The policy of the Central Bank of Russia for a long time is puzzling to many experts. In particular, this applies to the imposed mid-year of compulsory redundancy on the import of capital into the country. According to analysts, so the Central Bank decides not to state, but their narrow objectives.
CB is playing hide and seek with the economy
In late September, first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia Alexey Ulyukaev has promised to reduce the compulsory reserve rate for the import of capital into Russia. This news was expected, given the negative impact on the economy associated with the Bank of Russia, attempts to limit the scope of cross-border capital transactions.
However, there are two pressing issues. What was the need for any institution to enter the reservation on 7 June this year? And why did the Central Bank intends to reduce the rate of back-up only on the import of capital? The economic logic of these actions has been observed.
It seems that the Central Bank operates on the basis of myths about the state of the Russian economy, rather than on the basis of a clear understanding of its processes.
Hut Uncle Tobin
To get started, try to figure out what this thing this - how to book capital cross-border operations - and why all of a sudden Russia was the only country in the world, applying such a radical way of exchange controls. The idea of restricting the movement of capital across national borders appeared in 1972 and belongs to the well-known American economist, Nobel laureate in economics James Tobin. In 1950 he was appointed Associate Professor at Yale University, who became his permanent place of work.
In addition to teaching, Tobin conducted research in financial markets, developed the theoretical issues relating to changes in the size of funds (assets) and the situation in the money markets under the influence of policy decisions in the field of consumption, production and investment.
In 1970 he was elected president of the American Economic Association. It was a brilliant economist, on his views of a great devotee of economic theories of Keynes, is critical of the "very simplistic monetary approach" another American economist - Milton Friedman.
In Russia, the name of the Tobin was widely known in discussing the new law "On Currency Regulation and Currency Control", which came into force this year. And then only in relation to the administrative restrictions of import and export of capital from Russia, owned by a Russian resident, and foreign investors.
This is the famous "Tobin tax". In 1972 he proposed to impose the so-called portfolio investors special tax for the purchase of securities, and besiege the same collection of any transactions in foreign currency. According to researchers, it was necessary to limit the number of speculative transactions in the international currency market and make the Bretton Woods monetary system more stable.
However, developers of the new Russian law with the introduction of back-up cross-border capital transactions failed to take into account two factors. First, the work of J. Tobin was devoted to the reform of the Bretton Woods system of exchange rates proposed by the Minister of Finance of Britain Keynes back in 1947 and binds all national currencies to the U.S. dollar. At the time, French President de Gaulle used this feature to change all stored in a French bank cards Federal Reserve gold. This was a major step towards the elimination of the Bretton Woods system. In 1973, it replaced a system of floating exchange rates. The second fact is even more serious. The point is that by proposing to impose a tax on cross-border capital transactions, the Tobin's work "Essays in Economics" ( "Essays on Economics, 1971) pointed out that such a system could be effective only if it will adhere to all countries around the world. Separate as the introduction of such a tax only on the harm the development of national economies. Stepped on a rake strangers despite warnings by the concept of currency regulation, to adopt a "Tobin tax" in the last decade have tried to many developing countries.
Thus, the institution of a mandatory deposit of capital inflows in 1991, was introduced in Chile. But after seven years, the Government, faced with serious economic problems, remove the tax as ineffective. Reservation has led to a reduction in inflows of foreign direct investment in the Chilean economy, despite the fact that relative to investment in real sector of the measure was never implemented. Moreover, Chile has never imposed on the reservation of capital outflows from the country. This portfolio investors "Tobin tax" skillfully avoided.
In the early 90's. tried to introduce a similar system and monetary authorities in many Eastern European states, but it was not felt there. Moreover, in the spring of this year from the regulatory capital transactions declined Vietnam. China compensates for the rigidity of the currency legislation presence of free economic zones that are not available in Russia and in the near future, probably will not.
The possibility of a "Tobin tax" in our country provided for in Articles 7 ( "The regulation of the Government of the Russian Federation of foreign exchange transactions of capital movements") and 8 (Management of the Central Bank of Russian Federation, foreign currency transactions of capital movements ") of the new law" On Currency Regulation and Currency Control " . Both of these articles have been made to the bill at the last moment on insistence of representatives of the Central Bank. Articles include the possibility of reserving part of the investors in the import or export of capital from the country.
However, one of the developers of the law, the chairman of Business Roundtable Russia (CSIS), Pyotr Mostovoy, explained that when these articles were written, the Central Bank has assured the sponsors that they will be used only as a last resort.
However, on June 7, a week before the new law enters into force, the Bank of Russia has issued an instruction N116-and on the types of special accounts of residents and nonresidents. " In accordance with this document, commercial banks are obliged to stop to open accounts in foreign currency for non-residents, as well as 1 Aug., 2004 to stop operations at their ruble accounts.
In addition, the Central Bank introduced the rule of reservation of the imported or exported currency. For importation, it was initially set at 7%, and then, under pressure from the presidential administration and government, reduced to 3%. Now, first deputy chairman of the Central Bank Alexey Ulyukaev promises to further reduce this rate.
However, in this case the backup does not take into account the individual risks, and of a set of functions that perform compulsory redundancy, only one - more expensive deals. In the scope of the measures and investment credits are for 5 years (for which corporations are struggling because they are cheaper than the resident), and trade financing, it is very common and important for exporters.
Another type of redundancy is also introduced by the Central Bank, with respect to transactions in securities or foreign exchange transactions - how to book the entire amount of funds for a period of 15 days. In fact, this measure is the forced postponement of payment, while the stock market has operations, deferring the payment of which, according to lawyers, not possible.
The question is, what may be to hold all of these experiments over the economy. And in order to respond to it, enough to resort to the classic analysis of financial flows.
Total Experiment According to the MEDT, at the end of March 2004 the accumulated foreign capital in the Russian economy amounted to $ 57.1 billion on average per month in Russia come around $ 1.6 billion of foreign investment. Accordingly, in June, foreign investors have been reserved at the Central Bank of $ 112 million after declining rate reserve from 7% to 3% of the amount of funds that foreign investors each month delay due to the Central Bank, is $ 48 million a month. That is, for a year Russian enterprises, attracting foreign investment, may be lost $ 960 million.
However, the direct damage to the Russian economy from the actions of the Central Bank is not limited. The point is that any interest on those reserves of the Bank of Russia does not intend to charge. In other words, he gets free credit. EU-Lee would be the money the investor polo-lived in a foreign bank, it would be 1.5-3% of annual net income. Accordingly, return it to this loss of revenue will be the recipients of investment, ie domestic companies.
Interestingly, the introduction of the "Tobin tax" in Russia occurred at a time when newly emerged slowdown of foreign investment in fixed capital. That is the monitoring data, carried out not so long ago, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade. "Growth in foreign direct investment in the Russian economy has shown a downward trend", - says the paper circulated this office in June 2004.
At the same time, the Central Bank has imposed an additional 50% case backup export of money for 15 days. In other words, foreign investors invested their funds in the Russian economy and creating jobs for the Russians, would not only pay 3% of the Bank of Russia on import of capital, but also free to lend it to half a month, unable to remove immediately all from the net profits .
You can calculate how many will lose from this transaction by Russian manufacturers. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the average inflation rate in Russia is approximately 0.7%. That is, giving half the money the central bank for 15 days, the investor will lose approximately 0.3-0.4% of them. And again, would compensate for the loss of investment - Russian companies and firms.
If the investor is not exported from profits, but, for example, would have given it as a loan is not the Bank of Russia, and to some other financial institution, it could still earn at least 7% per annum - half-guilty in the refinancing rate of CB. And this "lost profits" investors also have to pay the Russians.
The only argument, which leads the Central Bank, the "Tobin tax", is that in Russia there is a need for restrictions on speculative trading in the stock market and the influx does not direct and portfolio foreign investment. The strategy is not devoid of meaning, but only if the balance of the foreign trade balance is negative, as was the case in Chile in the 90's. or in the countries of Eastern Europe. In Russia, it is positive, and, according to the State Customs Service, the volume this year should grow by no less than 8%. The monthly increase in the surplus of foreign trade balance amounts to an average of $ 100 million and the annual trade turnover is quite comparable to the annual turnover of foreign exchange in Russia, which this year is projected professionals MICEX, should exceed $ 250 billion.
Thus, even a simple comparison of figures shows that the inflow of foreign investment in Russia is not yet a problem for its economic development, and associated risks are minimal. As regards portfolio investment, their share in the first half of 2004, according to the Ministry of Economic Development, was only 2.7%.
Bank gop-stop
Mr. Bridge is confident: "The central bank, introducing a redundancy of capital cross-border operations, is trying to solve the problems of the financial industry at the expense of other sectors of the Russian economy." In other words, this is not about trying to "save" the entire Russian economy, which claimed the Bank of Russia, and attempts to pull out of the plight of individual financial and credit institutions. And the Central Bank is trying to do so by increasing the stability of the banking system through fiscal instruments - the "Tobin tax".
Reserving part of foreign investors on their accounts, the Bank of Russia thereby artificially, on paper improves a number of indicators related to performance in the Russian banking system this year. First of all, these are the coefficients of current and urgent liquidity problem which started in the year. And in many ways, as analysts believe, because of inefficient actions is the Central Bank.
A decline in the liquidity of the domestic banking system is broke out this summer cause of the banking crisis. And while the Bank of Russia claims that there was no crisis, the figures speak for themselves. Recall at the beginning of April, the liquidity of the banking system, ie the sum of balances on correspondent accounts and deposits with the Central Bank, exceeded 518 billion rubles. By June, just two months, it dropped by half - to about 250 billion rubles. The total debt of the domestic banking system to foreign creditors in 2003, increased by 3 times.
In the back-up for cross-border capital transactions was introduced in June, when the banking crisis was in full swing, there is no overlap. This is just a clumsy attempt to solve the problem of one branch at the expense of others: to start refinancing the banking system is not at the expense of the Central Bank, but by investment, which should act on commodity markets, but not in the financial sector.
Interestingly, the other market, rather than fiscal instruments to refinance the banking system in the Central Bank just did not go. "Market-based instruments are used poorly Central Bank", - said Head of the Analytical Research Institute for Strategic Studies Natalia Sharaeva. Here's the CB and had to seek other, non-market ways of maintaining the liquidity of the domestic banking system. However, the monetary policy such accounting tricks do not have any relationship.
Statement Ulyukaeva that the rate of reserve capital cross-border transactions can be reduced to coincide with another event. In September, was marked by a small increase in balances on correspondent accounts - up to 211.7 billion rubles. Thus, it is possible to waste less money from investors.
No comments:
Post a Comment