For the past many years for hundreds of millions of people in Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America, the word "dollar" symbol of the financial well-being, stability and business confidence in the future. Irrational belief in the power of green bumazhek forcing them to share tons of oil, cubic meters of gas, gold, precious stones, works of art. Each of the regular case is there, it only strengthens financial falls general opinion: "With the dollar not propadesh. However, when the real causes and mechanism of these falls to the vast majority remain secret for the seven seals. Meanwhile, an impartial analysis of all military, political and financial crises of recent times shows the same - at least much of it was used in order to preserve the integrity of the position of the dollar. And with them, and economic stability in the U.S..
But if such a Herculean effort (about them later) are applied in order to strengthen the dollar, it means that in reality he faces a serious risk. This danger, which has already transformed the American currency in the delayed-action mine laid by all the existing global financial order.
To get started - history of. Indeed, where is takes the current world empire dollar? Leaving aside the standard rhetoric about the role of organizing the elements of free enterprise and touching confidence of Europeans, Asians, Latin Americans of the financial genius of the Washington Government, it can be said directly: from the devastation of postwar Europe, the Cold War and lovingly cultivated respect to the overall American power.
It all started during the Second World War. Against the backdrop of raging in Europe, Asia and Africa, fighting the United States, did not suffer the devastating effects of material and human losses, increasing with every passing month. Increasing military supplies as their own army or allies, led to unprecedented economic growth and industrial production growth. But the reason they say that money is the backbone of the war. Massive government orders, troop and military bases around the world - this requires appropriate financial infusions. And Americans were not here to reinvent the wheel, did what happened during the war, always and everywhere. The money needed? Print! And the print. And at a pace that only the mass of paper money in the U.S. during the years of war has increased in 3,6 times. What to do - had to borrow from the future on the security of the coming victory. But the war ended. Before Washington was a question: what to do with all this huge money? Just take away from citizens and corporations, and destruction? It is impossible. Leave everything as is? The memory of the then-American leaders was good, and they are perfectly aware of what would happen if all this gigantic amount of money to block the national borders. If anyone has forgotten, Germany, see the beginning of the 20's. Classic example. After the First World War, the entire money supply, which provides manufacturing and operations kayzerovskoy military machine in the space of the North Sea to the Persian Gulf, has proved to squeeze in the Weimar Republic border. The result was disastrous. Hyperinflation, the actual collapse of industrial production, the intensification of political extremism and separatist movements. Then the German leadership was able to hold power only through a political virtuoso zhonglerstvu, frank reliance on military force and hard work to stabilize the economy. The U.S. government in such circumstances would have lasted until the next election.
Yield was found, a simple and ingenious. Announced its U.S. Secretary of State George C. Marshall, 5 June, 1947, when the plan put forward the economic regeneration of Europe with the active participation of the United States. Under this plan, the seventeen European countries is provided in the form of grants and 11.6 billion dollars more in loans 1.8 billion extra dollars. Threatened to ruin the American economy. The situation changed radically. All the money, cash and cash so generously created out of thin air the U.S. government during the war and after it, now collected in taxes and sent abroad, while in the U.S. itself remained only dollars, secured commodity production and gold reserves. Unsecured money simply exported. This export-led Europe in 50 years to unprecedented inflation. And only the sound understanding of the majority of European leaders to basic economic truths helped liberate the Old World from the dollar dictates. Which resulted in an unprecedented collapse of U.S. currency. But this only happened in the late 60's.
Now a bit about the part of the overall dollar expansion, which is caused by the phenomenon, by the Americans, grandiose, and some of them ironically, referred to as "the burden of global leadership."
Actually, the first popolznoveniya U.S. to active military expansion outside the American continent are from the end of XIX century. However, the powerful European and Asian countries until the Second World War, hampered the appetites of American financial and political elite. Since 1945, the situation has changed, and radically. European countries - and the vanquished and the victors - lay in ruins. Forced to rely on the need for American economic and military aid, the deployment of American troops on the territories of European states are not stimulated by their governments own policies. All that was left to find the unifying core for the consolidation of Europe under the hegemony of the United States. And the rod was found, a particularly good look for him and was not required. Fultonskaya speech of Winston Churchill 5 Jun, 1946 marked the beginning of an open confrontation of USSR and the USA - the cold war. Constantly growing tension on the line of partition in Europe has led Europeans to think about defense against the Soviet threat. The real or imaginary. March 17, 1948 Britain, France, Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg sign the Brussels Treaty on Collective Security. In June the same year the U.S. Senate adopted the so-called Vandenberg resolution, expressing its readiness to assume the security of Europeans. And finally, on 4 April 1949 in Washington signed an agreement to establish the North Atlantic Treaty Organization - NATO. The contract then, 12 countries participated.
Europe Benefits from the establishment of NATO were evident. The lion's share of total military expenditures based on the United States, the Europeans were under the American nuclear umbrella. But ... Soon discovered and the reverse side of these benefits. First, European countries have long lost their autonomy in the military and political matters. And, secondly, to Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America rushed a new stream of unsecured dollars. Interesting fact: since 1950, except 1957, 1968 and 1969, the U.S. external balance had a permanent deficit, although until 1971 the external trade balance was superfluous. In other words, the United States has consistently exported a huge quantity of its own currency, sending it to the American troops abroad, to conduct combat operations to support friendly regimes and, of course, to invest in foreign economies. The dollar reached its peak flow in 1966, when it was taken out of 54,6 billion dollars. Where do all these denznaki take? The answer is simple - have been printed. In those numbers, which showed the need for the Washington administration.
The unprecedented emission of dollars generated effects, to predict which was not much trouble. One reason for confidence in U.S. currency was the Bretton Woods Agreement signed in 1944, and establishes a fixed dollar relative to gold: $ 35 per ounce of metal. The mere reversal of currency in gold suggests that the gold reserve of the State should be sufficient to cover the currency notes issued. Meanwhile, since 1960, the total amount of dollar-denominated assets held by the central bank, we and the central non-banks outside the U.S. exceeded U.S. gold reserves. At this time a non-US banking institutions are changing large amounts of gold dollars. Gold supply the United States falls. Together with him and falling confidence in the American currency. The persistent desire of Americans to make the world pay for their military and economic adventures eventually led to a response. A start has put the French. President de Gaulle 4 February, 1965 announced the transition to the real gold in international payments and the rejection of the dollar as a universal substitute for the precious metal. France held a mass exchange their dollar reserves into gold. By the end of the year from 5.5 billion French gold reserves itself the American currency has remained no more than 800 million followed the example of French and West Germany. In March 1968, the Americans abolished convert dollar to gold at a fixed rate for the non-banking headquarters. People finally lost confidence in U.S. currency and start fast to get rid of it. Only since the end of 1969 to September 1971 foreign exchange reserves (mainly dollars) to banks in Western Europe, Canada and Japan increased by 3 times: from 14,5 billion dollars to 45 billion U.S. is in a massive exchange of money for gold by central banks of other countries . At the same time, the 1970 U.S. gold reserves amounted to only 11.1 billion dollars. By the end of July 1971, he fell to the limit, according to the American authorities, the level - less than 10 billion dollars. Support the further the dollar is overvalued in terms of foreign trade deficit was not possible. In the end, America capitulated.
"Nixon-shock: Aug 15, 1971, U.S. President Richard Nixon announced the prohibition of converting dollars into gold and desyatiprotsentnoy imposing import duties. The financial pyramid, built by Americans, starting with the 40's, collapsed. In December, the dollar was devalued relative to gold at 7,89%, in response to the refusal to demand gold in exchange for a cheap dollar rising rates of major European currencies and Japanese yen. February 13, 1973 occurred a new devaluation, the price of gold has reached 42.2 dollars per ounce, but it turned out to be fictitious - to buy gold at that price, it was impossible. The new system of floating exchange rates, formalized an international conference in Paris on 16 March 1973, actually found the full independence of the exchange rate of the actual ratio of the commodity and money and opened the way for the full arbitrariness of public authorities in relation to money. In the U.S., began an era of inflation.
But let us return to consideration of the current situation. According to the IMF for 1998, the total mass of dollars in cash circulation of more than 400 billion dollars (according to other estimates, 460 billion). Of these, the most conservative estimates, more than 200 billion are outside the United States, including up to 100 billion dollars (!!!) in Russia. Annual export of cash U.S. currency outside the U.S. is about 15 billion dollars. Even in Europe, 48% of all trade transactions occur in dollars. However, any unbiased analysis of the current state of U.S. and world economy as a whole, said one thing: dollar pyramid, arranged in a long time, once again came at a critical juncture.
Let's start step by step. Ten years ago the total debt of American States, American companies and citizens was a huge amount of 11 400 billion dollars. Today, the total foreign debt of the United States is about 5.6 billion dollars, while they should be Americans, only about 4.5 billion difference between the amount of foreign investment in the U.S. and U.S. to the rest of the world, in fact, represents the external debt of the United States. It is no news permanent failures in U.S. commercial and industrial rivalry with Europe and Japan. In 1998, the United States accounted for 12% of world trade, while the share of the European Union - 38%. In the same year, the U.S. external deficit was 250 billion dollars.
The United States have driven themselves into a position where the State becomes a permanent prisoner of exponential increase in debt and debt interest. Since 1971, the U.S. budget deficit is constantly covered by issuing government securities. In other words the U.S. government, intentionally or unintentionally, has crafted a huge financial pyramid. To date, the debt the U.S. government to gosbumagam is more than 4 trillion dollars and this debt is growing. Funding for the debt held by the removal of money from the monetary system. The result was higher interest rates, which in turn adversely affect the business. According to some experts, credit system has undermined the dollar and made its currency unit, devoid of any real commercial coverage. The huge mass of dollars circulating pose a serious threat of hyperinflation. In this regard, of particular importance, three factors, the interaction to date is obviously the dollar to a new collapse. The first factor - that the structure of liabilities of the U.S. Federal Reserve. At 10% Fed liabilities consist of gold, ie, have real value. The remaining 90% represent precisely the same federal securities in which Nixon carried out since the financing of budget deficits. In other words, the real value of the dollar provides the promise of the American treasury. What is the cost of these promises, the world is well learned in the days of Nixon-shock. The U.S. government considers itself entitled to terminate unilaterally the contract with the holders of securities issued by them, as Americans, and foreigners. By the way, Nixon did not invent anything new here. In 1933, during the Great Depression, Congress passed a law under which people and corporations were forced to surrender the gold at a fixed rate of 20.67 dollars per ounce, after which the price of gold has increased the Fed to $ 35 per ounce. The Americans were denied their own state law exchange banknotes for gold, which is a state he previously guaranteed. The point is that the U.S. property rights are not constitutionally fixed, and the laws which, as experience shows, as required by changing arbitrarily. This is the second important factor, representing a serious threat to the holders of dollars. Finally, the steady decline in professional standards of government suggests that the more recent tendency of senior U.S. political and financial adventures will only grow. The absence of a deterrent in the face of another superpower has created a sense of the American authorities still allowed, as in the foreign or domestic policy. At a time when the stability of U.S. currency is increasingly dependent on the actions of public authorities, this situation is particularly dangerous. Among the elite of the world's financial world has increased substantially to create a more stable system of reserve currencies.
Another point is that the relative political and military weakness of the Europeans and Japanese, until very recently did not allow them to cast any serious challenge to the dominance of the dollar. And now, finally, the first step was taken. From 1 January 1999, 11 States of the European Union - Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland, Austria and Finland - have moved to a single currency system. Britain, Sweden and Denmark temporarily refrain. A new currency - the euro, while in non-cash form. Accordingly, all non-cash amounts up to 1 January 1999 expressed in U.S. dollars were converted at the rate of 1.28 dollars per 1 euro. For personal euro will begin after 2002, when a single de-sensitive unit to replace national European currencies. Finally something for the world financial market will be a real alternative to the dollar. It's no secret that this was the main goal and the introduction of the euro. Developed countries clearly felt that the dollar pyramid zashatalas. There is a need to protect themselves from the consequences of its collapse, which could destroy all the existing financial structure.
Of course, that there is no agreement among the world's major financial centers on the introduction of the euro did not exist, there could not be otherwise. In the Asian region, the introduction of a new world reserve currency, which could weaken the dominant position of the dollar, was met with enthusiasm. It has long plotted to make the yen currency, capable of competing with the dollar as world reserve, and the apparent weakening of the dollar at the hands of the Europeans, led to the apparent satisfaction. In January 1999, in Hong Kong, this issue was discussed at the meeting of heads of central banks of member countries of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. Intensively discussed topic in the introduction of the axial rate of Japanese yen. It is clear that in business circles of Japan, the idea was very welcomed. 15-16 January 1999 in Frankfurt-am-Main was a meeting of Finance Ministers of the European Union and several Asian countries. The main issue - the ratio of the euro, dollar and yen, which would ensure the stability of world financial markets. In the same month, negotiations took place, Prime Minister Obuchi of Japan and French President Chirac, who was invited to convene in autumn 1999 meeting of Heads of State and Government of the IMF Interim Committee, which includes, inter alia, to consider the world's main reserve currency . And we can confidently say that the U.S. position in this case appeared to be a very unattractive way. In fact, the U.S. currency is much less assured gold reserves than the European or Japanese. In short, the attack on the U.S. began an offensive and very serious.
Of course, in the U.S. for all that have responded with extreme hostility. Indeed, with the introduction of the euro, European and Asian central banks, of course, started to decrease the proportion of U.S. currency in their reserves and to increase the share of the euro and the yen. As a result of global financial markets would have a significant mass of extra dollars. The total amount of money that could, according to experts, up to 50 billion dollars. Course dollar is bound to fall, that would cause a further devastating consequences. Other countries and their citizens would change dollars for euros, as a stronger currency, and rivers of depreciated dollars fled back to the United States. The economic disaster in the United States proved to be not-minuemoy.
In addition, the U.S. realized that the country stands on the threshold of a new cyclical recovery of industry and science. But such a recovery in these circumstances would require a vast range of financial and commodity resources to that of domestic U.S. sources is simply impossible. Real money must produce on the world market. With the strengthening of the euro and the yen as such a mechanism to attract funds, as the high interest rate the Federal Reserve and the overvalued dollar, stopped working. To turn in financial flows to the side of Americans to demand their actions entirely different nature. And they have received for the work.
During 1997-1998, the U.S. held a number of global operations, which was in sharp decline in investment attractiveness of European and Asian markets and the easing has not yet appeared common European and Asian currencies. Outwardly, the Americans and did not attempt to demonstrate their dissatisfaction with plans for a new European or an Asian currency unit. Moreover, Washington be pretended that it was ready to cooperate with the Europeans and Asians in the building of a stable system of global reserve currencies. In reality, the beginning of this financial war.
The fighting took place in the spaces of South Africa to Russia, from Brazil to South-East Asia. The largest in the history of financial and economic crisis, a victim who, along with the "Asian tigers", had fallen and Russia, of course, had a number of objective reasons, but the role of organizing the U.S., supported by international financial speculators, are evident. Signaled the beginning of the crisis was the fall of the South African rand (European companies have a strong presence in South Africa). Then the stock markets collapsed and currencies in South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong. Crisis wave covered and Japan, which, incidentally, is actively promoted and U.S. investors are playing in the local market. The impact of Europe has suffered through Russia. European investors owned unconditional leadership in the market of foreign capital invested in Russia. Only on GKO-OFZ market, they controlled more than a third of the total package (70 billion dollars). Accordingly, the August crisis, the de facto bankruptcy of the state and more than three-fold devaluation of the ruble hardest hit precisely on the European capital. The biggest losses the Germans, which, incidentally, was one of the reasons for defeat in elections in September 1998, Chancellor Kohl, one of the principal architects of the European Union and, in particular, his economic policies. Leading pan-European currency, the creator has no business for just before its introduction into circulation. So of the two main opponents of the dollar - yen and the euro - the first was removed in the near future, and the second dealt a crippling blow. But even this situation has not been able to break the desire of a large part of the business world to oppose the euro dollar dictates. In early 1999, the euro has become stronger, influential U.S.. It took a special, potent means to return the former U.S. influence. This means, for the thought of the Clinton Administration, was to become the Yugoslav crisis. Have become common thinking that the American leadership deliberately provoked a military operation in Yugoslavia, to solve a series of political and economic challenges. But the problem is a pan-European currency, is almost the main reason for the NATO strikes on Yugoslavia.
Beginning operations in the Balkans immediately affected the rate of the euro. European money started to fall in price. Indeed, the power of Europe lies in the stability. And the euro was conceived as the most stable currency in the world. His radical unlike, say, the dollar or the ruble is that the European currency is not the Government of the host, from which the issue or simply thoughtless actions could bring down the course. But this is already twice in the past 70 years has led the U.S. currency to a deep fall. Stability of the euro provided by the agreed actions of the leading states of Europe. All of this has worked for the credibility of the euro. But it turned out that European stability is easy to destroy. In Europe over the war. Europe split. In Europe, an hotbed of instability, which for many years, will provide policy makers and financiers headache. Of course, the collapse of the euro has not led the Yugoslav crisis. Too high power main European powers. But a serious loss of Europe in its political and economic authority is obvious. The European Union has a political dwarf. The Balkan crisis has strengthened waver was the view that the Old World nesamostoyatelen politically, that dependence on American military power will always be stronger than the will of Europeans to freedom. The dollar is stronger, again running on the prosperity of the American economy. Europe has made great efforts to return to his credibility.
Now consider, how to get the American administration for its relatively favorable situation on world financial markets.
The statistics for the last 2 years seems definitely say that the U.S. economy is experiencing a recovery, if not flourishing. Unemployment is a record low - 5%. In 1998, for the first time in 30 years in the U.S. experienced a budget surplus of $ 69.2 billion: America is simply not able to digest the flow of global finance, retiring from the European and Asian markets. Only in November 1998 on the American stock market was 13 billion dollars against 2.5 billion dollars in October. The growth of quotations of securities substantially higher growth in production. Dow Jones in March 1999 for the first time in history, reached the turn in 10 000 points. It would seem, against the backdrop of the volatility of the euro and the yen chance of a catastrophic collapse of the dollar is extremely low. Meanwhile, a number of signs point to a dangerous overheating of the American financial market, fraught with enormous upheaval.
According to some experts, the growth of American economy is false, speculative. In the Clinton presidency the Fed lowered interest rates to unprecedented levels - 3%. Such a policy stimulates demand and leads to economic growth. However, industrial growth, caused by credit expansion, is artificial and unreliable. The ambitious investment projects, is taking businesses through low-cost credit, will inevitably collapse at the first sign of the volatility of the currency. Many financial experts agree that the Clinton administration deliberately provoking an artificial economic boom, to ensure that the Democratic Party victory in the upcoming presidential election. However, the Government was not able to support clearly-overdue structural reforms of economy, renewal of scientific and technological and industrial base, the management structure. There is a situation reminiscent of the American economy in the 20-ies. Then the Federal Reserve has been able to maintain an artificial level of matter-ing activity during the 8 years. All over the collapse of 1929. In addition, the gradual recovery of Asian and European markets will affect the U.S. market. Not many specialists clearly warn investors of the investment in the American economy. Cargo backlog economic situation of the dollar makes mistakes is extremely fragile and sensitive to the ill political hodam.
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