The events of the summer of 2004 proved unexpectedly violent and negative for many banks. While the Central Bank of Russia, our main banking regulator, said that there was no crisis, there are other views. 0bozrevatel «Sun», addressed the forum in Sochi with the question: «Is there a bank crisis in Russia? If yes, when and why? »
VA Tarachev, a member of the Russian Federation State Duma Committee on Credit Organizations and Financial Markets, doctor of economic sciences, professor:
- Currently, the objective preconditions for the emergence of large-scale crisis there. I think in this matter, most experts would agree with me. «The crisis of trust», which erupted in July, is over. The situation is gradually returning to normal and, likely, expect new surprises should not be. However, the events of last summer have shown that even minor disturbances in the market may not only cause panic among depositors, who are traditionally prone to nervous sentiment, but among the banks themselves.
Well, now there are two key questions, from which depends the stability of the banking system of our country - the successful entry of banks into the deposit insurance and credit risk reduction. Regarding insurance, the main concerns are the results of audits the Bank of Russia. Until March 2005 the Central Bank must complete them, and it is important that the regulator does not nalomal firewood. Waivers to the entry in the system can trigger a chain reaction among investors and lead to a new crisis.
The next point is related to credit risk. It is obvious that because of the lack of «bad loans» can be absolutely real cause of the next banking crisis. It should be borne in mind that non-credit in the amount of 10-15% of their total volume can lead the country to a crisis no less destructive than the default of 1998. Proof of this is the experience of some Southeast Asian countries, particularly South Korea. In this situation the first priority of public authorities is becoming the development and adoption of effective measures to maintain stability and competitiveness of Russian banks. And we in the State Duma will do our utmost to accomplish this task.
VD Mehryakov, Vice-President of JSC «Khanty-Mansiysk Bank», doctor of economic sciences, professor:
- In essence, the crisis that occurred in the banking sector this summer, are a reflection of the volatility of the economy as a whole, its high dependence on world energy prices and slow adjustment. These negative factors, which began long before the «crisis» in the banking sector, continue to apply until now. For example, in July this year acquired a population of foreign currency has reached the absolute maximum for the entire recent history of Russia, he made $ 6.9 billion These figures are based not only because of seasonal factors and the desire of people to withdraw their money from problem banks. They are based on a number of other internal and external factors that encourage capital outflows. This «YUKOS case», and the expectation of growth rates in the U.S., and the destruction of the stock market, and much more. Commercial banks are too dependent on the turmoil in other sectors of the economy. Therefore, the threat of a new crisis in the banking sector does not exist, is hardly correct.
AN Mamontov, president of the Moscow International Currency Association:
- Despite the view of monetary authorities believe that the banking crisis was and is. It continues and develops. The word «crisis» in Greek means a turning point, the difficult transition state anything. And, actually, what is still happening in our banking system is not moving (and very difficult) to its qualitatively new state? The new legislative field (law on deposit insurance, the new currency law, the law on combating the laundering of illegal proceeds, the law on mortgage securities, etc.) come and new players. The banking business is becoming more transparent. He loses many of its special services, such as the creation of «gray» schemes for customers, «pocket» services affiliated legal entities and natural persons, etc. In addition, acute competition for the «long» liabilities - the population. In turn, and people with income growth produces greater demand for the old and new banking products.
I had predicted in January, the beginning of the crisis in the banking system during the summer of 2004, and it is in relation to major changes in the rules of the game, the coming into force of the new legislation. The consequences of these changes, we have only begun to feel. And because more and more complications are inevitable. Unfortunately, the complex was not ready to change again as the chief overseer and regulator of the money - the CBR. Moreover, he not only supervised the process from the outset, but also it is unlikely to be adequately assessed in relation to the emerging new realities of the threats and risks. I am convinced that it is the actions of CB heated to the limit situation that had developed prior to this as a normal and natural reaction to the objective processes. Projected developments in connection with the extremely negative. The crisis will grow. Today he, «zalechenny» only its visible manifestations, went deep. But very soon it will come again from the latent state and breaks with a new, far more destructive force. Already, its influence extends to other sectors of the market, especially in the bond market, currencies, equities, at the construction market and the real estate market. Banks will be subjected to new shocks in the form of devaluation of their assets and mortgages, a sharp reduction in profitability. Increase the risks of not. Declined and has already begun to decrease the amount of commercial lending.
Already in May the rate of growth of crediting the economy fell more than three times. In the third quarter, most banks will almost certainly show a significant loss, but many of them will face the threat of ruin.
Ekaterina Trofimova, a bank analyst, Standard & Poor's:
- You can expect that in the second half of 2004 and next year in the banking system will remain some uncertainty and indecision. But it should not reverse the development of the sector as a whole, and should not prevent further enhance the creditworthiness of Russian banks. Problems associated with the ambitious program of reforming the banking sector, with many initiatives regulators, creates additional uncertainty in the market. The events of this summer showed how easy the task of reorganizing the CBR and the banking sector while maintaining the confidence of depositors. Virtually all of the 1184 banks that are licensed to care for private individuals, have expressed their desire to participate in the scheme and is now checked by the Central Bank. CBR weekly publishes first list of banks that have successfully tested and accepted into the system. Such «portion» Publication lists can cause a new burst of nervousness in the market.
GG Melikyan, the head of the Inspectorate of credit institutions, deputy chairman of Bank of Russia:
- There is no banking crisis was not and will not be!
Interview prepared by Sergei Khoroshev
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