"In experiments conducted on a set of exchange of goods during 1972, writes in July 1974, Todd Lofton in his observations," shows that short-term movements in prices occur with some regularity on the phases of the moon. In fact, stock products, selected for observation - silver, wheat, cocoa and sugar - a strange tendency to shape the market, after the full moon rising and falling market after the new moon. "
This last assertion - "the market after the full moon rising and falling market after the new moon" intrigued me. I wonder whether there is merit in this approval and all this is just not worth attention, nonsense. Moreover, one of my clients had a few farms and trading fixed-term contracts for the supply of cattle, even fourteen years ago, used a lunar phase on their schedules. And it was quite a professional trader, who had successfully traded for a long time and is serious about trade.
In order to conduct a study, I established a tool, which could work. Thus, the lunar phase cycles are added to the tool in Ensign Windows. Parameter lunar phase simply stated in the window to moon phase displayed in the chart.
The first two options "Show effects" can be used to show the cyclic arc of the graph. But in this study, we would be interested in only the display of lunar phases on schedule. He was chosen a dark gray color to display the new moon. Full moon will always be displayed in white. For research not selected a perfect example, but was simply taken the current daily schedule of cattle, as my client has worked with that commodity.
Below is a LC1G-graph showing the lunar phases. (Some lunar phases fall on weekends and holidays. In this case, a lunar symbol is shown on the nearest trading date.)
The market was in a strong upward trend, starting with its minimum at around 70.050 $ 13 September 2000. When it was full moon! This minimum is not shown in this example.
Let's look at the timetable for the correlation of market movement with moon phases in the week after the new moon and full moon. We will take into account the net change of the lunar day of the first 6 trading days. In the theory of "market after the full moon rising and falling market after the new moon." Let's see how well this schedule corresponds to the theory.
Full moon (look forward to enhancing the market)
- 10 November 2000. Excellent - this day was the turn of the market at least, accompanied by an increase in $ 1,325.
- 11 December 2000. Wonderful - this time accompanied by an increase at $ 1.15 for 6 days.
- January 9, 2001. Excellent - this day was the turn of the market at a minimum, and the subsequent huge 6-day increase of $ 4,025.
New moon (look forward to the fall of the market)
- 27 October 2000. Poor - Not too bad to raise a strong 3rd November at $ 0.825.
- 24 November 2000. Excellent - a rare correction of the strong upward trend. Downward movement was at $ 1.225.
- 26 December 2000. Okay - the motion down for 6 days at $ 0,425. However, the best movement downwards followed later.
- 23 January 2001. Excellent - 6-day traffic was down $ 2.45. Closing January 30 (not shown) was at around $ 77,625.
Conclusion:
You can quite appreciate the theory, given the correlation with current LC1G-schedule. Turning points in the minima of the full moon day on 10 November and 9 January match. Turning point for the maximum in the new moon on 24 November the same. Compliance with other lunar phases is also quite decent. And in addition, the annual minimum occurred on 13 September 2000. in full! Therefore, we can conclude that the rational core of the theory is, and the moon really affects human behavior.
Pay attention to the lunar phase. Material presented here was limited to an examination scheduling cattle for seven lunar phases. A comprehensive study should include an evaluation of a large number of graphs and a large number of lunar phases. We hope that this article will cause your interest in this aspect of market analysis. You can do your own research on the influence of lunar phases for a certain market-based instruments, and use its results in practical work in the market.
P.S. The last full moon was on May 5, 2004. On that day, said the dollar against major currencies turning minimums and the subsequent 6 days of trading the dollar rose against the yen by nearly 600 points! from 108.69 to 114.61 USD / JPY; against the pound on 290 points from 1.7902 to 1.7612 GBP / USD; against the euro for 352 points from 1.2158 to 1.1807 EUR / USD; against the Swiss franc to 278 points from 1.2749 to 1.3027 USD / CHF.
The next full moon - 03.06.2004g.
Howard Arington
www.ensignsoftware.com
www.ensignsoftware.com
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