Thursday, March 12, 2009

Zurich axioms


Max Gunther formulated the basic principles of trade, called Zurich axioms:

About Risk:

• Anxiety - this is not a disease but a sign of health - if you do not volnuetes, you do not risk anything significant.
• Always play at significant rates - if the number is so small that its loss would not have any significant value, then it's likely also not bring any tangible benefit.
• Avoid the temptation to diversify.

On greed:

• Always pick up your profits fast enough.
• You decide in advance what gain you want to get from the deal, and when you get it, get out.

On expectations:

• When the ship starts to sink, do not pray - jump.
• Take small losses calmly as inevitable. Be prepared to get a few losses in anticipation of big profits.

About prognosis:

• Human behavior can not be predicted. Do not trust one who claims he knew the future, but vaguely.

On the models:

• Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly.
• Avoid the trap of history - it is based on the old, but is not guaranteed assurance that proper rehearsal on historical data allows you to make accurate predictions in some situations.
• Beware of chartist illusions - this is characteristic for the human brain - to seek cause-effect relationships where they do not exist.
• Beware of the player's mistakes - there is no such thing as a «Today, my happiest day» or «I am now in shock».

On mobility:

• Avoid the «root». They impede motion.
• Do not run into the trap of zakisaniya because of the emotions, like loyalty and nostalgia.
• Do not hesitate to leave the company if there is something more attractive.

On intuition:

• guess you can trust, if it can explain.
• Do not confuse guess with hope.

About occultism:

• If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.
• superstition can not eliminate. They can be enjoyed if it is constrained within certain limits.

Of optimism and pessimism:

• Optimism is expect the best, but confidence means knowing how you will deal with the worst. Never make the motion, if you're just optimistic.

About Consensus:

• Ignore the majority view is probably wrong.
• Never follow speculative boom. Often, the best time to buy something at a time when no one does that.

On perseverance:

• If something does not work the first time, then forget it.
• Never attempt to rescue the bad deals by averaging.

On planning:

• Long-term plans to create a dangerous belief that the future is under control. It is important never to take their long-term plans or plans of others seriously. In essence, this paragraph refers to the axioms of the advantages and disadvantages of the availability of trading strategies and bonding to it, regardless of what other traders say or do. If you do not have a trading strategy, it will be even worse. However, do not be afraid to add something, or reduced to these principles, depending on whether it works or not for you.

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