Monday, March 2, 2009

History of the Russian currency market


... On behalf of direct participants of the events

Igor G. Doronin. He graduated from the Monetary MGIMO office in 1965, worked at the Market Institute of the Ministry of Foreign Trade. He was engaged in monetary and financial problems of foreign countries and the USSR. Since 1984 he has worked in IMEMO, participated in the formulation of monetary management mechanism foreign economic relations. From 1993 to 2002 he worked at MICEX as an adviser. From 2002 to present Senior researcher IMEMO RAS.

What began with the currency market in Russia?

The beginning of change in the management of monetary and financial relations goes back to the beginning of the process of restructuring in the mid 80-ies. Then talk about the market was not. The challenge was to improve the calculations of foreign trade, enterprises interested in exporting their products to combat the "scourge of the import, move away from commodity-oriented export. And the improvement to be implemented within the planned operating system and command control systems.

The situation in foreign trade at the time it became alarmingly disturbing. Imports grew rapidly themes outpacing exports. Shops are increasingly purchased on credit. Growing public debt. Western firms have become the cup to deny credit. There was a feeling that the country is close to financial bankruptcy. You had to do something.

Initially, to encourage exports and curb imports of foreign exchange rates have been coined. Then currency allocations. But all these changes have not infringed on the principle of targets in foreign trade, which was the main factor in the imbalance in trade. They spoke only 5 - 10% of the foreign trade turnover of the USSR.

The prototype for the future of the foreign exchange market became Vneshekonom bank auctions the USSR, and the subject of trade were the relatively paltry sum of foreign currency payments, which companies can keep in their possession. This trade did not do the weather. Lion's portion of the currency has continued to transfer the state under the plan.

Is it not clear then, that for the foreign exchange market should have been to allow businesses to sell foreign exchange earnings in the market, as importers buy it on the course, which emerge on the market?

Of course, it is clear. Moreover, already in 1990 the idea of monetary exchange. But by then the moment was lost. Almost all currency received from exports was to pay off the debt the state. Trading was nothing.

And, as was found out of the situation?

In December 1991 the USSR ceased to exist. At the same time, it meant bankruptcy and its external obligations. Russia, as is known, became the legal successor of the external debt of the USSR. Under the obligation to repay the debts of the Soviet Union Russia and the West agreed to the foreign exchange market to delay repayment of external obligations of Russia. So the opportunity to trade currency.

Start of work on the formation of the Russian currency market put the Decree of the President of November 15, 1991 on the liberalization of foreign trade activities in the territory of the RSFSR. " It contains revolutionary for its time position. In particular, banks authorized to conduct foreign exchange transactions, were allowed to open foreign currency accounts to all legal and natural persons. Exchange rate to foreign currencies to emerge on the basis of supply and demand at auctions, exchanges, the interbank market, with buying and selling of currency by commercial banks and other legal entities and citizens. With this decree the Russian ruble began to possess qualities of internal convertibility, which was a prerequisite for the emergence of the domestic currency market.

Why the emergence of the foreign exchange market in Russia is linked with the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange?

At first, the element of the foreign exchange market was a major threat. Then a lot of brokerage companies operating in various commodity exchanges are ready to serve foreign exchange operations of enterprises and organizations. If you recall, almost every shop and stall currency bought and sold, along with soda water.

The overriding need of the time was to streamline and organize the trade exchange. The creation of the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange in January 1992 and has been organizing such a beginning. Market from the very beginning acted as an organizer of trade exchange between banks.

As a result of stock trades to determine a single official exchange rate of ruble to the dollar, on which banks are calculated in business and on which the fixed exchange rates. Clear rules for bidding on the stock exchange to ensure the transparency of the process of forming the ruble, which was needed as the Central Bank of Russia, and the banks who participated in the auction.

At that time, stock trading, without exaggeration, was a symbol of the transition to a market economy. They go ... Yes, yes, as in the theater! Tenders must be clearly be carried out not only technologically, but also a true movement of hands, brace up the phrase into the microphone, prompt a smile. It was art, which at that time owned the exchange broker Alexei Mamontov, now president of the Moscow Interbank Currency Association.

Press and television require accreditation to bid. It was in that look and what to write. All compared with western counterparts. We pride ourselves on: now we are. Traders - representatives of commercial banks were going to trade hall. In the MICEX trading system prior to bidding "upload" currency for the sale and purchase of currency for rubles. So by the beginning of the trading was well known, as proposed currency for sale and how much currency you want to buy. Typically, the demand always exceeds supply. Bring into balance the demand and supply could be due to the strengthening of the dollar. With the gradual growth of dollar traders, in consultation with the leadership of the bank (kept us on the phone) to add a currency for sale, and bids and shot. Once achieved equilibrium exchange broker said - "fixing, gentlemen." Exchange equilibrium becomes official dollar before the next auction. How significant was the difference between supply and demand, the higher the dollar rose, the longest lasted for bidding, the more arts and skills required of course a broker.

Introduced the principle of mandatory sales of export currency earnings of at Interbank Currency Exchange allowed the Central Bank of Russia to control the sale of currency by banks and ensure liquidity in the foreign exchange market.

Participation of the Central Bank in the Interbank market as a buyer and a seller allowed to smooth fluctuations in currency exchange rate to foreign currencies.

What do you think the changes have occurred in the exchange currency market since its inception?

The current market is not similar to that which existed in the early years of its establishment. First, a market characterized by high volatility. Course rublyastremitelno decline. The main reason was persistent fiscal deficits, which require significant emissions. As a result, demand for the currency is constantly exceeding supply. The Central Bank due to extremely low levels of foreign reserves had not been able to have an appreciable effect on the dynamics of the course. Memorable event in the exchange currency market have become so-called "black Tuesday" in October 1994 and August 1998, accompanied by a significant fall of the ruble to the dollar.

The situation in the market opposite to that which existed at the time - offer the currency in the market exceeds demand. Reduce inflation. Confidence in the ruble grew. New tools for embedding free ruble funds. Became more profitable to invest ruble funds in shares and bonds of companies, to keep funds in rubles in bank deposits. Increase confidence in banks.

Secondly, the current foreign exchange market more liberal. The requirement established by the compulsory sale of export proceeds in foreign currency exchange. Now it can be sold in the interbank market. Moreover, the lowered standard of compulsory sale. If earlier it was 50%, now - 30%, and in the future are invited to abandon the compulsory sale.

The third change is exchange. In fact the modern market - a powerful server, software, communication links that connect remote locations to the trading server and the people who serve this technical complex. Passed away last bazaar, where traders are banks. It replaced the server, and traders - remote workstations located in the offices of the banks-participants of the foreign exchange market. Technology has changed auctions. Instead of fixing bid being in the double auction. Exhibited cross-application for the purchase and sale and in the case of convergence rates and volumes on the purchase and sale, the transaction is automatically. Based on the weighted average rate chopping-up of transactions was determined by the official rate.

Changes in the market place not by themselves. They are the result of policy formulation in which the active participation of the former General Director of MICEX AV Zakharov and Exchange Board Chairman A. Potemkin.

How important the role of stock exchange market at the present time?

I think the stock exchange trading will retain its value for a long time. They will remain an important, unique feature of the Russian currency market. With the latest technologies we have a national stock exchange market. The MICEX trading system combines regional currency exchanges in St. Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Rostov-on-Don, Vladivostok, Ekaterinburg, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara in a single trading system. Stock trades are carried out simultaneously, in real time in all markets simultaneously. This is something that is not available to any Russian commercial banks. Applying the latest technology has enabled a significant speed up the calculations, minimize risk and reduce fees for ongoing operations, which expand the bidders.

Finally, the Russian interbank market perform not only trade currency, and trading floors have become universal. They are traded government securities, equities and corporate bonds. This trade is conducted simultaneously in all exchanges within a single trading session.

What are the prospects for the Russian currency market?

The market involves competition. On the currency market, competing currencies, financial institutions, trade and payment systems. Liberalization and technological progress will exacerbate competition.

However, the position of any currency in the market are determined by monetary authorities pursued fiscal and monetary policies. From it depended the credibility of the stability of the currency and its rate relative to other currencies. Competition leads to weaker currencies in the market pushed more powerful not only in international payments, but also nationally. Accordingly, changing the structure of foreign exchange turnover in the market, changing the ratio of rates quoted currencies.

Another factor in the development of the foreign exchange market is the integration of various segments of financial markets. Operations of currency exchange market is increasingly linked to the overflows of capital between countries, investments in various financial instruments. Investment companies, pension funds, insurance companies form a diversified portfolio of securities, change their structure depending on the risk, profitability, prospects for the movement of currencies, which are expressed in these instruments. The attractiveness of investment in financial instruments depends on the level of development of the domestic financial market, the quality of the market, the protection of investors' rights, as well as the stability of the currency.

Given the prevailing global trends we can say that the future of Russian foreign exchange market will depend on how reasonable and balanced would be fiscal and monetary policy of the Russian authorities how it will ensure the credibility of the Russian ruble, both domestically and abroad. Finally, it is important to the position of the ruble to the dynamics of the Russian financial market, the growth of confidence in financial institutions market, broadening the range of traded financial instruments protecting the rights of investors in the financial market.



Alien Money

No comments: