Thursday, March 19, 2009

Passions around Fed solutions


Is well known that one of the most important forex market drivers are diferentsialy in the rates of various currencies. It often works with the old market rules - the currency is already rising in anticipation of the forthcoming decision on rates, if the expected increase its rates, and vice versa - the exchange rate decreases in the case of expectations "pigeon" the central bank decision.

Note that within three weeks of the year and especially last week, the dollar has received substantial support not only from the positive macroeconomic indicators of sustainable growth in the first world economy, but also from comments made by members of the federal government, strongly alluding to the accelerated rate of increase rates in response of inflationary concern. The most recent such statements were a statement by Mrs. Susan bis representative Fed, suggested that there was a recent jump in inflation to the time in the future to create a moderate price pressures, which in turn will raise rates in the previous pace.
A chapter FRB Richmond Jeffrey Leyker stated it baldly, that the federal government monetary policy could curb inflation, even in spite of the drop in world markets the dollar. As a result, the topic of structural imbalances in the U.S. economy in recent weeks as to obscure, and has lost its relevance, and focus on the market tend to matters of inflationary expectations. That is why the weak data on consumer prices were the first wake-up call to the strategic currency market players. Another is a powerful catalyst for a fixed dollar profit "bulls" were Friday dismal data on an index of consumer confidence, market participants before the University of Michigan, which fell from 97.1 a month earlier item to 95.8 points. According to most predictions of market experts, is expected to increase this figure to 98 points.

Note that the release was issued on Friday against the backdrop of the major currencies is extremely important technical levels, which require at least a significant correction. This is a very typical statement from one of technical experts otkommentirovavshih Friday the situation: "Mark 1.2930, this kind of checkpoint, and many of those asked to record their achievements." As usual in such cases, it is by the way, was published on the Internet version of the magazine BusinessWeek, which was the article that that Fed chairman Alan Greenspan to strengthen the pace of increasing the rates that raised further boost short-term sales at the market Friday evening. If you try to separate the seeds from the darnel, you can gently suggest Friday that the growth of the euro against the dollar should be considered only as a long overdue correction, and no more. In doing so, the magnitude of this correction navryadli reaches New levels. So, gentlemen traders, be careful, do not miss your chance.



Financial Analyst
Rinat Mescherov

No comments: