How to insert subliminal

Brett N. Stinberger - Doctor of Philosophy and Professor of Psychiatry at the Medical University in Syracuse, NY. New York. He is also an active trader and writes articles on market psychology. The author of the book «Psychology trade», 2003. Doctor Stinberger published over 50 articles on short-term approaches to behavioral change for traders.

In a recent study published in the «New York Times» David Leonhadtom proposed an interesting analysis of how athletes are able to take difficult decisions in fractions of seconds.

Let's look at some examples:

• The player who discourage the ball in baseball, should discourage the filing, thrown at speeds over 80 miles per hour. Filing is sent directly to him in the head. If it is twisted the ball, the filing may be far to strike. In this case, to discourage the player to swing from side to side, standing firmly at the feet. If this is a direct «fast ball», then the ball into the player and hurt him badly. For a few moments, discourage the player must evaluate many factors to decide whether to stay in his area and discourage sway or bend, and defend itself. The speed and rotation of the ball, making the movement of the hand, making knowledge of the style - everything must be taken into account when deciding that much faster than is possible in the conscious level.

• Colonel John Boyd studied the behavior of the best military fighter pilot, and came to the conclusion that during the fighting with the enemy planes, they take difficult decisions in a matter of seconds. He described the decision as an observation, orientation, decision and action (NORD) and was convinced that the key to the training of pilots is to accelerate NORD elements, so that pilots can respond more quickly and accurately than their opponents. Being himself a pilot-class, Boyd was known that he could start with the uncomfortable position in the air and being behind a driver who threw him a call within 13 seconds - a challenge, obviously, it will never skip.

What is interesting for us, these examples? Those that experienced singer is faced with a high degree of uncertainty. There is no way to predict in advance whether to throw a player in baseball feeding one type of filing or the other, and there is no way to expect the following actions by the enemy in the air. Once the appropriate situation arises, as there is no opportunity for calm, rational reflection on the situation. Subconscious to assess the baseline factors and take the best possible solution before going on any conscious reasoning.

How can that be?

Here is an excerpt from an article in the «New York Times», which describes a recent study:
Each participant experiment sat down and put his hand on the table. Designing a computer screen does not allow them to see the hand. The aim was to keep the cursor, which followed the movement of hands, from one side of the screen to the goal on the other side.

Adding uncertainty, the cursor usually appeared slightly right hand, and participants saw in a quick flash of him when he was half-way when crossing the screen. Sometimes, the cursor appears as a discrete point, in other times, it was a vague cloud.
Researchers found that when the cursor is not displayed, people relied on the experience gained during training before the experiment - namely that the cursor was, on average, one centimeter to the right of the hand. When broken out of cloud, they saw it, but only in part, in the model, which followed the formula Beysa. When the cursor is flared, they have relied on it, rather than on past experience.

«Most of the decisions in our life is made in conditions of uncertainty», said Dr. Kerding. «In all these cases, prior knowledge, which we have can be very useful. If the brain is working way Beysa, the optimal use of a prior knowledge ».
There are several important points in this study:

• to make their decision to participate in the experiment were in need of a long period of study. It took hundreds of practical exercises to enable participants to make accurate predictions of the location of the cursor. This is consistent with the study «implicit study», which showed that subjects faced with complex patterns during multiple training sessions, eventually, to study these models and can make predictions based on these models is much better than it would be with a random guess. However, surprisingly, that they can not be explained by these models are a logical way or the way they make their decisions. Their study is indeed an implicit, ie is completely subconscious.

• When the subjects were faced with a new, uncertain information, which is contrary to known models, they evaluated the new information complicated way that is consistent with the mathematics Beysa. In other words, the actors have given increased importance of new information over time, re-evaluate their position the cursor, which united a new, dubious information that they learned previously. It is also compatible with the implicit study. People can handle complex information, mathematical methods, even when they are not familiar with the complex mathematics!

• When the subjects were faced with a new, specific information, which is contrary to the models studied during their training, they left their previous study and relied entirely on new data. That is, they were able to set aside their previous expectations and quickly create a new framework for decision making. This is not as easy as it might seem. People have a natural bias on the evidence that leads us to search for information that confirms our expectations and led to ignore the data that are contrary to what we believe.

• What is particularly interesting in this article is that the authors find that on the confirmation bias prevents people decide mathematically. That is, people just do not combine a new, dubious information from the old experience, as do the professionals, when they remain attached to their old expectations. This makes them too slow to respond to new data. Professionals same, thus not only able to take immediate, subconscious decision, they can also quickly review these decisions as the new data. Speed and flexibility are the signs of professionalism.
It can be very important findings for the short-term trading in this study. One of the key findings is that the distinction between intuitive controlled commerce and trade, based on the study may be much smaller than we think. Here is a remarkable conclusion that can be made on the basis of this study:

Our subconscious is a springboard for success!

When the experienced traders examined thousands of cases of intra-day behavior of prices and indicators of their subconscious to be able to identify patterns of market noise, and they can not explain how. This is - implicit study. As soon as new information comes to the market, second to second, it brings the unconscious knowledge of the old complex. For example, one or two irrelevant overall analysis of information, one or a few ticks against the position does not necessarily make you decide to leave the transaction. However, as the inadequate information is collected, it changes the assessment of an experienced trader likelihood that the transaction will succeed. The deal begins to feel not as necessary, before a trader can explain what is wrong. This internal sense is very important, and it is not only subjective intuition. This is - the result of subconscious mathematical analysis!

When an experienced trader enters new information, which is obviously contrary to his expectations (such as sudden market reaction to some economic news), the previous study goes into the background. An experienced trader speed to get out of the transaction and to review expectations, rather than wallow in his bias on the need to confirm that now is in contradiction with the data.

What prevents traders become skilled performers? If Colonel Boyd can train pilots to analyze the actions of an enemy fighter pilot and perform rapid maneuver for 13 seconds, perhaps we can learn to accurately respond to short-term market model.

So, we saw that according to the study, unconscious processing adds new information to the past to respond to changing circumstances. When the market, for example, changes its volatility, an experienced trader to join the new data with their experience, to expect that the direction of movement. It seems that the subconscious is able to perform the complex integration of new and old data to expected future events. This allows you to make an excellent performance with fast, stressful conditions, which do not allow for conscious, explicit processing.

Can such a subconscious decision to be trained? One of the articles devoted to training the elite
military officers, I found one possible model for the promotion of best execution. Perhaps we can also learn what some of the best athletes train and develop models to improve the performance of traders.

The study of sport psychology

What we know about the psychological factors that contribute to the success of the athletes? Comprehensive study shows several important components of best execution:

• setting goals - more than 500 studies of athletes show that the goal contributes to meeting a variety of short-term objectives and long-term goals. Goals that are clearly defined, achievable, but requires sufficient effort and concentration on performance, rather than the result, are most effective. There is also evidence that the combination of short-and long-term goals, as well as group and individual goals, can increase the effectiveness in achieving goals.

• Practice - the large-scale studies of athletes, as well as professionals in other fields, shows that general practice is closely linked with the development of professionalism. This is especially true in situations where there is a study of implicit, requiring the acquisition of performance skills that can not be explained logically (eg, to learn how to beat on the tennis ball). A large number of practical classes, with immediate feedback may be particularly useful for the development of necessary skills.

• stress - studies show that a moderate degree of stress helps performance, while higher tension may lead to a catastrophic decline in performance. Recent results indicate that much more important, everyone sees their own strain rather than the absolute level of physical stress.

• self - confident athlete in their ability to achieve its goal very strongly linked to actual implementation. Belief in own ability to succeed is the single most important factor of identity associated with the sporting success. Studies show that exercises that improve the self, leading to improved sports performance, even when they are connected only with thou exercises, rather than with actual sports training.

• Mentor - recent studies show that the confidence mentor (coach) significantly and positively correlated with improvement in the performance of their athletes. Differences in style of training is also reasonably affect the outcome of sports, primarily through effects on the motivation of athlete.

How these different findings relate to research on the subconscious study?
The likely explanation is that the focused, intensive training with quick feedback, not only shapes the skills, but also increases in athletes self-confidence. This allows professional athletes to use the tension to facilitate, rather than obstacles to the execution, because the stress they are not considered alarming. The role of the coach is not so much how to teach the skills - because the skills of the implicit, but rather to create an environment in which skills can be maximized. This includes motivation, but also the conditions related to the efficiency of practical training.

It is also worth noting that much of this learning occurs in the command environment, including sports teams, military units and the business environment. Command environment helps with motivation, creating a favorable environment for learning, but also allows participants to learn from each other, watching the same yourself. The friendly competition between the teams also serve as preparation for real competition, zatachivaya skills in realistic terms of performance.

Conclusion

The success with which a trader can learn to read changing market behavior may be related to the quality and intensity of training, which he has made. Each study implicit study shows that require a lot of intensive training before an individual develops the necessary skills in this task. Most traders have failed, as I suspect, because they never gain the necessary number of intensive training necessary for the development of underlying skills. Without a command environment to simulate the development of skills and mentors to provide assistance to targeted training, the majority of individual traders will never be able to develop self-confidence necessary to withstand the inevitable periods of losses. This is particularly problematic for traders, trade on a partial basis, which may be short of intensive practice required for the skill, simply due to lack of time to understand market behavior, develop skills and use of performance feedback.

While many market by concentrating on the development of new indicators and methods for analyzing market data, it is possible that the most promising direction for improving the results of trade are the tools and technologies that motivate the study and increased its intensity.

Brett Stinberger
www.brettsteenbarger.com