Within-day fluctuations

Within days of the market to swing back and forth like a drunken man. This fluctuation most frustrating traders, forcing them to take a position on the less advantageous prices. But this intra-day fluctuation shows the basic procedure, which you can use to buy or sell at reducing to the maximum of the day.
The timing - it all when it comes to markets. Etoosobenno true with respect to intra-day price movement. Many traders ignore this fact and try to use the market as they wish. This approach provokes them to ignore the fluctuations and focus on the signals directly to individual price charts. This is a critical mistake, because everything is interconnected together in a common large-scale picture.
The vast majority of market-based instruments should be the direction of intra-day fluctuations. Of course, each market-based instruments will be relatively stronger or weaker than the overall market. This discrepancy creates a mechanism that allows us to buy or sell at market turns. For example, strong stocks tend to recoil to its minimum as well as intra-day fluctuation reaches its low point. Then, both up above, as buyers returned to the pressure on the market.

Futures on the index indicate intra-day fluctuation with high accuracy. But the interpretation of fluctuations is more complex than simply search for the ascending or descending trend. Futures Markets react to various forces, but few of them are stronger than the principle of price discovery and the range of the first hour.
The three levels identified by these values define test scenarios for the day trendline. In good days, using index futures breakthroughs first hour, and roll back to price discovery as a springboard for significant rally. But the interaction between price action and the three reference points can sometimes be complex and difficult to interpret.
One of the most common turn begins when the range of market-based instruments in breach of the first hour, varies within a few minutes and then falls back into its borders. This failure of the implementation of the model pushes traders to close positions and change direction. Originates a new intra-day fluctuation.

Good mood Stochastic indicator will allow traders to more easily visualize the intra-day fluctuations. But the interpretation is the main feature with this classic instrument. Do not assume that the spread is close only because the value of the indicator reached perekuplennosti or pereprodannosti. Finds support in the pricing model or wait for the indicator was accelerated in the opposite direction.
Most charts in different time formats, may reflect the conflicting information about the vibrations. Literate traders use these differences to their advantage, rather than remain in doubt. They wait for Stochastics to a larger and a smaller scale will be synchronously specify the maximum or minimum values and then move in the opposite direction. This is a strong signal that the market is going to fluctuations in the opposite direction.

Another way to manage the contradictory signals over possible long-term moving average cost. We recommend that you install Exponential Moving averages with a period of 200 bars and 50 bars in all the intra-day charts. These averages reflect the trend of development of new variations, when market-based instruments back to the very low levels.
Usually, the price bars on the same session will be to retreat back to the exponential moving average with a period of 50 bars, at the same time at another session reached its exponential moving average with a period of 200 bars. This convergence predicts strong turnaround, especially when combined with the convergence Stochastics. Add to this the successful testing of the opening price or the range of the first hour, and you get a very good opportunity for trade. These signals can be coordinated very effectively used to buy or sell at the best prices of the day.

Here is an example of how this can work. Purchase of shares "Talk America" can be implemented 12.09.03 within 7 cents from the day a minimum. After a sharp downward movement of the early morning has spread because market volatility has committed so-called "trip inside." Turn on V-shaped bases occurred just inside the main level and short-term recovery Fibonacci moving average.
Tilt the market at certain times during the day adds a final dimension to the intra-day fluctuations in mechanics. In most sessions, the market has developed from the opening kick in the first half hour of trade. The main strength or weakness of the movement, which is often followed by, dictate the nature and magnitude of price fluctuations throughout the day.
The market often shows a different turn in about 90 minutes until tender. This fluctuation can be quickly dissipated, or cause a stampede last hour in one direction or another.

www.hardrightedge.com

The bands of linear regression

Introduction
Indicator Strips linear regression arbitrarily smooths the price data is the regression result, if projected regression line, and then randomly creates band standard deviations above and below the regression line. First, data based on the selected price, smoothed, using the period and type of moving average. If you prefer not to use any smoothing, the chosen period 1. Then, the data obtained are used to form a regression line that ends in each bar, using the period of regression. Values in each bar may optionally be predicted value determined by the design of the regression line at X bar forward, where X is the projection period (if X = 0, then no prediction will not happen). Then, above and below the regression line can be held strip of standard deviations, based on a specified number of standard deviations and significance of standard deviation, calculated from data in the range of the period of regression.

In its most basic form, without smoothing (Moving Average of period 1) and without the forecast (the forecast period 0), the indicator provides a simple end point of linear regression line, which ensures the end of each bar with a period of regression. This alone provides a good replacement of the rolling average, and in fact identical to the type of moving average of least squares.

Period smoothing (MA), allows you to pre-smooth the data before performing any regression analysis or prediction. For predictive value of a linear regression line, ending at each point, and designed more for X number of bars, where X is the projection period. This is a designed value is then used as a value indicator for this bar.

The bands that performed, using the standard deviation, which varies in time. Standard deviations are calculated in the same way as an indicator for the "linear regression" (see number 23). The standard deviation factor of the options multiplied by the value of standard deviation to determine how far the band will be conducted from the main line.

Oscillator Linear regression is the number of standard deviations the current price of the line of linear regression. A value of 2 means that the price is currently located at 2 standard deviations above the linear regression (using a given period of regression, ending at the bar). Value - 1.5 means that the price is now at a 1.5 standard deviations below the regression line. This function is added as an additional option "Oscillator linear regression to indicator bands of linear regression. Recommended that the oscillator linear regression was built in a separate window below the price chart. Oscillator Linear regression shows how far the current price deviated from the regression trend line in units of standard deviation, or how far the price deviated from the basic trend established by regression analysis (using the term).

The above graph shows the daily candle "Intel Corporation" (INTC). Prognostic line linear regression (LRF) is depicted in black, the upper band of 2 standard deviations, shown in blue, and the lower band shows a red color.

Formula

Smoothed price = Moving Average (Price, Z), where Z - period moving average

(Note: If smoothing is not required (only the price), the period moving average should be set to 1. In this case, the smoothed price is the same as the price.)

The band regression = regression (smoothed price, X) + Slope * Y, where
Z - period moving average
X - the period of regression
Y - the forecast period (if not necessarily equal to 0)
Slope - slope of the regression line

The upper band = band regression + standard deviation (smoothed price, X) * N, where
N - standard deviation (s)
X - the period of regression

Lower band = band regression - standard deviation (smoothed price, X) * N, where
N - standard deviation (s)
X - the period of regression

Oscillator Linear Regression = (Price - Stripe regression / standard deviation (smoothed price, X), where X - the period of regression

The use of graphics programs

. Price - Price data used in calculating the (opening, closing ...).
. Type MA - type smoothing (moving average), which will be applied to regression (simple, exponential ...).
. Period MA - period smoothing (moving average), which is used to regression.
. The period of regression - number of bars that are used in calculating the regression line.
. The forecast period - the mean regression line may optionally be predictive of the future number of bars specified by user. If the prediction is 0, no prediction will not happen. If the forecast period greater than 0, the linear regression line is projected forward to determine the value of the regression for the bar.
. The band regression - Average strip is determined calculating the regression line, using the current bar and previous X-1 bars (X is a period of regression), and the design of the line next to the bar Y (Y is the forecast period), and then by the end point line as the values.
. The top band - band of the standard deviation, held above the regression line. Uses the number of standard deviations below. The standard deviation is calculated over the period of regression.
. Bottom line - the standard deviation band, held below the regression line. Uses the number of standard deviations below. The standard deviation is calculated over the period of regression.
. Standard Deviation (s) - How many standard deviations from the mean regression lines used for the upper and lower bands.
. Oscillator Linear Regression - Oscillator linear regression represents the number of standard deviations the current price of the line of linear regression.


Practical applications

To better understand the practical application of linear regression ?????, below the existing comments trederov who uses this tool in their daily practice.

Trader Stephen Kessler

I really like the bands of linear regression, because they are superimposed on the graph. I use the value of projection 0 (no prediction), the regression between 100 and MA between 1 (no pre-smoothing) at 1 -, 2 -, 3 - and 5-minute charts S & P, to display the likely levels of support and resistance, along with reference points, the usual recent maximum and minimum levels of recovery and Fibonacci. On the lateral market, as shown above, at 1-minute schedule can be very useful for the band, conducted by 2 standard deviations.

Trader Chad Payne

You can create a convenient indicator, which actually shows you how many standard deviations (from the linear regression line) are the current prices. This indicator will be positive when the price is above the regression line and negative when prices are lower. In the following chart shows the parameters set by the indicator and an example of this indicator, which was built in the form of the histogram below the price chart.
The indicator is installed without smoothing (the period of AI = 1), no forecast (the forecast period = 0), and the period of regression = 13.

Significance of -2.3 tells you that prices are currently at 2.3 standard deviations below the regression line (which begins 13 bars ago, and ends at this bar).
Here is an another example of use of the linear regression.

This is a daily schedule of MSFT. For the indicator is used between 13 and 1.5 standard deviations. I also added to the schedule indicator "Paint Bar". Parameters used for the indicator "Paint Bar" shown there. LRFU and LRFL - is respectively the upper and lower bands of linear regression.
As you can see the bars are displayed in black when they closed above the upper band, and blue, when they closed below the lower band.

www.linnsoft.com

Butterfly Effect

When traders hear about the Elliott Wave, they are usually at the same time hear about Fibonacci relationships. Just the reverse is also true. When discussing the Fibonacci ratio, it is almost always in the context of Elliott waves, or measurement of some recovery. However, I would like to propose the use of Fibonacci ratios to any graphical model. In this article, will be presented a graphical model, which is seldom discussed among traders - Butterfly Gartli.

JM Gartli published the book "The profit on the stock exchange in 1935. In this book, he refers to the graphical model, which can be confused with the well-known Elliott Wave. There are similarities, but it is - not the same model. Where in the Elliott Wave uses the numerical designation for the pulse waves and letters to the rehabilitative model Gartli only uses the letter to the central or turning points in the model. This is just one of the differences that can be seen immediately, but there are many others. Therefore, traders who use Elliott waves, may be somewhat confused model Butterflies Gartli. Therefore, it may be useful to take the material presented here, such as it is, rather than to compare two models with each other. There are several varieties of butterflies models, but this article will discuss only one variety.

In the above diagram, we see a common model of butterflies Gartli. At first glance it may look very strange. However, to begin I will explain the model and then show a graphic example. Black lines in the model of butterflies represent the price movement of market instruments. Thus, in Figure 1, we can see that the price movement occurs from point X to point A. Then, we have a downward fluctuation to a point B, which is not beyond the point X. This is accompanied by a movement to point C, which does not exceed the point A. Finally, the butterfly ends of oscillation in descending point C to point D. For purposes of discussion, this type of butterflies Gartli, consistent price fluctuations from point A to point D is within the price range determined by the points X and A.

The blue line on the chart represent the typical ratio of Fibonacci price fluctuations within the model of a butterfly. Price fluctuations from point A to point B will typically recover from 0.5 to 0,618 price range, some movement from point X to point A. Price recovery occurs from point B and ending at point C will usually end in the price range between 0.618 and 0.786 from price fluctuations from point A to point B. The closing price movement that occurs from point C to point D typically has a ratio of 1.272 - 1.618 prior to the fluctuations between points B and C. Price fluctuations from point C to point D may also have a Fibonacci ratio of 0.786 to 0.618 to the price movement from point X to point A.

Closing balance, which is usually referred to, is the equality of price movement from point C to point D, and the price movement from point A to point B. I also include the Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 for this part of the structure of a butterfly. It should also look for price fluctuations, which occurs from point C and ends at point D, that it was equal to 1.00 - 1.618 of the length variations from point A to point B.

If you have closely followed the only explanations that the model Butterflies Gartli, then you may wonder how the model should strictly follow the Fibonacci ratio. In my opinion, the Fibonacci ratio should be performed, at least for two consecutive price fluctuations. This will help us to mathematically confirm what we see in the chart. Also, the Fibonacci ratio to the last price fluctuations from point C to point D should be more important than other Fibonacci ratios in the model of butterflies Gartli.

In the above graph, we have three blue horizontal lines, which represent the levels of recovery 0.50, 0.618 and 0.786 from the full price fluctuations from point X to point A. Remember that we use the ratio of 0.50 and 0.618 for the movement from point A to point B. Also, we use levels of 0.618 and 0.786 for the variations from point C to point D. Thus, we measure two different price fluctuations. Note that the fluctuation from point A to point B does not come very close to the rehabilitation of 0.50 - 0.618. This differs from the price movement between point C and point D, which fits very closely to the goal of 0,618.

At this schedule, we are restoring the levels of 0.786 and 0.618 of price fluctuations from point A to point B. Please note that we have a price movement that is able to exceed this level and close above 0,786. However, the market is unable to support the crossing of this level, and the next day rose below it.

On to the schedule, we can see the Fibonacci projection at 1.272 and 1.618, which correspond to the price fluctuations from point B to point C. Notice how the price movement almost stops at the level of 1.618.

The latter characteristic of Fibonacci, which we consider as the price movement from point A to point B refers to the price movement from point C to point D. The graph above, we measured the movement from point A to point B, and designed the levels of 1.00 and 1.618 of the value of the point C. Here we can see that the price movement has made a definite shift between these two levels designed.

Final design
The last step, which is desirable to perform in any Fibonacci analysis is comparing the different reconstruction and projections of different price variations in the analyzed structure. This gives confidence in the given analysis. In the above graph, we have three projection for a point D, which we considered above. We have kept the same color scheme as in previous examples, so that could match the red, green and blue lines to the previous schedules. I believe that the importance of the schedule is that the whole group of relations is so close to each other that you can distinguish them only on the notes. This means that all of the Fibonacci ratio, which proektiruyutsyaiz different areas of the structure, suited to the same level where we can expect the formation of point D. Point D is thus the level where we could enter the market with the opening of bull position.

Although the examples that were cited above, refer to the bull's model Butterflies Gartli, the exact opposite is true for option bear model. All that need be done - is turn on the first example of Figure 1 to obtain disservice model shown above.

Butterfly Gartli is another way in which we can use the Fibonacci ratios to measure the visual model.

In subsequent issues of the journal will be considered other types of models Butterflies Gartli ..

www.optionetics.com

Interview with trader: Robert Rose

When you start trading?

I opened my first account in the U.S. in early 1998. and sold U.S. equities. I tried every technique, from skalpirovaniya pulse (more than 40 transactions a day) to the cutting of spread (very quiet trade) and trade on the movement. All, however, especially without much success, because it was one thing that I did not understand. Trade - this is business, not the game! I see it exactly the same as racing. Shares do not involve me more and I switched to trade in futures. For the first time I faced the risks of futures markets. I have followed completely the wrong strategy for the management positions, and therefore lost a lot of money. I decided that something must change and become read some books. After some time I began to understand that the philosophers' stone in the trade and is found in me the most. I was the one responsible for everything. I finally understood that trade - a business and it starts with a small but steady profits. Just at that time I met with the two dealers, which allowed me to work with them. This led to my breakthrough in 1999. Since I work full time as a freelance trader with various brokerage houses.

When the trade has become your main work?

In its twenty-I was still relatively young, and my routine after coming out of school include the immediate tracking American markets. It was not time for the German market. This, coupled with the lack of professional platform for the German market was the reason why I switched to the U.S. market. With the great success that I enjoyed in previous years, I left school in October 2001., Rather than the economic degree to concentrate on trade.

How much time per day do you spend per trade?

At present, not so much because I have committed positional deal (6 hours). Much of their time I spend on research and management of trade.

How much time is necessary to develop a trading system, and psychological aspects of a business plan for the trade?

It is - daily work, and I have constantly thought of new strategies and management practices.

How would you rate your knowledge of the markets? I refer to your knowledge of mechanics of trading as the market moves as effective to place transactions, and what trading tools are needed?

I think that I have extensive knowledge of markets. However, from time to time that happens, something new, slightly alter my attitude to trade. It does not happen suddenly, but rather is a gradual increase in the understanding of (evolutionary steps Trader).

What are your psychological strengths and weaknesses, particularly in the development of trading systems?

My weakness, almost certainly, is my tendency to chaos. Different ways, I must strive for higher order. Fortunately, this applies to my time away from trading. My strengths lie in my patience and the necessary discipline. There are so many things that are frustrating me. This is especially important during difficult periods or unwanted developments. I rarely get out of yourself and try to keep everything under control. But I was not always so disciplined. Especially in the beginning I felt a lot of unnecessary losses and saw trade as a sort of game - an error that costs me a lot of money. Only after I began to treat the trade as a business, my trading has become more efficient and structured.

What are your advantages in trade and the special trade of creating these benefits?

The advantage of my trade is in a consistent risk management. Not only that I know of the existence of risk, I also fully explored them from before. I keep risks to a minimum possible level. In trade, I never risk more than 2% of capital (with positional trade), and this is the highest level. The average risk for me - generally less than 1%. Open positions increased only when they are in profit. This method allows to achieve a better return to risk ratio. Since the trade position is to speculate on the trend spread, the ratio of return to risk is more effective because you can immediately recognize whether a change of trend.

Suppose you have a very effective trading system, with 50% th level gains, which allows twice the loss of profit, and you, however, suffered 10 failures in succession, you could survive with this?

I have had 17 consecutive loss-making transactions. This is not vybilo my gauge.

What is the expected profit from your trading capital in the year?

My expected return of about 20-40%. If I reach 20%, ie some decline in certain boundaries, I will increase the level of risk. On the other hand, if my income is too high, then I know what I am, almost certainly took too much risk.

With what potential risks you face in order to reach your level of profit?

Half of the winnings, approximately 20% per year.

What is the maximum loss that you are willing to take?

Approximately 25%.

How do you recognize whether your successful trading plan or not? What are your expectations of your systems in different markets? Trends? Consolidation? The high variability?

Each transaction is scheduled precisely. I always know what I should do, and therefore should not consider the options in the trade. All the scenarios are played before the open position and if a situation arises in which I was not ready, then I know that something was wrong with my plan and I am therefore looking for their mistakes. Since I am not tied to just one market, rather I have a range of different and unrelated markets, I always find a bargain, which I am interested.

What clients do you prefer?

I prefer clients who have some knowledge of markets, who knows that the decline in trade is inevitable, and who will not suddenly panic. The client must be patient and able to assess market risks.

Who are your customers? What are your goals? What services do you offer your customers? Your customers, for example, tend to diversify when you entrust your money?

Currently, I am wealthy private investors, however, my trading history is connected with institutional investors and when there is a good opportunity, they transfer me to new investors. The client requires some diversification, which seemed to them a variety of markets and trading strategies.

You are trading money for its customers: what risks they take? When they take their money?

My clients are ready to take the risk of 12-15%, however, with losses of 20%, they collect their money.

What should you make a profit for its customers to earn their admiration?

Customer covers euphoria with profits of more than 35%, and always difficult to achieve such results in the following year with the same risk parameters.

What is your fee? How much is deducted in a month or a year from the customer's account? And how high must be a profit to the client still remains happy despite these payments?

There are currently paid for the work of 25%, but there is no fee for the administration. Since there is only paid for the work, the money paid only from profits. This is effective on a monthly basis. Profit should be in the region of 27-30%, so that the client had income 20%. As long as these profits are achieved, the client is willing to pay a fee.

How high your trading opportunities? How do you achieve this? What do you do once it is achieved? Whether it is your trade?

Trading opportunities are approximately 100 million Euro. In the event of further increases in capital, the existing fund will be closed and will open a new fund. What's the worst that can happen in your relationships with customers, and what you do to avoid this?

The worst - it damages more than 20% of which were fatal, and to avoid this, I keep risks at a very low level.

What do you do in the event of a large income or capital, on the contrary, his retirement?

Deposits of up to 100 million dollars does not represent any problem. Large seizures do not pose a threat to the trading system, simply reduced trading volume.

Which markets do you sell? They are susceptible to specialization? Sell only on the liquidity, or also to the low liquidity of markets?

The portfolio consists of currency and stocks, which are regularly traded. There is no specialization in one market. Each of these markets are very liquid, the requirement for risk management is carried out, because you can work with very close stop-orders. At low liquid markets may be problems with the precise execution of orders.

As regarding the entrance into the market and how is it important?

Entrance to the market is only a small part of overall strategy. If I concentrate all their energies only on the point of entry, I have already lost. Much more important - this is a professional money management and risk, as well as overall management of commercial business. Entry point is almost insignificant.

What are the initial levels of stop-orders are you using? If they work, you quickly re-enter the market in order to use the slightest market movement?

Typically, no more than 1% of capital at the level of risk for foreign exchange transactions. Since the shares are slightly higher - 1.5%. If my stop-order and worked, this means that a change in trend has not yet happened and so I look forward to a new signal input. I re-enter the market, only if you receive a different signal, which indicated a change of trend.

How do you plan to profit zone - different levels for the stop orders, and its goal of profit? Contrary to the normal view, to whether you need to put more emphasis on the method of entry and stop orders?

I do not limit their profits if the market moves in my direction, I quickly increase its position to profit from such traffic. Naturally, there are always concerns about how far the market will move. Despite this, I do not limit their profits. My stop-order and placed in line with the graphic techniques and, depending on market volatility. When my stop-order and worked, trade is completed.

What are you doing for the management of money?

As I said, in the currency markets, I risk a maximum of 1% of the commercial capital, and with the shares - 1.5%. Stop orders are not permanently mounted on 1% of the commercial capital. It is very important. Stop orders are calculated according to the graphical techniques used in combination with the volatility of the market. When I know the value, I calculate the amount of the position according to the maximum risk.

www.aktienboard.com

Secrets of success of Mr. Bill

There are some similarities among those who succeed in life and has reached a certain level of excellence in their chosen field. Success is determined not by monetary standards, but rather the level of happiness, personal fulfillment and excellence in their profession. Mr Bill has reached the highest level. It is not a trader, but if you replace the word "trade" the word "coach", the lessons of m-ra Bill will be a perfect recipe for success in the markets.

Mr. Bill is a personal trainer, who discovered the secrets of health, happiness and creating excellent shape. Some of his clients are Olympic athletes who remain loyal Dr. m-Bill for many years. And there is reason - his philosophy on the importance of building a good foundation has helped its clients to win Olympic medals! Dr. Bill M-well beyond 60, but he has a body like a Jack LaLeyna and acuteness of mind like Ioda. Let's hear the man who said that the first thing that he does the morning - so get out of bed with a smile on his face, because it is an appropriate way to positively disposed to the whole day.

M-p, Bill said that a good foundation - it is the key to everything, whether it be bodybuilding or trading in the markets. How can you begin the path to achieving the levels of competence, not to mention skill, if you do not start with the base of the basic principles of training? In any field, if something is being done hurriedly, then find any cracks in the foundations, sooner or later, and inevitably you will return back.

I m Mr. Bill has a lot of words of wisdom, whom he could share with us to build a good foundation. To begin with, should be a strong methodology used in constructing the foundation and the methodology should be accompanied by a sequence. For example, when treniruesh body, it is important that the group of muscles to work in a certain order, because the blood flows from one group to the next. There is a rationale for everything, even if the results are not visible for a while. A good foundation is built on the fundamentals - the basic exercises for major muscle groups. And in applying this framework, the main thing is the proper technique. If you have the proper equipment that you do, you will be able to reach twice as much for half the time.

This definitely applies to the basic fundamentals of the markets. In the trade, keep the main core group of graphic models or strategies in which you sell. They must be built on the basic principles of price, because it is something that is intact. Follow their trade up program, using appropriate technology to manage their transactions. Proper technique is the equivalent of good habits. Even though the trader may not see immediate results from the following methodical approach to managing money, this is the good habits that will ultimately allow the trader to climb to a higher level, using a better balance and leverage. This is a good foundation and habits, which give the trader the confidence that his goals are achievable.

The rituals are the main tool used to achieve consistency. However, the rituals - this is not the only tool, they are also way of life! M-p, Bill has a ritual for almost all, starting with how you wake up. First breetes, then clean your teeth, etc. the same order each day. M-r 2,5 hours, Bill has a ritual before he starts training its first customer for the gymnastics. Please check your email, browse the morning news, and, of course, leave enough time to get to his "gymnastic room" that there was no hurry! In addition to the creation of a methodical approach to everything, rituals offer real help for the liberation of consciousness from stress, trouble, and negative thoughts.

M-r Bill states that the compilation and preservation of the report is an essential part of building a good foundation. (Sound familiar to success in the markets?) It keeps the course of each exercise, weights, repetitions and minutes that are suitable for each of its clients. He drew attention to every detail, the withdrawal or rejection. If a customer has a specific problem, he thinks about that night, and allow your conscience to think of creative solutions, while he sleeps. It seeks to achieve maximum progress for each of its customers. It is even more dotoshen in his personal preparation of the report, including everything from personal relationships to food and finances.

Think about the conduct of the report as yet another form of ritual. It is also a tool that helps you stay focused and take control of areas that are prone to distraction. This is also the main instrument used to monitor compliance. Each first-class athlete is a detailed account of his physical condition and his progress. There is no reason why a trader can not be a detailed account of its trade.

Saving the report allows you to track your progress in achieving your goals. If your goal is not stated, the m-p, Bill said that they cost you nothing. Once you write something, this is the first step towards undertaking. Record your goals firmly implements them into the unconscious, and less likely that you change them. You wrote down your goals for this year? How about to start with creating and maintaining a sound foundation for your trading program!

M-r Bill proposes to examine how adequately Outlining things in his daily. As soon as it is scheduled, it becomes part of your routine and quickly integrates into rituals. M-p, Bill said that if you do not envisages something like a regular visit to the gym, too easy to talk ourselves from it or defer. So, learn how to partition the time to compile your report and the preparation time needed to work the next day. There should be no reflection and no doubt when the time is ripe for the necessary preparations for the sale the next day. You will be satisfied, making the ritual part of your routine of the day, when you see that it helps you to begin trading day, feeling completely ready and kept things under control.

M-p, Bill said that if you KONTSENTRIRUETES on some muscle, you work and give it all your attention, it helps it grow faster. Concentration, in addition to a consistent methodology is a key component of a good foundation. Study to focus on certain tasks. When you deal in, or management positions, all your attention should be riveted to the occupation. With practice, it becomes easier to eliminate distracting thoughts.

M-p, Bill believes that all starts with positive thinking! It is not always adhered to that position. He drank heavily and smoked a lot until one day - 20 years ago when it just came out and said that ALL ENOUGH! He weighed 135 pounds at a time (and it is high man!) Now he had a more energy than people half his younger. This man loves his life! He said that his biggest secret - it is positive thinking. He starts his day with the words: "No negative thoughts today." He did not develop any negative thoughts. If it occurs in his consciousness, he or keep it turns positive. And he argues that there are some days now, when no negative thinking does not come into his head.

Exercise is one of the easiest areas in which you can quickly start to feel good. As you become more experienced, you get the strength and confidence. Everything then comes out. You will have more healthy food, because your body feels better. Vitamins will become part of your daily ritual. Alcohol and sugar will be less attractive. And you'll spend more time at night for a good sleep, because your muscles need more time to relax, to grow.
This analogy can be applied to commercial businesses. When the proper homework and preparations were made at the end of each day, we are in a stronger position, since the next trading day. The first few successful transactions will meet the taste, from the management of well-designed program, which in turn increases the incentive to continue to remove all the distraction and wasted time spent. Just as a person who participates in a regular exercise program, begin to establish a more natural goal, a man who begins to follow a consistent program of trade will also be set higher goals, like one day the successful management of money or seek to achieve continuous new highs on the account.

Remember the lessons of m-Dr Bill about the importance of a good foundation, which will begin the new year: keep the foundations, methodology, follow, be consistent, using rituals to achieve consistency, concentrating on his form and technique, write down your goals, enter the account of his promotion, and above all practice positive thinking!

www.lbrgroup.com

Writing Experts for MetaTrader. Lesson number 22

Hello, dear readers. I again had many questions and we explain them.

Question - Answer

"... I am writing a custom indicator of gistogramy, how do I do that would, in one case, the raw bar has a single color, and in each other ?..."
As I understood from the letter, if the indicator "hosts" on one condition it risutsya one color if the other (not "pass" for the past), then the other.

To do this we will use both the array indicator. As is known, we can define different arrays, different color, so to display an indicator, we will show its value in one array to another.

if CONDITION SetIndexValue (shift, ind) else SetIndexValue2 (shift, ind2);

"... In my nominee you want to enter the market through a specified number of bars since the conditions of entry, rather it is necessary to do re-scan as it can be done ..."

This point can be done in two ways.
The first method.

As a nominee, the external variable specified time frame to which is attached expert. For example, if the trade is conducted in H1, the variable, eg, timeframe (3600), ie 3600 seconds-1 hour. As a nominee in the fulfillment of the conditions pervnogo keep the current time (t1 = curtime), and then to test the use of such links:

if curtime-t1> timeframe * N then {................

curtime - number of seconds since 0 hours, 1 January 1970.
t1-value curtime N seconds ago
N-number of bars needed

The second way.

The second method is more versatile. The first condition in a variable, for example, Barr kept the current number of bars, bars, Barr = bars.

if Barr + N> = bars then {.......

N-number of bars needed

"... How to make a custom display to show 3 lines? .."

If you ispolzute indicator in a new window, ie, not in the window with the price, it does. MT is currently only supports 2 data set of user indicator.

If the indicator is used in one window with the prices, you can write some (broken down into a few) indicators and use them odnovremmenno.

"... I wrote a custom indicator, it works, but is not in the whole history of quotations. Why ?..."

The point is that complex custom indicators with a serious calculation "suspend" MT. Such indicators may be quite DOT brake, if it occurs, would be appropriate to limit the display indikatra in the last N bars. If you want to test ishoriyu with the use of this indicator, it is better to embed it in an expert.

In any case, limiting the display of the indicator would look like this:

For shift = 0 To Nbars Begin

or so

For shift = Nbars Downto 0 Begin

"... My expert is sometimes a very long time trying to open a position, and sometimes opens immediately. Why does it happen ?..."

The function of the installation warrants, the fourth parameter is the parameter "slippage".

SetOrder (operation, lots, price, slippage, stoploss, takeprofit, color)

It varies the speed and accuracy of performance warrants. Slippage is the maximum allowable slip in order that a warrant would be opened. In a quiet market, for example, for evry possible to use the value of less than 3 points on the U.S. session, better, in my opinion, the use of 3-4 points.

Conclusion

If you have questions about this material, or there are new, be sure to write me and I will try to answer everything.

Halhalyan Arthur
artur@fxtest.ru

How to manage trade

Managing open positions is the most difficult task facing the trader. The risk can arise at any time and make a good profit in a nasty loss. Too often, we have jumps in a good position, only to see it fail because of poor management of traffic. This is especially true for newcomers who think that the market - this is a game of "Guess - not

Experienced players spend some time to cope with confusing trading day. This multi-task, which requires considerable effort. But the reward is worth it, because it would allow traders to keep away from danger and protect their capital. To begin the long road to effective management of trade, the following are 20 ways how to make this a great idea into a stable profit.

1. Decide beforehand how you want to actively manage open positions. Professionals watching every tick and act on short-term fluctuations. Those who sell time, watch the morning news, and exploring everything that they need. Your own activity should be located somewhere between these two approaches.

2. Wisely choose your playing field. Keep track of weekly price bars, if you sell on a long-term basis; day pubs, if you - selling on the movement and the 60-minute bars, if you play tight in the intraday markets.

3. Highlight a special strategy to deal with items that are carried over into the next day. Learn where to stay in the market, and when the "desert ship" before the release of key reports and news.

4. Select the time and money for unexpected opportunities. New ideas arise all the time, and require your attention. Build schedule so that they deal with prospects quickly and efficiently.

5. Align your position in line with current market conditions. The general condition, the external impact and the unexpected volatility affect the success or failure of your transactions.

6. Traded on fluctuations up and down in rhythm with the market. In most cases, the market should be three-day cycle for trading on the movement and the 21-day cycle for positional trading. Find a place in the fluctuations and their use in favor of those who act against the market.

7. Have an effective plan for the first and last hours of the trading day. Inexperienced traders should be particularly careful at this time, but professionals may use this time for most of its decisions.

8. Study the trends during the day. Markets have a tendency to develop trend in limited periods of time, while trade was the dominant side for the rest of the day.

9. Select a set of trading tools and indicators, with whom you feel comfortable and work with them. Learn to correctly interpret the conflicting information, rather than look for new more sophisticated indicator.

10. Indicators to track and monitor their short-term cycles. Many indicators have their own lives, and they will help you if you learn to recognize them.

11. Keep one eye on their positions, and the other on the parallel market-based instruments. When your marketing tool for moving more rapidly than other tools, it should continue this behavior, and more. This becomes very important when there are significant movements in the markets.

12. Keep track of round numbers in the market. Sometimes the support and resistance of round numbers can be more important than the former maxima or minima.

13. Looking for breakthroughs that have developed over several days, the band. This tells you which way is more likely to develop market-based instruments, if it is or it topchetsya on the ground.

14. Examine the price GEPy and share all of their categories. Then decide for yourself a strategy that you'll use the next time you run into one of the GEPa.

15. Recognize when you are wrong and must withdraw from the market. Find the price at which the transaction will be bankrupt and not expect that the market changes, if the price level reached. The movement could be false, or the beginning of something bigger.

16. Do not try sverhanalizirovatsvoi position. Let each of the show itself. If nothing intelligible is not the case, then close the position and go on to the next transaction.

17. Look for early warning signals movement against your position or to confirm that you have done correctly.

18. Deal in small lots, if you are a beginner in this game. This will allow you to gain experience in a relatively low fee when you make a mistake. Beginners should concentrate on studying how to trade and not worry about making money.

19. Increase the size of the position during the band wins, because your performance suggests a reduced risk. Reduce the size of the position during the downturn and wait when the "scattered clouds."

20. Build relationships with the opposing crowd. Your profit is rarely followed the direction of the crowd, so try to be ahead of her, whenever it is

www.hardrightedge.com

Nuances of trade for the oscillations

Trading on the movement seeks to take advantage of the basic pricing models, which arise and can be used to trade in any market. While I refer to two-, three-day sales cycle, the principles set out here and work equally well for a week-long zoom, as well as the five schedules.

Do you sell short with a mechanical system or on a methodology similar to that which I represent, there is one key point I want to inspire you - Be consistent! You can not do the calculation for the Fibonacci levels of one transaction, try something else the next day, and then use something else for a third time. This does not work, because the trade - this is just a game of numbers and all that you need - is to try to get a small piece of the pie for themselves. My rhythm is composed of the purchase in one day and sell to the next or the next day. I perenoshu many positions on the following day. I do not sell much in the within-day basis, only those transactions that do not work. Those transactions that do not work, are intra-day fairly quickly. The exception, of course, is the market S & P, in which there are many opportunities for intra-day trading.

Managed Funds (and risk)
To measure the opening and closing positions. This is one of the aspects of money management, where I concentrated. I always measure the transaction. Put yourself in a situation of winning. Close of entries on record profits. Thus, you can not lose. If the market goes against you, then at least you have something to capture. If it goes to your side, you still have open positions to play more. Do not be greedy.

Most traders, traders in the room makes money twenty days a month. Then in the last two days, a strong trend in the day they lose, when other traders are selling to break. In trading on the vibrations, you should not try to resist the trend day - the market is going to quickly tell you, is your game or not. And if you're wrong, do not resist it.

Always enter the market with a game plan. At any time when the market effect of deviating from my plan, I am out of the game, because the market is not doing what I expect from him. If I do not know what he does, why should I be there?

At any time when you are in the market and begin to ask themselves questions like: "Well, what I should do now? I must go now? I should now take the profit? I must still wait? I must increase the position?" Whenever you have such questions, you have no business in this market. You have lost their advantage, because you do not have any control or plan to play in this market. So, before you start to trade on the movement, understand that you should never put themselves in position where you are going to react to this market.

I believe that the best way to manage your risk is to observe its curve assets. Every day I count how much money I made or lost. I do not care what position it is earned or lost or how much the winning and losing deals I had. When my curve starts to descend assets, I know that something is wrong - perhaps I pereutomlena or become rough.

I also believe in diversification. Something is always available. Do not "marry" in the position do not form opinions on the market. If I have formed a view on a certain market, I should cease to trade on it.

Finally, when the market rose against me, it is likely that it will go even further against me. That is why I go. I have always been able to come back next time for a better price. This - my rule. I do not see this as taking the loss - I just try to find the best position! And it works!

Reading data
The most important value for me - this is the maximum and minimum of the previous day. That is all I care about. Now, some traders like to calculate the levels of recovery based on the Fibonacci numbers. Any number will work, because it draws your attention to the market activity on another number. You can take any number and ask if the market coming nearer or farther from it. This is really a question of reading the data. Price makes progress to or from this number?

You will see that the intra-day peaks of cycles, founding the cycle, within-day variations, minimum and maximum levels are important support and resistance. Even at five schedules observe the minimum and maximum fluctuations. If you are on a weekly schedule, follow the previous maximum and minimum. Focus your attention on the pricing activity around these points.

These levels, or will be tested and the market will find support and form a good double bottom (trade from the double bottom provides a good opportunity, because you can make a very close stop-order and the market should go to your side almost immediately), or otherwise They will be broken (if it is accompanied by volume and activity, the more likely the movement will continue). Probably 90% of my trade is targeted to the previous minimum and maximum daytime schedules.

Many people like to look for the price divergence by using oscillators, or the fifth wave of Elliott - which is either a failed summit or the latest slight bend. This is still the same concept - a double peak, double bottom and testing. This is what is the basis of trade on the movement: Buying on the restoration - the location of where the market to find support, and will go away.

You only need to determine what works specifically for you. There is nothing wrong in a temporary format or another, with one style of trading or other. But keep trading plan, in its head. This will teach you to expect to have a plan to monitor how it works.

The transfer of positions
I am really confident in the transfer of positions to another day. For those of you who trades on intra-day temporary format, if you have a profit on your position at the end of the day, try to move them the next day. There is a high probability that you win. Clearly, one or two times they leave GEPom against you. But people do not care? You stay with a small profit. But there is a high probability that in 70% of cases, you will get more profits, shifting positions on the next day.

How many times have you composed the morning and saw that the market is made at the opening of GEO? And you have to sit and wait until the dust ulyazhetsya. You know as well, where you can enter, along with the market to open above, and you say, "Well, if they want to pay more, well, they will get it - sold!" And the price is usually recedes after a while after that.

As there are "variations"
Here is what the market. You have a lot of different players and time formats in these markets. You have the funds, pools, banks and all that with a lot of money.

On the other hand - all of those who traded in the room. Half of them receive their profits from teak, trading in the market back and forth. The other half usually, one way or the other, closing their positions by the end of the day. These traders skalpiruyut market, earning on that money, in fact, not so much the position of traders among those who traded in the room.

Because of all these different market players there are models of two-three-day fluctuations. Large corporate players can not use this to their advantage, and traders in the room is not interested, but this creates an excellent place to earn a living.

What's happening? The major players know the basic information that their analysts have laid in the market. They know where they should put x number of contracts for x number of days - really long-term plan for the game. They have really deep pockets.

These players are right, ultimately, they have deeper pockets than any of us. They can sit around and buy one after another decline. Maybe three months later the situation will change and they will sit on it, and then they begin to sell, sell and sell.

When the big players are starting to accumulate their positions, this does not mean that the price is going to stay there, just on some level, they start buying. The players in the room see that, for example, "Merrill Lynch" is working on a buy order of 1000. They just know that this will continue, and where the major players, so they start to come and buy a little, while supporting the market.

Suddenly, the price ceases to fall. Since the price is kept, all the people who sell the paper before beginning to collect their money back. Well, the price has stopped falling, so that they begin to pull money that could force the price up a bit. Then it begins to gradually increase. Then some people feel that the price is going to rise, and they start buying.

Around this time, traders are looking at the graphs, notice this increase. However, by the time they decide to send the warrant, other buyers will still purchase and the price will increase further and it has to pursue this motion.

And if there's no one who would like to buy more, the price ceases to rise. It does not fall immediately, but the price stops rising. When traders in the room will feel that the acceleration is weakened and begins to slow down the flow of orders, those who bought the morning when no one wanted to buy - are beginning to pick up their profits. This creates a low pressure sales on the market and people who see the beginning of the weakness in the market, are starting to sell.

Always there are people who bought at the market and selling it. There is a constant demand and supply. There is always support and resistance at each time the format is always someone collecting a profit. Anyone in a long position is required to take the profit or loss, and anyone in the short position is going to be closed at certain price. This is like a zero-sum game! This is - double the market.

Rhythm "variations"
So, I am looking for bottom variations and I think this is the first day. Day two should be the second day up, and on the third day I'm going to sell and go into a short position - to sell and look to roll back the following day. Then I go back to the first day, looking for a purchase.

So, my rhythm is from "buy", "exit", "sales", "exit", "shopping", "exit", etc. Of course, not everything goes so smoothly, but in most cases everything is done that way. I do 90% of its orders in the market, I am not bidding for one or two teak.

Above the foundation / below the top of
As a market test levels? Prices are reduced one day, and traders in the room close their positions. The market finds support at some point, even if small. What I want to do - is to buy when you are testing this support, the market usually gives you.

The market makes V-base only in a minority of cases. Basically, he makes W-base, or multiple testing, sometimes higher and sometimes lower-bases. The tops are very rarely inverted V - rarely the market is straight up and straight down. You get tested, or at least lateral movement or consolidation.

Do not be too troublesome, think about what you want to buy, what, where. Have a little patience, look at what the market is going to do. You can earn a living, just buying at the higher ground and selling at lower heights.

www.lbrgroup.com

Programming in MQL 4: Conditional operators

Today, as promised last issue of the journal Forex Magazine, we look at another missing link to create a full program: "conditionals."

If you try to draw parallels between the situations that arise in programming, and daily life, the "conditional operator" could be explained by the example of traveler, is at a crossroads and think where to go next. Let's try to imagine a course of reasoning which drive traveler to the choice of the direction of the path. If you omit all the details of the discussion of our "traveler", the course of his thoughts, you can submit a phrase: "if a certain condition, then make such a force, or do another operation." At the moment we are not so important, on what basis he can decide in which direction to continue the further way, because now for us is most important that in such a situation arises the moment of choice. In short, this pattern of behavior is called "if, then, else."

Sooner or later in the algorithm for almost any program is branching further course of action, it just is a time when it is required to determine in which of the areas will continue to move the program. To illustrate the above, the arrangement of the code written on MQL 4:

if (condition) (
/ / Execute this block,
/ / If the condition is true.
) Else (
/ / Execute this block,
/ / If the condition is false.
)

The variable "condition" in this case must be of type "bool". It can take values true or false. In addition, instead of a variable "condition" with an can be any logical expression, which make up by using comparison operators (>,> =, ==, <=, <), the negation operator (!) And the operators and and or. In the case where the variable "condition" or podstavlennoe replaced by a logical expression takes value "true", the code is executed, the prisoner in the first operator brackets. If the variable "condition" or podstavlennoe replaced by a logical expression takes value "false", code is executed, the prisoner in the second operator brackets, those that, after the word "else". Then the variable "condition" or podstavlennoe replaced by a logical expression will be referred to as a condition operator "if". In the previous example, the design is called a complete form of a conditional operator "if () () else ()". However, it is not always necessary to comply with any code, if the condition operator "if" is false. The following example shows the use of a short form of the operator "if () ()": if (condition) ( / / Execute this block, / / If the condition is true. ) Short form of the operator "if" easy to use, when checking the initial parameters kakihlibo functions. For example, the below piece of code shows the initial lines of the function init () Indicator Moving Averages, which occur checking input parameters to construct the indicator. When the billing period for this indicator is less than one bar, or type specified in the initialization does not coincide with any of the four permitted types of MA, the indicator still at a stage of initialization stops its work. if (MAPeriod <1> 3) (

g_Failed = true;
return (0);
)

If all of the checks passed, then no further action need to register in the form of "else" part of the operator, initialize, and in both the case will continue.

Actually, if we want to write fast programs, the full form of the operator "if" should be used as sparingly as possible. This is due to the characteristics of programs at the level of the processor.

To complete the study material should turn our attention to the fact that the condition operator "if" can be used not only the logical expression. If the conditions specify numeric variable or expression, the result of which will be the number of the operator "if" will take all the numbers are different from zero as the value "true", otherwise, if zero, the condition will be false. This can be used in cases where the value of a variable is checked for equality (inequality) to zero.

The following example shows two options for checking the variable equal to zero. Here, both the operator "if" one and the same:

int i = 1234;

/ / First version
if (i! = 0) (
Alert ( "i! = 0");
)

/ / Second version
if (i) (
Alert ( "i! = 0");
)

At the finish we have to consider ways and examples of the use of the conditional operator "if", because its use is an integral part of any more or less-developed program, and in the future, we still have to face him.

Alexander Ivanov

Ashraf Laidi. Are Euro for the next rocket?

The combination is expected raise rates from the Federal Reserve and the weaker-than-expected report on the payroll for the month of June in the U.S., the Euro has given vital impetus to improve. Breaking the 18-week trend line resistance above $ 1.22, EUR is positioned to further strengthen to the $ 1.2480-00 area in mid-summer. The June FOMC meeting behind us and the next FOMC meeting in a month. Euro receive its share of optimism and panic as the output of American and European data, as well as statements by Fed officials, for svyaschayuschih markets in the past thought "policy-meykerov" for the future of their policies.

Although there is a strong chance to see $ 1.25, we expect that the euro will face at least one obstacle in the month, which will send it back to $ 1.2370 by the end of the month. This obstacle could be the result of strong consumer price index in the U.S. this month, or any other event which could give the credibility of a possible raise rates by 50 basis points at the August meeting, FOMC.

Indeed, FOMC made it clear at its meeting in June that it intends to follow a balanced policy with regard to the tightening of rates, ie with a minimum increase of 25 points. But the Committee, at the same time, keeping the door open for more aggressive steps in its policies when it stated that it would "respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability." Probability of "yastrebinyh" statements by the representatives of the Federal Reserve remains significant, especially if the yield on Treasury bonds continue to decline, and will require incentives that might be too generous to the Central Bank. Although the 10-year Treasury securities reached 10-week minimum, we have seen many times this year, a strong record as one way to increase profitability, at least 20 points in 2 days. A decline in the Euro remains equally possible.

On the European front, rising inflation and improved figures for the business - the climate attracted further attention of traders, given the possibility of tighter monetary policy in September. After inflation jumped to 2.5% in May from 2.0% in April, the estimates for June converge at 2.4%, suggesting that the trend of price increases may last longer than expected. In the June decision by the policies of the European Central Bank hinted that price pressures may not only occur in the medium term, but could also continue in the longer term, being much above the level of 2.0% as oil prices remain high and the strength of global economic dynamism can continue to put pressure on prices of goods, including the price of oil.

Although data on the consumption and retail sales remain fragmentary, reviews the business climate showed gradual improvement, supported by Managers Index on purchasing, manufacturing and service sector, which expanded to 10 and 12, respectively. In addition, an overview of the German ZEW rose in June, violating the 5-month-lane drop. As soon as the Federal Reserve will make its second rate increase in August, would be unlikely that the ECB would allow the Federal Reserve to make the third increase in September without taking any action, as well as the continuation of price pressure in the U.S. definitely transferred the euro - far beyond the comfort level of inflation at 2.00 %.

Broke above 18-week trend line, euro accumulated technical capacity to move to follow the objectives, namely, the $ 1.2450-00, which limited the level of recovery in 61.8% of the movement of $ 1.2926-1.1759. But we feel that the inevitable setback caused by the fundamental data to prevent net increase for this purpose and will consolidate in the area of $ 1.24-25.

Ashraf Laidi
www.forexnews.com

Valery Syutkin: The first money earned illegally

How do you feel about the concept of "money"?

Nikita Mikhalkov said: "Of all the arts for us the most important thing is to get money." I would add that the greatest art - the money to spend, it is very hard, harder than earning money.

And learn how to properly spend the money?

For me personally, there are two basic formulas with money. First, with the money necessary to give up without moaning. " We love to enjoy life and have to pay for the pleasure and we should be aware. In doing so, we should not think about money, or no fun, actually, and not work. And secondly - priorities. I am very easy to part with money, but I have spent their principles. Received the money should be divided: that is necessary to spend it - on the separation. Then it's easy.

While earning enough to last for fun?

Financial genius - this is the kind of person who can earn more than his wife can spend. I do not know of, no. I just became a professional and exploit their profession. It allows me to any economic situation, find a niche and does not remain empty-handed.

A business is not thought to address?

No, I deposit a businessman, I have some grip, but big business, it requires great knowledge, composure, and ... not really mine. And then this fact must be dealt himself. So is not the case, that gave the money people put in his place, and they you have done and bring profit. At best, the return is not all due to your earnings, and in the worst case, will say that everything just collapsed. We must learn to control everything himself. Here's a creative business - it is about me. I'm interested in, not poor, and for the moment all I am satisfied.

How do you feel about this "American" history, when people from the very beginning makes a fortune?

I do not belong to it. I belong to people who are 20 years lupili "at one point and did not earn more than his salary. The greater part of my life, I lived in the Soviet country, where everything was "pribito for nails, and your destiny, all was clear until the end of life: school, institute, an engineer and so on. Talked about money in one word: "not enough" and "give a loan to pay." I am still doing my love and Soviet traditions still dream of earning. I'm not evil, but the feeling that you can relax and do not jerk, "I do not attend, I still dream.

When you've earned their first money?

That was 73 years, somewhere between 7 th and 8 th grade. In fact, illegally took me to the store "light" on the street. Solyanka, for the summer, the place to go to leave the seller. I earn in one month Fair 90 rubles, which bought his first drum, which later I get a lot more. And from that moment, I never sat on the neck of the parents.

And you zaviduete people kotorve earn more than you?

White envy envy when I see that the people of their efforts is seeking something bigger than me. And then, I'm not jealous, but equal to it, I want to do something better in their situation. People are earning lot of money - people with talent and power of thought. Business - it is hard work, requiring great effort. There can be jealousy, but respect.

Is it easy to earn money in Russia?

Not more difficult than in Europe. There is still a niche, but rather at the secondary level, where you can earn, at a high level, probably has not. Although ... if a person is talented, literacy, it is quite possible that all will turn out. I've been endowed with a talent for communication, someone has the talent to turn 1 in the ruble of a hundred dollars. Only in the way! And the situation is now such a fragile, that money can not keep with them, you must kudanibud they invest.

And where would you recommend to invest?

I can recommend only one to have a profession, to believe in yourself and work! If you love something, than doing - it is ideal! The biggest value - it is time to hold it must be interesting, and, eventually, the money provides only a possibility. Still need to understand the true value of things, I, for example, never buy a madly expensive car, if I'm not using it, and we, the Russians have a very characteristic feature - show off.

You lucky man?

In the life of me lucky. Right now, for example, I have a wonderful mood, I have a wonderful wife, a young, fervently loving my little daughter - this is the most important, and the rest - things. (Pauza.) ... But the money needed, so I stick!

So then did little luck?

In addition to luck, you need to learn to do everything very well, professionally, with talent, then all the money earned, and you just reach. If you'll stand the professionalism of the situation, then all will turn out. But this need to learn, one must work hard, have a goal, talent. Do all quality, with dignity, then come and be themselves. I know this from experience.

Alien Money

Dow and Elliott Waves

HARD Right Edge Theory Dow has more than 100 years. So, the idea that Charlie Dow have to offer modern traders?

One of the most powerful concepts in the Dow is three - wave principle. A decade later, after the Dow wrote about this principle, RN Elliott has created its unique Elliott wave theory. So, let's try to combine their work and see what they wrote decades ago.

Three waves Dow had been built on the concept of the primary trend. We all know what Charlie said here. The primary trend (or the main trend) - the main market area for several years. Through him, we define, we are in bull or bear market. Dow determined that the primary trend, looking at long-term price patterns and seeing the obvious.

Elliott used his five - wave trend to reach the same conclusions. He noted that the primary trend is composed of three waves, moving in the direction and two waves moving against it. In addition, each primary wave consists of a smaller wave structure, which shows the true nature of price direction. For example, Elliott said that the failure peretekanie show some waves within this fractal structure and cause Facing the trend.

According to Dow theory, the market tend to have higher peaks and higher reduction, shows a primary bull trend. On the contrary, the market, marking the lower peaks and lower reduction, shows the primary bearish trend. Elliott did not have any problems with this approach, but he added a few of their own refinements. For example, he pointed out, as some stages of the primary trend showed a very limited opposing waves and rarely updated, yet complete set of waves has not been completed.

Three - the principles of the wave becomes more interesting when Dow and Elliott describe the typical behavior of crowds in each of these waves. Let's explore them through the bull market cycle.

The first wave is the purchase of undervalued assets patient investors who expect better economic conditions and long-term growth. This happens at the very time when the crowd showed their most pessimistic mood, but experts reassure all stay out of the financial markets. Investors in undervalued assets are coming out of stupor and realize that prevailing in the markets of apathy hides the nascent recovery. They insist to buy from vendors are concerned and provide a viable base.

Elliott noted that the first wave shows very gradual improvement in price and often back to test lower levels. He also pointed out that this wave requires a lot of time to complete and provides a true bottom of the graph. A positive factor is that the market will eventually cause the momentum, enough to push prices to much higher levels.

Bull confidence begins to rise during the second wave of Dow. Improved corporate earnings, generate employment and unexpected innovation characterize this mid-wide bovine movement. More and more investors are now included in the market because they see better times ahead and want to participate. They form a good portfolio and begin to follow the markets with great interest.

Elliott sees this wave as the most reliable stage bovine full cycle. Price movement is advancing rapidly, with fewer overlaps with the day to day. Small GEPy appear between the bars, as investors buy high and hope to sell even higher. The sharp increase often GEO straight in the middle of the waves, when an explosion of enthusiasm creates a wide GEO continuing. This is a very strong movement frequently points to the exact middle of the full three - wave scenario.

Signs of danger are increasing during the third wave of Dow, but they are difficult to take into account because of the extremely azhiotazhnoy market situation. Record earnings and full employment encouraged the media to declare unlimited economic prospects. The public forgets about its losses during the recent Bear cycle. Purchases are becoming more azhiotazhny nature. At this very moment, investors who bought at the base are starting to record profits and unload their positions in the hands of thirsty public. The market will eventually exhaust its possibilities, and noted the long-term top.



The last wave of Elliott can show a parabolic spike, or the rejection of the movement before it starts. This points to the danger faced by the public when the market is at peak strength. Elliott noted that the large-scale Facing of this latest wave can be very deep and painful. As we now know from personal experience, these quick sales are common deficiencies in all bull cycles.

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Interview with trader: Don Henry

Question: What has been your experience in the trade?

Don: I started to trade shares after college in the early 1970's, and sold all the running for many years. I put more emphasis on positional trade in grain, currency and make some trade-in e-mini and bond recently.

Question: What hardware do you use?

Don: I use two computers, one of which - a laptop. Both computers have dual displays. The main computer - 500 MHz, 128 MB, with 2 monitors, trading platform - Ensign Windows. Get real-time data via satellite.

Question: Tell us about your brokerage business?

Don: I've been a broker since 1986. and started with Dean Witte. I became an independent broker in 1990. I have clients in 7 or 8 states and a number of active clients abroad (Brazil). While in North Dakota, many of my clients' fixed-term contracts are traded on the livestock and grain. Fees range from $ 25 to $ 40 for full service. Full-service portfolio includes support, advice, training and explanation of technical analysis. Some clients also want to receive recommendations. Many of my clients are traded with me for 10 - 15 years.

Question: Does your favorite types of analysis and tools to which you reliance?

Don: Yes. I recommend that my clients have read 2 or 3 books. I recommend them to read books by Bill Williams Trading Chaos "and" New dimensions of trade. " I also like Joe DiNapoli book "Trading with DiNapoli levels. These books included in the list in ascending order of their complexity and involvement. Also, I recommend the "disciplined trader" Mark Douglas. My favorite tools - it is Moving averages and the old reliable index of relative strength (RSI). I use a sliding average method, which uses them, Bill Williams, including convergence / divergence of moving averages (MACD). Most of the time I have RSI in their schedules. Discipline the use of stop orders and the management of capital are key to the trade. I do not want it sounded as though I have all the answers. I am always working to improve its consistency. I admit that from time to time, I go too hot.

Question: Does your favorite image formation, which do you think?

Don: There are two formations, which I am looking for - "head and shoulders, and the model of" 1-2-3 "at the base and top. Model "1-2-3" in the ground can be described as having a 1 at the base, a strong leap up to a point 2 and No 3 to the point, but without breaking point 1. My level of purchases will be up when passing through the point 2. Basically, I traded for a breakthrough. In the model of "head and shoulders" I traded with the break through the neck and also use the model to measure the price objective of equal distance from the neck to the top of the head.

Question: What kind of drops you have learned to avoid?

Don: For many years I can see Traders who try to escape from the difficult situation, thinking that it can not become worse. But it happens. The lesson seems to be explored again and again. It concluded with us when we fight with the markets and resist what we see. The correct philosophy is to "see it, believe it and trade it." This is a mistake - to impose their own ideas on the market. Another rule that I use - I did not add to a losing position. I acknowledge that I have done so, but it is very dangerous - to attempt to averaged a losing position. Traders are often forced to leave the loss-making positions at the request of the deposit (margin call).

Question: What is an interim format you use for your charts?

Don: I primarily use ticks and schedules for all Fibonacci numbers. For example, I use 34 - and 55 - ticks graphics for e-mini, which are often converted into 3-minute bars. To market the grain, I use 13 - or 21-ticks graphics, which are often converted into 7-minute schedules. For longer periods of time I watch 30-minute charts and then convert them back into the schedule ticks closest to the Fibonacci numbers. You can get ticks by for use by exploring the volume of a 30-minute schedules about 5 different points on average per day. If the 30-minute bars volume will be an average of 150 ticks, I would use 144-ticks schedule as his long-time period for the schedule.

The first thing I do every morning - I look at their daily and weekly charts to get a big picture. I like to trade towards a greater time period such as 144 - or 233-teak schedule. I traded on the schedule with a shorter period of time, but only in the direction of the schedule with the next big format.

Question: How often do you sell?

Don: With intra-day trading on the e-mini, and I'm trying to reduce their transaction. But I still sold 10 - 20 times a day for 55 ticks schedule. My main instruments - is Moving averages, MACD and RSI. I have a feed, using a sliding average as the maximum and the Moving Average as a minimum. I use a sliding average, like Alligator, described in the book Williams. I'm using longer Moving averages, for example, with the parameters 21 and 55 for high and low channels, because the volatility in these markets has increased. I also hold a 200-periodnuyu Moving averages at all time formats that focus on the direction of the market.

Question: What constitutes a successful sale for you?

Don: When you trade on the e-mini, I try to stay in the market and use of a mobile stop-order. One rule that I use - it is after the 10-point gains, I fixed portion of the profits. The same principle is used and with the grain. I, first, try to capture some profits and, secondly, I'm trying to market to move, giving him some space.

Question: What are the market conditions you're looking for?

Don: I love the trend markets, but markets are in a trend, only 30% of the time, and variable - 70% of the time. I would only be a trend in the markets, but it is difficult to predict when a trend. I love the Elliott Wave count in order to find 1-2-3-4-5 Elliott model and be on board during the 3rd movement of waves. I generally avoid the bottom and tops, but I like to trade in the 3rd wave. Although it is sometimes difficult to find what I am looking for. I do not like to be in the market during a speech by Mr. Greenspan. I prefer to stay out of the game, when the markets are subject to considerable variability.

Question: Do you use any risk management and money management techniques?

Don: I must emphasize the use of stop orders. If you can not find an acceptable level for the stop-order, taking into account your tolerance for risk, then miss a bargain. Do not risk more than 2 - 3% of your trading capital in any one transaction.

Q: What advice can you give to beginners?

Don: My advice is to go very slowly and make small changes. Pay attention to profitability. If there is a high yield, it means that there is a high risk. Start with low-income and low-risk market-based instruments, which have high liquidity. Before we begin the real trade potreniruytes for educational accounts. If you feel that you can make money on the market, selling educational accounts, you start to trade on the real small amounts.

Question: Any comment on the brokers or the execution of warrants?

Don: Most brokers are very executive. Anyone can have problems at any time. We have an active market, use electronics, and problems can happen when we do not want. But this is only a part of this business, because it is becoming increasingly high-tech. Thinking that to be faster at a fraction of a second is better, we only fool ourselves. In general, if I wait a second or two longer, then I get a better price. So, ultimately, there is no sense to try to be a few seconds faster.

Question: Do you use a mechanical trading system?

Don: No, I never used a mechanical system. I use technical analysis tools, but still want to add their own sense and feeling of the market. All mechanical systems, seems to work only part time and I have never been inclined to throw money at something mechanical black box that is often advertised. I have read over 30 books on sale, but have not yet visited any of the seminar on Trade.

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