In place of hurricane Charley, Hurricane Ivan hit the Caribbean islands and threatens to spill over to the state of Florida. Thus, triggering the flight of Americans from the state. The U.S. government announced the evacuation of people from Florida, the fact that Hurricane Ivan is projected professionals, has more power than the previous one - Hurricane Charley.
Like the flight of the American population from their American homes, the next question the Great Guru - the head of the Fed U.S. A. Greenspan, caused the flight of investors from the U.S. dollar. Course dollar fell to the euro at 300 points over three days last week could be reasonable to call last week, Alan Greenspan.
Beginning the week after Labor Day weekend in the U.S., on Tuesday 8 September, the market is quite nervous environment there. Nervousness has been associated with the expectations of investors, the answer to some questions that they want to hear from the heads of the Fed.
What are the prospects for increasing the rates at the Fed meeting on September 21 and in this regard will be taken as data to reduce the number of unemployment benefits? Many analysts believed that this statement will be the same with a neutral bias to the upside as the previous one. But Alan Greenspan, in his report focuses on issues of concern. Two patients for the U.S. economy the issue becomes the subject of his report: the growth of budget deficits and the problem and its impact on the economy of rising prices in the oil market. He noted that the economy was in the late spring "weak", since the growth in early 2004 and in the second half of 2003. Slowed growth in consumer spending, job growth and themes have become more moderate, after rapid growth earlier in the year. Reducing the rate of growth of the economy, Alan Greenspan associates with an increase in energy prices, so the matter was given close attention in the report chapters Fed. The movement in oil prices has become an important factor of influence on the general background of inflation, when in the 2 quarter of a sharp rise in gasoline, a secondary product of the oil caused a decrease in demand and the accompanying increase in stocks for this product could reduce the strain on the gasoline market. In the 3 quarter of a direct correlation between the dynamics of oil prices and movements in the price of heating fuel and gasoline will be more distinct.
The most ridiculous of the problem of rising oil prices, is that this problem created by the U.S., after the troops in Iraq. Once this has been forgotten by world public opinion now, but one of the underlying causes, in addition to "formal" democracy and the installation of two seeking nuclear weapons, was the reduction in oil prices, the level of which $ 30 a barrel seemed disastrous. But everything turned out as it was the Soviet, in the spirit of socialism: Sami also create difficulties, it is their courage to overcome. Democracy in Iraq is not in the nuclear weapons (as well as chemical and biological) is not found, but the price of oil got beat all the records the last 20 years - in late summer has been tested by mark - $ 50 per barrel.
The intrigue surrounding the second issue - the budget deficit, based on the fact that this issue became the main asset in the election battle between Republicans and Democrats - the current president of J. Bush and the applicant for this post by D. Curry. Democrats believe that the record deficit, the fault current administration, coupled with policy failures that led to an increase in the deficit due to rising oil prices, the Bush administration is aimed at reducing taxes.
In 2004, the American budget deficit was a record and totaled $ 422 billion Meaning it has increased since the beginning of September 2003 - the beginning of the financial year to 47 billion dollars.
Let's look at step by step, how events unfolded this week at Forex.
The start of the week - the market in the absence of U.S. financial markets on Monday, slightly drifting towards the euro. On the positive data for Europe: According to Eurostat - the euro area GDP grew by 0.5% on the basis of 2 quarters, about the same period in 1 quarter. Compared with the 2 quarter of 2003, GDP growth was 2.0% for the EU. The volume of production in Germany rose in July at +1.6% compared to June and two times higher than projections. According to the Reytar the highest rate in the last 9 months.
On Tuesday, U.S. investors are encouraged by the Friday data on the labor market in the U.S., demonstrated reduction in the number of unemployed, have bychi traits in his character and cheerfully move downwards in the direction of the dollar. But they clearly do not suspect that the fun has only just begun and the main event ahead.
The first alarming sign became negative on two indices: The index of consumer sentiment Cambridge Consumer Index: -1 point in September to 62. The index of business activity in the technology sector, NY Fed Real Tech Pulse Index 34.5% in August against 40.5% in July. The dollar Bulls have an easy knock-down. Then the news of increasing rates of the Bank of Canada at 0.25% - and the referee begins counting the next knock-down. And the final chord of the day - an address by A. Greenspan ulcers with exposure of society - EVERYTHING! The battle ended with the notable advantage evrobykov. The price exceeds the psychological level of 1.22, the level of local resistance. While inheriting the day and the price returns to this level is already at top, after a report published on Thursday on Employment: Number of applications for unemployment benefits the week prior to September 4, -44,000 to 319 000, while the forecast for applications for unemployment benefits was -17 000 to 345000. But this level has become no longer overcome the level of support for the euro. And the last final touch on this week became the data on trade deficit, which confirmed fears A. Greenspan, and the Democrats together and remove all market players. According to the Department of Commerce's level of negative balance remains above $ 50 billion mark After this news the price tests the next level of psychological $ 1.23 per euro.
When considering a more promising picture of the market, looking at the daily schedule, we can note that, despite all the drama last week - the price is all the same remains in the equilibrium zone - within the limits of the lateral trend - currency corridor of limited levels of 1,24, and 1950. So the chances of the movement of currencies up or down are equal. By then it is worth remembering that on 21 September and 10 November, the Fed meeting at which level will be considered in the refinancing rate. According to many analysts, the rate will be increased as a result of these meetings up to 2% per annum.
For more information and, importantly, specific recommendations for the Forex market, as well as the stock markets of USA and Russia, you can receive a daily basis by visiting our website. You can also see the impact of our projections and specific recommendations, go to the page by clicking "Impact." All this is offered in the public domain, free of charge.
Like the flight of the American population from their American homes, the next question the Great Guru - the head of the Fed U.S. A. Greenspan, caused the flight of investors from the U.S. dollar. Course dollar fell to the euro at 300 points over three days last week could be reasonable to call last week, Alan Greenspan.
Beginning the week after Labor Day weekend in the U.S., on Tuesday 8 September, the market is quite nervous environment there. Nervousness has been associated with the expectations of investors, the answer to some questions that they want to hear from the heads of the Fed.
What are the prospects for increasing the rates at the Fed meeting on September 21 and in this regard will be taken as data to reduce the number of unemployment benefits? Many analysts believed that this statement will be the same with a neutral bias to the upside as the previous one. But Alan Greenspan, in his report focuses on issues of concern. Two patients for the U.S. economy the issue becomes the subject of his report: the growth of budget deficits and the problem and its impact on the economy of rising prices in the oil market. He noted that the economy was in the late spring "weak", since the growth in early 2004 and in the second half of 2003. Slowed growth in consumer spending, job growth and themes have become more moderate, after rapid growth earlier in the year. Reducing the rate of growth of the economy, Alan Greenspan associates with an increase in energy prices, so the matter was given close attention in the report chapters Fed. The movement in oil prices has become an important factor of influence on the general background of inflation, when in the 2 quarter of a sharp rise in gasoline, a secondary product of the oil caused a decrease in demand and the accompanying increase in stocks for this product could reduce the strain on the gasoline market. In the 3 quarter of a direct correlation between the dynamics of oil prices and movements in the price of heating fuel and gasoline will be more distinct.
The most ridiculous of the problem of rising oil prices, is that this problem created by the U.S., after the troops in Iraq. Once this has been forgotten by world public opinion now, but one of the underlying causes, in addition to "formal" democracy and the installation of two seeking nuclear weapons, was the reduction in oil prices, the level of which $ 30 a barrel seemed disastrous. But everything turned out as it was the Soviet, in the spirit of socialism: Sami also create difficulties, it is their courage to overcome. Democracy in Iraq is not in the nuclear weapons (as well as chemical and biological) is not found, but the price of oil got beat all the records the last 20 years - in late summer has been tested by mark - $ 50 per barrel.
The intrigue surrounding the second issue - the budget deficit, based on the fact that this issue became the main asset in the election battle between Republicans and Democrats - the current president of J. Bush and the applicant for this post by D. Curry. Democrats believe that the record deficit, the fault current administration, coupled with policy failures that led to an increase in the deficit due to rising oil prices, the Bush administration is aimed at reducing taxes.
In 2004, the American budget deficit was a record and totaled $ 422 billion Meaning it has increased since the beginning of September 2003 - the beginning of the financial year to 47 billion dollars.
Let's look at step by step, how events unfolded this week at Forex.
The start of the week - the market in the absence of U.S. financial markets on Monday, slightly drifting towards the euro. On the positive data for Europe: According to Eurostat - the euro area GDP grew by 0.5% on the basis of 2 quarters, about the same period in 1 quarter. Compared with the 2 quarter of 2003, GDP growth was 2.0% for the EU. The volume of production in Germany rose in July at +1.6% compared to June and two times higher than projections. According to the Reytar the highest rate in the last 9 months.
On Tuesday, U.S. investors are encouraged by the Friday data on the labor market in the U.S., demonstrated reduction in the number of unemployed, have bychi traits in his character and cheerfully move downwards in the direction of the dollar. But they clearly do not suspect that the fun has only just begun and the main event ahead.
The first alarming sign became negative on two indices: The index of consumer sentiment Cambridge Consumer Index: -1 point in September to 62. The index of business activity in the technology sector, NY Fed Real Tech Pulse Index 34.5% in August against 40.5% in July. The dollar Bulls have an easy knock-down. Then the news of increasing rates of the Bank of Canada at 0.25% - and the referee begins counting the next knock-down. And the final chord of the day - an address by A. Greenspan ulcers with exposure of society - EVERYTHING! The battle ended with the notable advantage evrobykov. The price exceeds the psychological level of 1.22, the level of local resistance. While inheriting the day and the price returns to this level is already at top, after a report published on Thursday on Employment: Number of applications for unemployment benefits the week prior to September 4, -44,000 to 319 000, while the forecast for applications for unemployment benefits was -17 000 to 345000. But this level has become no longer overcome the level of support for the euro. And the last final touch on this week became the data on trade deficit, which confirmed fears A. Greenspan, and the Democrats together and remove all market players. According to the Department of Commerce's level of negative balance remains above $ 50 billion mark After this news the price tests the next level of psychological $ 1.23 per euro.When considering a more promising picture of the market, looking at the daily schedule, we can note that, despite all the drama last week - the price is all the same remains in the equilibrium zone - within the limits of the lateral trend - currency corridor of limited levels of 1,24, and 1950. So the chances of the movement of currencies up or down are equal. By then it is worth remembering that on 21 September and 10 November, the Fed meeting at which level will be considered in the refinancing rate. According to many analysts, the rate will be increased as a result of these meetings up to 2% per annum.
For more information and, importantly, specific recommendations for the Forex market, as well as the stock markets of USA and Russia, you can receive a daily basis by visiting our website. You can also see the impact of our projections and specific recommendations, go to the page by clicking "Impact." All this is offered in the public domain, free of charge.Financial Analyst
Rinat Mescherov.
Rinat Mescherov.
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