Hunting for slonopotama

This feeling is born, perhaps, immediately after the May holidays. To say - when the Americans stormily gladdened and standing poaplodirovali another "good" figures of the Ministry of Labor. Still, on Wall Street in the ninth floor, the morning is always applauded, and everything. So it should be. It's like a tight smile of duty at the meeting showing the interlocutor that you are the type of top. Personally, I opened their stock market resembles our October show, and the cries of "hurray" for the podium to welcome the mausoleum, to bless the feat, the hands of chiefs. The same labor enthusiasm and the same groundless faith in a better future for all of the same matrix.

Another would be to see how many new jobs they created the capitalist economy. Well, remember: this is where 288 thousand seats for April, but still have revised the March data from 308 (which is already above the roof) to 337 (and is in the best years, it was only on special occasions). Gear-up-to-date details of the developed matrices will follow obediently: analysts at all the sites together wrote that now is the dollar will continue to grow as a yeast. Because of these remarkable by themselves, yes, investors are sure to be one soon raise rates, and friendly nakinutsya buy dollars. Dollars are the best types went. But believers in the whole thing will take on big profits and a sense of deep satisfaction.

And traders - there. Smart and experienced a more thoughtfully silent, and who saw little, so no smell of gunpowder - who may ask, as teammates, and almost the same zauchennymi words: expectations of growth rates trend upward for the dollar. And here is the first time and there is the incomprehensible feeling of awkwardness. It happens. When people at heart are sure. And if you honestly ask yourself, then understand that they do not believe in his same speech. I feel dirty trick, but certainly kept with them, deep inside the drive. And even from a carefully conceal them, that work is not hindered. Main does not stop there. Because "there is thinking - need to shake." And talk in the circle of colleagues and to write - or step of the template, so that the authority does not crash. All say that the dollar will rise, but I'll take that and say "I do not know"? Well, of course, the dollar will rise. " Only he had two months anything either from their seats. Yeah, and communism to the 80 th year, build (or if there was according to plan, we have not missed?).

Since then, the feeling is not leaving, but clearly formed. With each new number statistics, with each new analytical commentary. Each time, habitually, as if nothing happened or changing the tone of a period of several days or even more frequently. The dollar has since, in essence, where he was - and remained there. But who cares? But a couple of bucks worth of days fall - immediately write that investor optimism declined, as rates may not raise by 50 points, but at 25, and the trade balance did not last very much, and for this reason that the dollar could fall, likely to continue. It should be in the next couple of days back he podrasti - and the same songs, but with an accuracy up to the opposite: investors are once again came out of the coma yesterday, "remembered" that they are in fact expected growth rates (forgot yesterday), plus a good recent data (published or pending), Greenspan's fateful speech (which does, incidentally, is not new to say), and again transferred to the arrow dollar - meaning that by the end of June is expected to grow. Every five or six have already managed to change the direction of the comments over the past one and a half months. There - here. And every time - truly and forever. Along with the general line.

So, just yesterday, I finally understood - what does all this air abrasion recalls. Hunting for Slonopotama. If anyone read the "classics" - "Winnie the Pooh and all-everything-all" is called. By the way, a very wise book. As another, "Tao Pooh" Benjamin Hoff, I read 3-4 years ago. Quite a fun and useful reading for prochischeniya brain.

So, you'll recall - who Slonopotam? And why has this character? One day, when Christopher Robin, Winnie the Pooh and Piglet sat and talked peacefully, Christopher Robin swallowed what he had in his mouth and said, as if among other things:

- You know Piglet, but I have seen Slonopotama.
- And what is he doing? - Asked Piglet. (One could think that he or droplets are not surprised, as if every day has seen Slonopotamov and excellent know who they are.)
- Well, just stick - said Christopher Robin. - In my opinion, he did not see me.
- I also like one I saw - said Piglet. - ???????, this was it. Maybe not.
- I, too, - said Pooh, puzzled. "I wonder who is it that Slonopotam?" - He thought.
- They are rarely seen, - said Christopher Robin carelessly.
- Especially now - he said Piglet.
- Especially in this time of year - said Pooh.

Here's who Slonopotam. One dream, others supported it, not wanting to hit in the face of dirt and show your ignorance - as a result of nature, or rather in the minds of speakers appeared Slonopotam.

More - more. Once Slonopotam is, why it does not catch. But how? The first thing that came to mind Puhu - dig a very deep hole. And then Slonopotam will walk and fall into the pit, and ...

- Why? - Asked Piglet.
- What - Why? - Said Pooh.
- Why did it fall?

Pooh loss nose paw, and said that I probably would walk Slonopotam, murlykaya a song under his nose and poglyadyvaya at the sky - the rain will not go there, so he did not notice is Deep Pit until you fly it, and then it will too late.

Piglet said that this is certainly a very good Western, but that if the rain would have to go?

Pooh again scratched his nose and said that he had not thought. But then prosiyal and said that if the rain will be read, Slonopotam can look at the sky to see whether the rain will stop soon. Here it is again and did not notice is Deep Pit until you fly it! .. But then will be too late.

Piglet said that now everything is clear and, in his opinion, this is a very, very tricky West. As we can see, our heroes have all seriously, and for Slonopotama decided. And, consequently, Slonopotam already as good as caught.

Nothing is like? Is not it, and analysts to discuss the market at times, in passing mention that somewhere seen the trend. What is he doing? Yes way around. Why not Slonopotam? And it is not such a way the second month is already trying to understand in which direction he goes. Or say: there is a trend, it can not be. That's it on the rain It zasmotritsya - Trend look, do not go there bad balance of trade, or GDP - and, indeed, fall into the very deep hole, ie resumes. Here we have it and was caught.

The differences are insignificant. So write that he is now moving to the north, and very deep need to dig a hole there, then write that to the south, and cunning West need to organize in this direction. However, in reality, it seems, is that no trend can not move, because it simply does not. It is also the fruit of our imagination, as Slonopotam. And catching it is for the same reason, with the same success.

By the way, that they were caught Slonopotama? In the very deep hole you need to put something such that, like Slonopotamy. What is it? Piglet offered, of course, put acorns. But Pooh indignantly rejected the idea.

- Honey, - said Pooh.
- Honey?
- Barrel of honey, - said Pooh.
- Are you sure?
- Hogshead of honey - insisted Pooh.
- You ever heard that Slonopotamy love honey? Sticky, gooey. Yes they do.
- The fact - said Pooh.

So, we decided to catch Slonopotama, the trend is, that he loves. Specifically, fish that love bears, analysts and traders. But bears like honey, and interest rates. As soon as the trend to see, that smells like interest rates, he and about the rain, perhaps, forget - and land in very large hole.

Only here forgot to take into account that Slonopotama need to catch that Slonopotamy love, rather than analysts. A general trend, and something to interest rates is not particularly ???? - so, sometimes, on occasion - and only in the last year is full of satiety. Well, will improve - it is understandable that they would be more than it is now - this time. Less than pounds - they are two. And some, such as the Euro, maybe more, but not immediately. And the whole plot.

In fact, if we look at these simple ideas a little poglubzhe, then common sense tells that an increase in interest rates on the dollar as almost a fait accompli - the market has long been taken into account. And not so interesting, it will happen in June or August, or to fall by 25 basis points, or just 50. Because a reasonable investor long ago, with winter already clear - the process went, it did not stop. And Smart Investor has long been made for the benefit of the dollar. Not in vain as the euro has drawn a double top on daily charts, and the course now 1,18-1,22, 1,28-1,29 rather than, as in January. But these rates and, obviously, is not a reason to return for no apparent reasons for the additional 1.10 or 1. And this is true. The market is much more interested in not bidding, but the situation in the economy, real economic statistics. By this point, reached a stable equilibrium between too cheap and too expensive dollar. May-June, largely chaotic, traffic is only confirmed. And no one single factor, whether wee-wee-ah in si-pi-aem, German IFO, good or bad trade or balance of payments of the United States for one month, or any shade in the utterances they officials will not be able to confidently shift this balance. This will require a combination of factors. And they can be assessed only on the aggregate or, in this case it is more reliable, the use of His Majesty the technical analysis. Because it reflects the reality, not the mythical change in market sentiment. And if you really Slonopotam soon, we will see it should be on schedule, and will be able to confidently dig a hole. And yet ...

You are not forgotten, than over fishing in the honey? In the pit failed and instead get an imaginary Slonopotama real Winnie the Pooh, and a very serious fall. With empty pots from a favorite of honey on his head, he shouted and vyl so terrible that it even took over first Slonopotama. So some analysts and traders trying to catch the trend in interest rates, only to come across it by yourself and cry, losing money and not knowing how to escape. Because they are interested in rates, rather than serious investors, and through which there is a movement in the market. What can you do, it turned out that honey is not a good combination with Nature Slonopotamov. In fact, over the May-June, I also first couple of times to take part in the excavation Very Deep Pit (small number of lots: instinct prompted that unreliable). But, as they say, the main thing - time to stop.

Fair to say that in the last week the tone of the most reasonable comment radically changed. Here are a few salient remarks, almost matching the meaning.

Mark Chandler of HSBC June 23, writes: "The fundamental causes of movements in the currency market now can not explain. For instance, yesterday's sale of the dollar is not dependent on the macroeconomic situation, as well as the rally that we saw a couple of hours ago. Perhaps it is a bit like Maslou the words of Abraham, who said that "if the hammer - all that you have, every problem is seen as a nail." Now it is better not to take commercial decisions, as soon as possible, several key events occur, after which the investment prospects are more precise. The first meeting FOMC, then the transfer of power in Iraq, the report Tankan, the data on employment in the United States and a holiday in the U.S. (July 4). At the conclusion of the whole, we are waiting for the end of the quarter and half, that is, when managers are reviewing their investment portfolios. "

Nick Parsons, strategist Commerzbank, believes that "the traditional silence on the interest rates on the part of representatives of the Federal Reserve in advance of the meeting, as well as the lack of significant economic data could lead to a lull in the market will continue until the Fed announcement of the decision. On the market not expected events that could change the expectations for interest rates. The dominant effect on the dollar continues to factor in interest rates. " Given the unlikely appreciable change in expectations, "the period of relative calm in the sale of major exchange rates also looks absolutely real."

Steven Englander, Barclays Capital analyst said: "I think the players are now off the market. For example, a 200-day MA for the EUR / USD to break 14 this year again. This suggests that the market is too much uncertainty about the medium-term direction currency market. "

Mizuho Bank: "a thin summer market and the general apathy led to the total uncertainty. Euro / dollar is still moving in the middle of the range established in the last 4 weeks, with technical signals differently. There is nothing better to do than to do something" .

Well, better late than never. And you can have and in fact, confused, took into account whether the market is already raising rates, and how, and whether he took into account the fact that he had already taken account of this increase, and has taken into account, that we have taken into account, etc. etc. Sometimes when you do not really objective reason to draw conclusions, it is better to say: I do not know. There will be real and not fictitious reasons - and the findings would be consistent with the reality.

By the time this issue of the newspaper will print all the events listed in the comments of Mark Chandler, ending with the Independence Day in the U.S., already occur. And then we really will be a chance that the trend will appear. And, perhaps, the period of uncertainty and apathy in the market has already been completed. Perhaps this will take a little more time. As stated in another good book - of course, on the other, far more significant about the - wait, watch, for they did not know the hour, when will happen. And this is so obviously and clearly, that any doubt (in the direction of the trend) will take.

On a similar add: not provoronte. Because it is possible to say that it is such a long period of calm, when everything is already tired, and almost impossible to sell wisely (the last time this was the autumn of 2001), are replaced by strong and well-directed trends. Then neither honey, nor the acorns do not need. Slonopotamy poskachut entire herds, and pit themselves vyroyut, and the land it with pleasure. As in the past, and the year before last, and at the beginning of this. Or do not know how Slonopotamy, but the wait will surely be.

And yet, in conclusion, a useful excerpt from the "Tao Pooh." Slightly adapted by me to work at Forex:

Why are (the market) is doing what he does? You do not know? And we do not know. And no one knows. Science likes to swagger and act intelligently, nakleivaya all labels, but if priglyadetsya, it becomes clear that they will not say anything definite. "RSI?" "The mood?" Nothing, except for superficial reasons. "Why do birds fly south for the winter?" Scientist: "Instinct." It means: "We do not know." The point is that actually we do not need to know this. We do not need to identify such short-sighted science, which looks at the world through a microscope, looking for answers, which never will be, but just get new questions. We do not need to play in the abstract theory by asking unnecessary questions and get answers pointless. What we really need - is to understand the internal nature (the market) and to interact with things (exchange rates), they are.

Pushkaryov Peter
Financial Adviser TeleTRADE
"Alien Money