions that most contributed to the strengthening euro. In fact, the strengthening of the dollar is more interested in the European Central Bank, and then the U.S. Federal Reserve.

America can live in comfort and with the weak dollar. Now almost no one in the U.S. is not to suggest that inflation is an issue of paramount importance. All the public attention riveted on the issue of accelerating economic recovery, and indicators of this acceleration is, in turn, increase profits and increase the number of jobs.

Thus, the weakening of the currency would be welcomed by American businessmen. Many academic economists are also calling for a weak dollar, since in their view, the devaluation will help America to significantly reduce the trade deficit without reducing domestic consumption.

Without a doubt, 2003-the year in foreign exchange markets will be hot. Time to put all of their seats and show what the projections were close to the truth, and what does not. One true - it's time to bet!

Maxim Semenov