Question: Please describe briefly what you do, how long do you sell in the markets, etc., to give readers some information about yourself.
Joe: It seems that one way or another, I was involved in the trade all his life. In 1967 I graduated from technical college and began seriously to trade. In those days, I had to deal with low-capitalized, small emissions, where you lose only 15-25% at the spread. We have used these "shares", which used the credit union company where I worked. In those days, I was also involved in trading options. This is before they were made to the stock exchange listing, as it is today. I was involved in trading commodity contracts in 1980. I love the product markets. If you can develop strategies to effectively deal with risk, the benefits of this market far outweigh the other markets. Circa 1986. I began to speak in front of an audience, first with Jake Bernstein, at the international symposium on the futures. That was when I started public speaking. I have spoken around the world, in major centers in Asia, Europe and the Middle East. Only in 1996. I spoke in 22 different countries. It was too, but I could not refuse the opportunity to address such areas as Tallinn, St. Petersburg and Mumbai. I met fantastic people around the world.
Question: Tell us a little about your shopping style?
Joe: Sales techniques that I use, are substantially different from the use by others. I mix and retarded leading indicators and the interaction with the prices based on this approach. I use some sort of retarded indicators moving averages and MACD and Stochastics combinations to determine the trend. Once I'm in a trend, I use Fibonacci analysis as an advance indicator of that position within that trend. The last step is to capture the logical targets for profit. The goals of the profit is calculated using several methods Fibonacci. This approach is my own, because I spent a bunch of time developing it. I use Displaced Moving averages, for example, in a very specific and unique manner. I think that I really did their homework in this one, having spent nearly 3 years for research in the early 80th. In the middle of the 80th, I spent the other three years, identifying the most effective way to use Fibonacci techniques. I think I did a good job separating the best from good or average. Sometimes it's not a question of developing a new indicator, and the use of existing indicators in a more efficient manner.
Question: Can you give an example of what you mean by use of existing indicators more effectively?
Joe: OK, let's take Moving averages. Rather than use the standard Moving averages, I use Displaced Moving averages. In fact, in the middle of the 80th, when I started talking about it, there was no software for this, as far as I know, other than our own, which moves the sliding average. Prior to this, some people have used the opening price, instead of closing to determine the moving averages, so they can know how important it was a moving average before the end of the day. When you move the sliding average, say for five days, you know how important moving average must be to the exodus of five days. No longer was another reason to use the opening. Unfortunately, many of the graphics programs that move Moving averages today, did not reveal the price activity of the last days. This is an example of commercial software created by programmers, rather than traders.
Question: What are your goals for profit, and if you are long or short term?
Joe: My goals for profits are a function of the time period in which I sell. Weekly goals are much greater than the goal, calculated on the five-graphics. Methods of calculation, however, the same. If there is one thing that can make a trader, to significantly improve its ratio of wins to lose it - the constant use of the logical targets for earnings in its terms of trade.
Question: What about the losses, what is your limit risk?
Joe: I have a very low risk. I once heard a trade futures, described as the manipulation of dynamite. This is a good definition. What you should get used to use - it is managed by greed, so that you can realize consistent profits! For various reasons, most people can not do this.
Question: What are the steps you made to control the damage?
Joe: Fibonacci analysis, along with my indicators say the trend is clear to me if I'm wrong, and should withdraw from the trade. When this happens, I go out of the market or looking for opportunities to exit.
Question: Please describe your best and worst deals that you did.
Joe: "Hot" uninformed advice - this is the worst. Often they come from organizations that are trying to get a commission, or have positions in the instrument, which gives recommendations. Trading situations that match my criteria are the best and most lucrative deals.
Q: What makes you competitive in the market?
Joe: experience, management approach, and excellent shopping.
Question: Everyone is familiar with the old principle of "cut their losses and let your profits grow." Many traders have difficulty with the decision of when to fix their profits, sometimes allowing a profit turn into a loss. What do you use to take the decision to close the position?
Joe: I do not do so. My profit grows only up to the pre-calculated goal. This does not mean that I will never have the remote targets, it all depends on my time period in which I sell. I do not cut their losses - this makes the market, breaking the pre-calculated level or indicator. I get out of the market, just as I went to the streets if I was driving a truck. The whole issue is the availability of criteria to see a truck, then the experience and discipline to act accordingly.
Q: What advice can you give those who are just beginning to sell? What can be done to reduce the time and reduce the losses that would normally be required during the training?
Joe: People trying to get profit in this game, faced with many challenges. I would recommend that they are looking for traders who know what they are doing and have the ability to explain what they are doing to others. There is a real educational problem.
Question: If you were to find the perfect deal, how would it look? Please describe the need to build an ideal bargain?
Joe: I will answer this question, common words, as most are not familiar with certain aspects and nuances of my approach to trade. Transactions must meet the following criteria: I use this approach continuously for many years. I buy in the fall, with an upward trend and sell on the reconstruction in the descending trend. Retarded indicators allow me to determine trend. Of leading indicators, especially the Fibonacci analysis, allow me to "safely" take place within that trend. I always use the logical targets for profits and I have the oscillators, which are used as filters to let me join in the direction of the trend when it is too dangerous. I also have about 8 trading patterns or conditions, which act to give me the direction of the market. If they are in conflict with the trend, I always follow what I say model.
Question: In what markets do you sell?
Joe: In markets that are moving and are consistent with a situation where you can make money. In 1995, one of the biggest deals was my deal in the market soybeans. I'm not sold on the market of products for more than ten years. But market conditions have been perfect, and I played on it.
Question: That would be acceptable to the mutual funds?
Joe: Non response - yes, but may have some difficulties. Let's say you're trading in foreign treasury bills. Fund managers may be involved with some hedging, which may affect the price in a way that the analysis of the Fibonacci is not so accurate as he would have been if you had a net trade. In general, however, Fibonacci analysis works very well in mutual funds.
Q: Your system is mechanical?
Joe: No, but the secret of creating a good subjective system is to make it as far as possible not subjective.
Question: How do you calculate the target for profits?
Joe: I use one or both of the two methods. The first is a Fibonacci analysis. I also use predictive oscillator.
Question: What percentage of revenue and the percentage losses are common for your transactions?
Joe: It depends on the variability and the time period used by the market.
Question: What are displaced Moving averages are you using? For which markets?
Joe: I use the same displaced Moving averages for all markets. One way to say that something works well is to determine whether it is for different markets. Otherwise you find yourself in a "quagmire" that buries so many new technical traders. I use 3x3, 7x5, 25x5 Displaced Moving averages. They all - Simple Moving averages of closing prices. The second parameter - this is the deflection.
Question: The Moving averages are acceptable for long-term traders (daily schedules)?
Joe: Yes, actually I use Displaced Moving averages for daily, weekly and monthly schedules. I use a combination of MACD and Stochastics for intra-day as well as for daily, weekly and monthly schedules.
Question: Do you sell other people's money?
Joe: No, I am not interested.
Question: What was the worst monthly decline, which you have experienced in the past year?
Joe: This is sensitive information, but it was not something serious.
Question: Can you tell us about your ratio of wins and losses?
Joe: For some reason I have reserved to indicate the exact figure, but I will say that the consistent and proper adherence to this methodology may provide from 70 to 90% of the winning transaction. Some of the reasons so that you can get such a good relationship, refer to the criteria for entry, as well as to the purposes of profit. For example, the psychological level of the stop violated. Rather than withdraw from the market and remain a loser, you can build on the Fibonacci series of recovery and return to a much more favorable position. This small loss could turn into a small profit or break-even deal.
Question: Your methods are published somewhere?
Joe: I teach courses on trade. There, any student can get any interesting information. Hopefully, we will publish a book later this year.
More will be found some of the issues that students are often asked Joe during his lectures.
Q: How sensitive analysis Fibbonachi for precise choice of top or reason? You can use it to trade options, or they are too volatile?
Joe: Fibonacci analysis is the most accurate way to predict support and resistance, which only exists. However, you should use Fibonacci analysis in the right context. In my opinion, it is essential for trading options, because you have to deal with the additional expansion and decline. The point is that if you do not know in advance where support and resistance will show itself, it is nothing good from the sale of options does not work.
Question: Can you explain more in detail, as determined by the importance of the displaced moving average?
Joe: Moved Moving Averages - Moving Average is, advanced in time. Imagine that you have a 7-day simple Moving Average, now move it to the right for 5 days. As a result, you get a 7X5 Displaced Moving Average. The significance of the displaced moving average for today is equal to the value of the non-moving average 5 days ago.
Question: How about having to enter the market, which is in a strong trend without a correction to levels Fibbonachi, like the current market the Swiss franc (question asked on 19 February 2004).
Joe: One of the biggest advantages of the methods that I use, is their ability to introduce you to the strong motion with relative safety. You achieve this by reducing your temporary format, creating a series of supports Fibonacci and buying above the crossing. Your stop-order is lower than the lowest point of intersection.
Q: Your analysis seems to be concentrated at one price. You use Fibbonachi on the time axis?
Joe: I do not use Fibonacci analysis on the time axis, even though I did more research on this topic. Yes, there is a context in which to apply Fibonacci analysis. Outside of this context you are embarking on thin ice.
Question: Do you have any methods by which you are trying to predict the price activity of the next day, according to today's price activity?
Joe: Not just from today's price activity. I believe that the study of larger sizes should be temporary for maximum security, so I usually use the price activity of more than one day to determine the goal. Around 1982. I thought an interesting indicator, called predictive oscillator (Oscillator Predictor). This indicator is look back at 6 months, using detrendovy oscillator, to predict levels of perekuplennosti and pereprodannosti for future action.
Question: How about adding to losing positions to averaged?
Joe: Some of the traders, who are worth roughly a billion dollars, once said that he was not sufficiently rich to averaged?
Question: Could you say a word or two about managing money?
Joe: Managing money - this is a big issue on which I spend about three hours in the course of trade. This is much more difficult than the risk of two or five percent of your trading capital in one transaction. You must understand the theory of the collapse - this is the theory of games for money, the periods of delusion and much more. This information is difficult to find. For many years I taught a rule of three periods. This implies that you have a good trading methodology. If you are not in profit after three periods, then you get out of the trade. This three-day schedule for the day, fifteen minutes to five-schedule, etc. One last comment regarding your question. If you learn how to buy and sell in the right places, it will be great competition for the execution of warrants in those areas. In this sense, things actually become more difficult when you become better.
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