The Theory Of "Strong Trend"

The strength, as well as energy, without the support fades, the one who will be able to use the potential force, will come in inexhaustible delight.

Alexander M. Mazurkevich

In this research I would like to consider another very interesting phenomenon in the market - volotilnost. Day Trader, and just a short-term traders in the period of time are always looking for volotilnye markets, ie markets in which you can earn, because when changing volatility traders suffered losses and have large profits. Some professionals feel the impending volotilnost, and even predict this phenomenon is very, very difficult. Rather, virtually impossible.
Assuming a normal situation, the trader or merchant, trading in their own homes via the internet, put up a few orders for the purchase of any currency, for a dollar. The likelihood that he catch a strong trend, and instantly removes the profit would be around 0.2. This is even without taking into account the fact that the market can teach him to "surprise" and turn and then a trader would be in a situation of loss, which in turn can also significantly affect its deposit. We can assume that every trader is looking for reasonable times to enter, which would be most similar to volotilnoe movement. But the course does stop, or unfolding, and that then happens - he loses money, and loss of money, as you know, the worst that could be in the trade, so as to lose the opportunity - it does not lose anything to lose money - a lot to lose, continue to , focusing on a more powerful argument - and lose time, lose all. Based on this we will strive for the effectiveness of our trade with volotilnom moving through the above information.
What is volotilnost for trade and how we seek it, as we found it at work in the market, as with the use of our knowledge into practice and get a positive result. All these issues are the object of our scientific article, no, we will not refer to some statements and theories of other successful traders, we would like to share with you exclusive information, we investigated if the work in the financial markets and to tell you about new methods of conducting trade in the market and applying these methods to enter the market.
Volotilnosti The phenomenon can be interpreted in different ways. Each trader can express their views on this phenomenon and to what extent he is right, would say only his bank account, which is replenished when the work or reduced accordingly. This is due to the fact that every person has its own point of view, and each trader, speculator or just a trader, kidaya to look at the market, sees it quite differently than its competitors. We will try to teach you to see the market correct and in accordance with this orientation in the trade. The task is not simple, because this will work, and only persistent traders cope with a task and be able to obtain significant results.
It is believed that financial markets are highly liquid and volatile, which in turn significantly affect the risk of financial products on the market. Of course, introducing the risk of a transaction, minimizing their losses through the knowledge acquired during work in the market, you can receive a stable profit, even with such highly liquid and volatile markets like Forex, Stocks, Futures and Options. While equity markets take much volotilnymi at a constant interval of time does not occur. Sometimes happens that this very volotilnosti have to wait for a few days, but all the same, it is effective, I suggest always to take into account volotilnosti market force at work on it.
The very phenomenon of volatility can be interpreted as the ability to price volatility in the market, that is not a quiet equilibrium, namely, a strong movement for a given direction. Volotilnost can be seen in several directions:

1. Global volotilnost on the market. See Figure 1

Figure 1 The study of global volotilnosti market Forex (EURUSD), a one-week period, 2001-2002.

As seen in Figure 1, for the analysis of the global market volotilnost can bind to the indicator as a volume that is the number of transactions in a given period of time. As we explore the global volotilnost can be assumed that the period of the study will focus on longer periods of time: weeks, months or even years, changes in price.

2. Reduced volotilnost, volotilnost, which force may be much weaker global volotilnosti, as actually happens volotilnosti global expansion force at a smaller time intervals, which, in turn, and leads directly to reduce the volume of transactions in this period of time. For a volotilnosti period of time may be during the day, a few days but not more than a week. See Figure 2:

Figure 2. Reduced volotilnost market EURUSD daily time interval.

Pay attention to the area between the two vertical lines, this area presents to us a higher interest, as well as the volume of transactions during this period was more than the previous one. Therefore, to see how to move the price of currency. And make appropriate conclusions. Below we will talk in detail about this, but right now I would like to make you reflect on this phenomenon, perhaps you have some interesting thoughts, but please let us know about them, and we will hold a series of studies in this direction to see the truth of your speech and suggestions.

3. And last, the most interesting variety volotilnosti: stable volotilnost. You may certainly ask, but why is stable, not weak or light or anything else indicating that the force volotilnosti even more diminished. That's right, the issue is very topical and has a strong basis to ask him. The point is that a stable volotilnost derived from the fact that usually at very short intervals of time by force of transactions is low, all right, but the name we picked up not by the strength volotilnosti, but by way of its perception in the market. That is, given two versions proposed by us earlier, we can say that each of these two types of volotilnostey has a strong energy for the movement of the market respectively. See Figure 1 for a period of weeks and months. By all accounts it was the largest volotilnost as the number of transactions was the highest according to the period and at the same time as the impact each of the transaction at a price we do not take into account, as if the candle is ultimately for the week of the session closed with the minimum bid, then all operations led to a reduction in prices, although volotilnost was strong. At this period, always have to take into account such factors as the fact that price is not just slowed down a few more days varied within certain limits is rising then descending, which, in turn, led of course to commit transactions, and improve volotilnosti during this period. The same can be said about the reduction volotilnost only during the work will be much smaller than the global, but the principle is the same. Here is a stable volotilnost is quite different volotilnost, namely the principal purpose and significance. Here, emphasis is placed not directly on the period and number of transactions, although this is an important factor, but on such a factor, as in "stable volotilnosti" analysis of research aims to study less than day-time, put on an hour for four. See Figure 3:

Figure 3 Investigation of stable volotilnosti grafikEURUSD hour interval.

The above Figure 3 shows how the price varies according to the greatness of force volotilnosti. But now we wish to focus your attention, as shown Figure 3, focuses on one of the shorter time periods, but no more than hour of the day. This is the secret, the fact is that at these intervals, ie intervals of time, volotilnost very often will be directed to the immediate stability of descending or ascending the short, intermediate trend time trend. According to this we gave the name of a stable volotilnosti, as well as with increasing volume and identify a clear direction of trends can be argued that the rising volume will lead to a stable volotilnosti by price change tool in one of directions. That is, increase or decrease. See Figure 3.

We developed the theory of the strong trend to be a very good tool when working in the market, it must be fully used in addition to all the theories described earlier, because by itself in isolation, it is not a lot of chances to claim uniqueness. As argued earlier, the thrust of this theory focuses directly on the study volotilnosti and your behavior when you use any methods of trade at the entrance to the market. Consider Figure 4:

Figure 4 volotilnosti study on the impact of trade EURUSD

According to figure 4, set out our theory of "strong volotilnosti:
1. If you are in the market, and in particular the decision to commit the transaction after you have examined all the factors influencing the market, pay attention to the volume of transactions before.
2. I propose to move to a short period of time in order to determine the level of volotilnosti, ie the volume of transactions in the market before you are about to enter, also return for a few days ago and pronablyudayte volotilnost what the market was before, so history usually repeats itself.
4. Once you have submitted to the picture, try to make the average value of transactions per month, with time, leave as a time or four hours, observed that the interval of a high probability of a qualitative analysis of the saturation of transactions. See Figure 5:

Figure 5 Determination of the average volume of transactions to detect subsequent growth, schedule EURUSD time interval.

Singling out the average value of transactions can be pronablyudat that once, in most cases, the number of transactions to handle for the middle, it means that volotilnost aimed at trend will intensify. At least several hours. During this time, as seen from the figure there is an essential change in the price, which is just a matter of cut can spread your broker.

Given the theory of "strong trend" can protect themselves when entering the market or using a different methodology. Proposed to use this theory in combination with other theories of the entrance, because it is very difficult to increase the likelihood of success based solely on volotilnost market, because volotilnost very changeable and can be both at the hands of you, and against. Derivation of one, be more careful in the analysis of transactions.

And you good trend!

President and Managing the international hedge fund
AlMaz Hedge Fund Management
Alexander M. Mazurkevich