Friday, February 27, 2009

Butterfly Effect

When traders hear about the Elliott Wave, they are usually at the same time hear about Fibonacci relationships. Just the reverse is also true. When discussing the Fibonacci ratio, it is almost always in the context of Elliott waves, or measurement of some recovery. However, I would like to propose the use of Fibonacci ratios to any graphical model. In this article, will be presented a graphical model, which is seldom discussed among traders - Butterfly Gartli.

JM Gartli published the book "The profit on the stock exchange in 1935. In this book, he refers to the graphical model, which can be confused with the well-known Elliott Wave. There are similarities, but it is - not the same model. Where in the Elliott Wave uses the numerical designation for the pulse waves and letters to the rehabilitative model Gartli only uses the letter to the central or turning points in the model. This is just one of the differences that can be seen immediately, but there are many others. Therefore, traders who use Elliott waves, may be somewhat confused model Butterflies Gartli. Therefore, it may be useful to take the material presented here, such as it is, rather than to compare two models with each other. There are several varieties of butterflies models, but this article will discuss only one variety.

In the above diagram, we see a common model of butterflies Gartli. At first glance it may look very strange. However, to begin I will explain the model and then show a graphic example. Black lines in the model of butterflies represent the price movement of market instruments. Thus, in Figure 1, we can see that the price movement occurs from point X to point A. Then, we have a downward fluctuation to a point B, which is not beyond the point X. This is accompanied by a movement to point C, which does not exceed the point A. Finally, the butterfly ends of oscillation in descending point C to point D. For purposes of discussion, this type of butterflies Gartli, consistent price fluctuations from point A to point D is within the price range determined by the points X and A.

The blue line on the chart represent the typical ratio of Fibonacci price fluctuations within the model of a butterfly. Price fluctuations from point A to point B will typically recover from 0.5 to 0,618 price range, some movement from point X to point A. Price recovery occurs from point B and ending at point C will usually end in the price range between 0.618 and 0.786 from price fluctuations from point A to point B. The closing price movement that occurs from point C to point D typically has a ratio of 1.272 - 1.618 prior to the fluctuations between points B and C. Price fluctuations from point C to point D may also have a Fibonacci ratio of 0.786 to 0.618 to the price movement from point X to point A.

Closing balance, which is usually referred to, is the equality of price movement from point C to point D, and the price movement from point A to point B. I also include the Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 for this part of the structure of a butterfly. It should also look for price fluctuations, which occurs from point C and ends at point D, that it was equal to 1.00 - 1.618 of the length variations from point A to point B.

If you have closely followed the only explanations that the model Butterflies Gartli, then you may wonder how the model should strictly follow the Fibonacci ratio. In my opinion, the Fibonacci ratio should be performed, at least for two consecutive price fluctuations. This will help us to mathematically confirm what we see in the chart. Also, the Fibonacci ratio to the last price fluctuations from point C to point D should be more important than other Fibonacci ratios in the model of butterflies Gartli.

In the above graph, we have three blue horizontal lines, which represent the levels of recovery 0.50, 0.618 and 0.786 from the full price fluctuations from point X to point A. Remember that we use the ratio of 0.50 and 0.618 for the movement from point A to point B. Also, we use levels of 0.618 and 0.786 for the variations from point C to point D. Thus, we measure two different price fluctuations. Note that the fluctuation from point A to point B does not come very close to the rehabilitation of 0.50 - 0.618. This differs from the price movement between point C and point D, which fits very closely to the goal of 0,618.

At this schedule, we are restoring the levels of 0.786 and 0.618 of price fluctuations from point A to point B. Please note that we have a price movement that is able to exceed this level and close above 0,786. However, the market is unable to support the crossing of this level, and the next day rose below it.

On to the schedule, we can see the Fibonacci projection at 1.272 and 1.618, which correspond to the price fluctuations from point B to point C. Notice how the price movement almost stops at the level of 1.618.

The latter characteristic of Fibonacci, which we consider as the price movement from point A to point B refers to the price movement from point C to point D. The graph above, we measured the movement from point A to point B, and designed the levels of 1.00 and 1.618 of the value of the point C. Here we can see that the price movement has made a definite shift between these two levels designed.

Final design
The last step, which is desirable to perform in any Fibonacci analysis is comparing the different reconstruction and projections of different price variations in the analyzed structure. This gives confidence in the given analysis. In the above graph, we have three projection for a point D, which we considered above. We have kept the same color scheme as in previous examples, so that could match the red, green and blue lines to the previous schedules. I believe that the importance of the schedule is that the whole group of relations is so close to each other that you can distinguish them only on the notes. This means that all of the Fibonacci ratio, which proektiruyutsyaiz different areas of the structure, suited to the same level where we can expect the formation of point D. Point D is thus the level where we could enter the market with the opening of bull position.

Although the examples that were cited above, refer to the bull's model Butterflies Gartli, the exact opposite is true for option bear model. All that need be done - is turn on the first example of Figure 1 to obtain disservice model shown above.

Butterfly Gartli is another way in which we can use the Fibonacci ratios to measure the visual model.

In subsequent issues of the journal will be considered other types of models Butterflies Gartli ..





www.optionetics.com

No comments: