You can remove from the stock exchange floor trader, but you can not make him forget the habit stock room. Actual example - Linda Raška, which now trades from his office, started as a trader in the exchange hall on the Pacific Stock Exchange in 1981. and then at the Philadelphia Stock Exchange.
Although 17 years have passed since it ceased trading in the hall, Linda said that the market principles and methods of analysis, which she developed at a time, remain an integral part of the trade today. In fact, some of the tools that it uses today, such as oscillator "3-10" (see the full list of indicators below), are essentially the same as it has from his first mentor for more than 20 years ago.
Linda said that the sale "at a higher level," demanded a small adjustment, although the initial primary, all went quite well. Relying solely on "Quotron" (a simple display of price quotations, which was distributed to 1980's), she has successfully traded for 45 weeks, partly due to the fact that technology has contributed to the use of reading data, which it acquired in the exchange hall . But when it received its first software for graphical analysis in 1987. It has lost money for three months.
"It was madness in a sense," she said. "It's like a tennis player who always played on clay and moved to the grass."
Failures and problems are usually not decorated with stories of traders, but Linda Raška quite frank about past mistakes and failures of facts transactions, including the fact that it went bankrupt early in his tenure as trade in the exchange hall, and even today does not always hit its target accurately. Like many traders with experience trading in the exchange hall, she focuses on the sequence - smaller transactions with a high probability.
"I took 11 years to make a long way," she said. "This was the beginning of the 90th, the soybean contracts - short-term deal, which was great. Bull was divergence in the oscillator 3-10. I bought for $ 4.80, expecting the movement to $ 5. It was the year of flooding in the Mississippi River, and I graduated to keep the position even with two extra points (the movement of $ 10,000 for a contract). "
Part of what Linda said, and attempts at its shopping site - it is realism with respect to individual transactions, as well as trade in general - the above example is the exception rather than the rule and the errors occur with each.
"I always try to see the error of his ways," says Linda. "People should know that these things happen to everyone."
Linda Raška takes a practical approach to trade. She pointed out that many potential traders left their jobs when the first attempt to deal professionally and voltage when you try to make money from the sale can be very exhausting.
"It's like to study in college," she said. "You still have to pay the bills when there is to learn - you're working in the evenings in a bar or somewhere else. It is very difficult to sell when you're worried about how to pay the bills."
Record the number
We have seen this before with Linda Raška in November 2003. When we met again in early January 2004. She has just finished upgrading many of its testing and research that support its trade.
She said that did not develop or test a full-fledged trading system, as most people imagine it represents - a set of rules for entry, exit and stop placing orders. Breast notebooks in her office, filled with statistical models and market trends, more similar to the signs, which she uses to make trading decisions in a given time.
"Things that I basically check out the key" counting "or the simulation of market trend," says Linda. "Let us take, for example, bar S & P, which closed above 20% of its range. There is a possibility of approximately 75% of the next bar will be traded above the maximum of the bar, but there are only 50% of second chance that it will close above it. In other words, the model predicts that the market should be traded above the maximum of the last day, but it has no predictive value regarding the closure. This would be a base model or a trend.
"In terms of real trade model like this can influence the situation in several ways," she continues. "At first, it may tempt me to retain existing long positions the previous night due to 75% on expectations of subsequent increases in the next day. Or, if the market opens the next day near or slightly below the previous closing, you could play in the direction of the previous maximum - again, because you know about the 75% probability of the first motion above this maximum.
Many of the notebooks contained records of market activity, it registers manually, mostly within a few hours of analysis performed after the closing of each day. Linda believes that the record is better help her remember important points.
"You will always see things more clearly, when markets are closed," she said. "You are at this moment more objective. I am a big supporter of reference of the working log - record their transactions. Keep your trade as you would any other business."
"Cup of the Holy Grail"
Although it trades in its sole discretion, Linda Raška adamantly about the need to have statistics and strategies to understand the market and concentrate on their trade. For example, she said that her "inner feeling" about the direction of a breakthrough consolidation leaves much to be desired.
"I believe 90% of cases," she says, laughing. "Use me as a counter-trend indicator - I only know whether a low ADX (indicator, which measures the force of the trend), I was prepared to be wrong, if I try to suggest."
Linda Raška indeed actively monitors numerous trading strategies, including trading on the rollback technique called "the Holy Grail cup." The strategy is designed to catch the correction in markets that showed increased momentum with the index of the average direction of movement (ADX) and 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), provided by a trade setup. (see full list of indicators below).
Linda Raška describes an example of a 30-minute schedule of S & P, shown in Figure 1. "The market had a long period of consolidation - what I call the lateral line, which is the foundation of classical technical analysis - in the first two weeks of December," she said. "The market broke up and revealed the new maximum. 18 and 19 December ADX jumped up and oscillator 3-10 signaled new highs on impulse. Consequently, all the signs are increasing the momentum.
"When that happens, I want to buy on rebuilding," she continues. "The 30-minute scale, ADX rose above 30, so we'll buy the first restoration in 20-EMA periodnoy and look for opportunities to enter the push to a new peak."
Installation can be formed at different time scales. In this case, was most appropriate given the option.
"When the market breaks from the trading range, and makes new records of momentum, there is a sequence of events, which is usually done," she explains. "Price first departs periodnoy to the 20-EMA on the 15-minute schedule, even on a five-schedule, then the same will happen to the restoration of a 30-minute schedule, then a 60-minute schedule and then on the 120-minute time scale. This time you have to go top. "
"This is developing into a good sequence," continues Linda. "As the market continues to create new momentum up, there is another installation in the purchase occurred on the time schedule of December 23, and then the other, formed a 120-minute schedule on Jan. 2.
"But everyone should precede the recovery value of 14 bar ADX above 30 at this time scale," she explains. "The best settings will be supported by other factors, such as oscillator 3-10, making new records."
Linda Raška also looks at the oscillator 3-10 to see when traffic starts to lose strength.
"Also, you will often find the 120-minute bear divergence (when the price moves up, move down oscillator 3-10) at the end of the price rises," she said. "This corresponds to the end of fluctuation up or down on the day time scale."
List of indicators
Here is a list of indicators that Linda Raška most often uses in his trade, and analysis:
1. Oscillator 3-10. "Oscillator 3-10 I use since 1981." She says. "This is the difference between a three-day simple moving average and the 10-day simple moving average. Plus, there is a second line, which is a 16-periodnoy a simple moving average of the line 3-10. On the schedule, I usually use MACD, changing the parameters of moving averages with the exponential into simple and lengths of moving averages of 3, 10 and 16. "
2. 14-periodny ADX. This indicator is used to measure the effect of trend.
3. Channels Keltnera, which are trading bands, consisting of lines spaced at 2.5 average true range on both sides of 20-periodnoy exponential moving average.
4. 2-ROC indicator periodny full-time schedules.
5. Latitude closing: 10-SMA periodnaya of stock increases minus reduction.
6. The ratio of demand to the proposal. Linda Raška pyatiperiodnuyu uses a simple Moving Average of demand-supply. This is usually an indicator TRIN.
Although 17 years have passed since it ceased trading in the hall, Linda said that the market principles and methods of analysis, which she developed at a time, remain an integral part of the trade today. In fact, some of the tools that it uses today, such as oscillator "3-10" (see the full list of indicators below), are essentially the same as it has from his first mentor for more than 20 years ago.
Linda said that the sale "at a higher level," demanded a small adjustment, although the initial primary, all went quite well. Relying solely on "Quotron" (a simple display of price quotations, which was distributed to 1980's), she has successfully traded for 45 weeks, partly due to the fact that technology has contributed to the use of reading data, which it acquired in the exchange hall . But when it received its first software for graphical analysis in 1987. It has lost money for three months.
"It was madness in a sense," she said. "It's like a tennis player who always played on clay and moved to the grass."
Failures and problems are usually not decorated with stories of traders, but Linda Raška quite frank about past mistakes and failures of facts transactions, including the fact that it went bankrupt early in his tenure as trade in the exchange hall, and even today does not always hit its target accurately. Like many traders with experience trading in the exchange hall, she focuses on the sequence - smaller transactions with a high probability.
"I took 11 years to make a long way," she said. "This was the beginning of the 90th, the soybean contracts - short-term deal, which was great. Bull was divergence in the oscillator 3-10. I bought for $ 4.80, expecting the movement to $ 5. It was the year of flooding in the Mississippi River, and I graduated to keep the position even with two extra points (the movement of $ 10,000 for a contract). "
Part of what Linda said, and attempts at its shopping site - it is realism with respect to individual transactions, as well as trade in general - the above example is the exception rather than the rule and the errors occur with each.
"I always try to see the error of his ways," says Linda. "People should know that these things happen to everyone."
Linda Raška takes a practical approach to trade. She pointed out that many potential traders left their jobs when the first attempt to deal professionally and voltage when you try to make money from the sale can be very exhausting.
"It's like to study in college," she said. "You still have to pay the bills when there is to learn - you're working in the evenings in a bar or somewhere else. It is very difficult to sell when you're worried about how to pay the bills."
Record the number
We have seen this before with Linda Raška in November 2003. When we met again in early January 2004. She has just finished upgrading many of its testing and research that support its trade.
She said that did not develop or test a full-fledged trading system, as most people imagine it represents - a set of rules for entry, exit and stop placing orders. Breast notebooks in her office, filled with statistical models and market trends, more similar to the signs, which she uses to make trading decisions in a given time.
"Things that I basically check out the key" counting "or the simulation of market trend," says Linda. "Let us take, for example, bar S & P, which closed above 20% of its range. There is a possibility of approximately 75% of the next bar will be traded above the maximum of the bar, but there are only 50% of second chance that it will close above it. In other words, the model predicts that the market should be traded above the maximum of the last day, but it has no predictive value regarding the closure. This would be a base model or a trend.
"In terms of real trade model like this can influence the situation in several ways," she continues. "At first, it may tempt me to retain existing long positions the previous night due to 75% on expectations of subsequent increases in the next day. Or, if the market opens the next day near or slightly below the previous closing, you could play in the direction of the previous maximum - again, because you know about the 75% probability of the first motion above this maximum.
Many of the notebooks contained records of market activity, it registers manually, mostly within a few hours of analysis performed after the closing of each day. Linda believes that the record is better help her remember important points.
"You will always see things more clearly, when markets are closed," she said. "You are at this moment more objective. I am a big supporter of reference of the working log - record their transactions. Keep your trade as you would any other business."
"Cup of the Holy Grail"
Although it trades in its sole discretion, Linda Raška adamantly about the need to have statistics and strategies to understand the market and concentrate on their trade. For example, she said that her "inner feeling" about the direction of a breakthrough consolidation leaves much to be desired.
"I believe 90% of cases," she says, laughing. "Use me as a counter-trend indicator - I only know whether a low ADX (indicator, which measures the force of the trend), I was prepared to be wrong, if I try to suggest."
Linda Raška indeed actively monitors numerous trading strategies, including trading on the rollback technique called "the Holy Grail cup." The strategy is designed to catch the correction in markets that showed increased momentum with the index of the average direction of movement (ADX) and 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), provided by a trade setup. (see full list of indicators below).
Linda Raška describes an example of a 30-minute schedule of S & P, shown in Figure 1. "The market had a long period of consolidation - what I call the lateral line, which is the foundation of classical technical analysis - in the first two weeks of December," she said. "The market broke up and revealed the new maximum. 18 and 19 December ADX jumped up and oscillator 3-10 signaled new highs on impulse. Consequently, all the signs are increasing the momentum.
"When that happens, I want to buy on rebuilding," she continues. "The 30-minute scale, ADX rose above 30, so we'll buy the first restoration in 20-EMA periodnoy and look for opportunities to enter the push to a new peak."
Installation can be formed at different time scales. In this case, was most appropriate given the option."When the market breaks from the trading range, and makes new records of momentum, there is a sequence of events, which is usually done," she explains. "Price first departs periodnoy to the 20-EMA on the 15-minute schedule, even on a five-schedule, then the same will happen to the restoration of a 30-minute schedule, then a 60-minute schedule and then on the 120-minute time scale. This time you have to go top. "
"This is developing into a good sequence," continues Linda. "As the market continues to create new momentum up, there is another installation in the purchase occurred on the time schedule of December 23, and then the other, formed a 120-minute schedule on Jan. 2.
"But everyone should precede the recovery value of 14 bar ADX above 30 at this time scale," she explains. "The best settings will be supported by other factors, such as oscillator 3-10, making new records."
Linda Raška also looks at the oscillator 3-10 to see when traffic starts to lose strength.
"Also, you will often find the 120-minute bear divergence (when the price moves up, move down oscillator 3-10) at the end of the price rises," she said. "This corresponds to the end of fluctuation up or down on the day time scale."
List of indicators
Here is a list of indicators that Linda Raška most often uses in his trade, and analysis:
1. Oscillator 3-10. "Oscillator 3-10 I use since 1981." She says. "This is the difference between a three-day simple moving average and the 10-day simple moving average. Plus, there is a second line, which is a 16-periodnoy a simple moving average of the line 3-10. On the schedule, I usually use MACD, changing the parameters of moving averages with the exponential into simple and lengths of moving averages of 3, 10 and 16. "
2. 14-periodny ADX. This indicator is used to measure the effect of trend.
3. Channels Keltnera, which are trading bands, consisting of lines spaced at 2.5 average true range on both sides of 20-periodnoy exponential moving average.
4. 2-ROC indicator periodny full-time schedules.
5. Latitude closing: 10-SMA periodnaya of stock increases minus reduction.
6. The ratio of demand to the proposal. Linda Raška pyatiperiodnuyu uses a simple Moving Average of demand-supply. This is usually an indicator TRIN.
Forex Magazine
based on www.activetradermag.com
based on www.activetradermag.com
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