Thursday, March 12, 2009

The time when it is necessary to earn and the time when it is necessary to wait

the time when it is necessary to gain time and when to wait.
The market will let you earn only if You'll be patient.

Hello dear readers of the magazine Forex Magazine. I always continue to publish their reflections on the practical application of knowledge in the field of trading, the experience and, of course, by your reasoning. In this article I would like to talk about long-term trends and their identification. In particular, there you are an interesting point, that last week we have seen serious upward movement of the pair EUR / USD. It is possible that upward trend will continue and even a few days. Here is how accurately it is very difficult to say why we have to be very cautious in such moments. Another thing if you open a position at the time of emergence of such a trend then was to keep until recently, but such is subject only to outsiders, and then I think even they can not predict such a move. But our goal, of course, is profit, so we need to find a way to enter the market and retain our position as long as possible.

It is important to find a positive side to the entrance, because it may present some negative aspects:
1. After committing a transaction, you acknowledge that you have placed a stop incorrectly calculated and descending korrektsiyamozhet touch this stop, and you leave with nothing.
2. Very often, the market observed prices of such options. See Figure 1.

The market can teach you a surprise, as I cited in the figure and the most important is that neither you nor I will not be able to predict this behavior, you may have good intuition, so you can relax, but the likelihood of this is very small. So I would just like to warn you and give you a note of this development. Because if you decide to enter the market and use for this one way (the news or the method of the time, as I have explained in more detail below), you can always assume that you are confronted with these developments. How to behave in such a case, I will tell you also.

Figure 1 shows you the situation in question. Suppose you have successfully entered the market. At some level, ascending candles. How can this be done. In order to identify the transaction is very important to follow the market sentiment, requested to contact the news. But before you start to review information, please contact sales calendar for the week, because he will be your true navigator on the market. For me, the calendar is a very important indicator for the execution of transactions, so I also urge you to pay attention to it. Here's an example: if you know exactly what will be published on Friday a very strong report on unemployment for the month, the probability that the market will react to news others weaker becomes very small, because attention is focused directly on the traders on the news unemployment. Here's the way it goes back a candle, it seems, and was formed due to a strong publication record in the market, but coming immediately after her down the candle has a different reason. You can call it a downward correction.
In this case, you must be very careful, because after all, this correction may result in a descending trend, as it is not then and are pleased with all that you open a transaction with the real means. That is why I always advise you in such a situation to make tightening the stop loss at the level without loss. This, of course, if you're planning to stay on the "waves", because there's always the possibility that the correction did not last long, given Figure 1 - an exception. Also, this behavior applies if you plan to enter sensitive to upward trend and stay there for a longer period of time. With such developments, I would like to give you advice not to allow your position to go into a zone of loss. Well, if you have allowed that position to move into an area where your profit will be calculated at as negative, it is probably worthwhile to think about that you made a mistake and did not feel the market, allowed him to pick his own. But in fact, judging by the quality of the work in the market, means that the longer you hold an open position, the greater should be your profit for this position if necessary, or whether that be in order to exit the market. The first time I encountered such a combination with a real account, I was able to earn 1 point. Then I could not afford even the thought of a loss, so the best decision that I took, it was close a position, let even a small profit. Next time I will be more clever, because now I will always assume such a development of the situation and make a decision sooner than required.

In Figure 2, I gave you a clear example of a rising trend and its development. Two thick, red lines, I observed the most favorable level of market entry and a level that would have been able to lead you to the closing of open positions. That's even seen a quality trading and its effects. Look further, that the observed trends continue, and the subsequent testing of the maximum, but far from your level of input. Line number two shows you the level of inputs, in other words the level of the transaction, after which I pointed out the line number 1, the level of this line lie in a zone when it comes to deciding on further action or go to market with minimal profit, or to remain here and wait for further growth. You would be able to do much, if not come out at this point. Well, you tell me, as if the market had committed the same roll, as in Figure 1. True, it may be, and such a development, so I decided to write this article and give some recommendations in such cases.

1. The first thing to be able to help you in such moments - display orders to sell at a profit (Take Profit). Typically, abrupt movements occur in a matter of seconds and if your position will be closed with the result more certain you are not to think about to keep it or not. You appear to account a fixed amount of profit.
2. It is important to plan the work before you are going to open a position, and plan to present a warrant. Then, if you expect to retain their positions for longer periods of time, you can come out of this, as if to put the maximum allowable level of exit from the market if the price suddenly it will test a work order for sale
3. And most importantly, if you plan to buy for a longer period of time, in this case, you must learn to wait the moment of recoil, from the main trend, ie, the time correction.

Now I will tell you a little about what to apply the rules that help me survive in the forex market and make profits. First of all, if you want to learn how to earn a market for this, I would like to ask you to learn to wait. Yes it is coming. Of course, the market provides an opportunity to make every day and night, but in order to learn how to do this, you must be very professional trader. Because once you start trading terminal window on your computer, do not forget that this same window to launch in Japan, America, Netherlands, the managers of the bank Citigroup, managers of large American banks, they are just now going to earn like you and these guys allow much less mistakes than you do, of course, if you're not a professional, which trades on the market around year 5, operating from its investors.
Therefore, in order to get good experience and not lose their earnings, and I want to ask you the first thing that you always waited for and analyze before you commit the transaction. And yet, if you missed the opportune moment to enter, do not jump on the departing train, because you can miss. Better to admit it in your soul Sit back and wait because in a few days or weeks, the market will let you perform a transaction, but this time you will know exactly what that day you and today you will earn as much as necessary. But in this case, of course, it is likely that your view is wrong, then do not rush otygryvatsya of emotional impulses and to commit the transaction, close your trading terminal and relax for a few days. Analyze your losses and disassemble it. And only after that it returns to the market, if you need more time to take it and be aware that the market is nowhere you do not leave, but your money
may leave, but now remember how many you took the time to get them. It is better to learn to wait, then again what they make from scratch.

Now tell you a little about the practical application, the methods described by the entrance. In this Friday had been released a report on unemployment. What are your steps: using the calendar of economic events can be just in time to determine ad performance and prepare for this event. In our case, the data were announced on Friday at 13.30 GMT. Up to this point in the market present negative mood on the dollar, so about the turn of the rising trend is not to say, because, as this would take more seriously the data for a longer period of time. Therefore, in this case it was necessary to develop the following plan:

Because we do not know where the market goes, it will involve several scenarios. In the event that the data will be above average, this may help the dollar and then the price per pair EUR / USD will fall due to an increase in the dollar. But the collapse would not be very long period of time, because the market will still be dominated by a negative mood on the dollar.

In this case, you must pick up a profit 70 pips. Moreover, with such developments, one could enter the market for a longer period of time, bottom-up trend, because now there is the trend for the pair EUR / USD. Look at Figure 3.
In Figure 3 the arrows indicate the movement of the third candle prices, if you take the right side. This candle, I identified with number 1. It is at such a candle could enter the market and take a wait-and-see stance, as the upward trend, I think, will continue even at a time. If the data for the U.S. came to less than projected, the price immediately start growth, in which case you will need to enter the market through the orders, because in such periods of price increases so quickly that you do not manage to make your transactions at specified prices. In such moments put a stop to 47 pips in turn, because it can be assumed that the market can turn quickly in the opposite direction. And our task as a trader to provide all options for the future and to calculate, first of all, the losses that you can afford to incur. But profits to grow.




AlMaz Fund management.
Alexander M. Mazurkevich

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