Morning comment on stock market from June 2, 2009
Index zeleneet deposit glitters ...
Russia
Domestic stock market once again updated the records of the year: RTS index rose by 7,34%, MICEX index rose by 7.37% (a long time there was no such consensus among key Russian indicators). Šifra the summer of 2009: «Russian indexes show better results in the world», - I have heard during the summer of 2008, however, she sounded a bit different: «Russia - a quiet haven».
Europe
Indices of the New World have grown by an average of 2.9%, on a wave of optimism, which comes from the commodity markets and is supported by analysts claiming that the end of the crisis and the recession (although I would not confuse these concepts) is not far off. Regarding the statistics, you can nod in the direction of business activity index, which also reflects the emotional rather optimistic, which is typical of the «human sentiment index» in the current period.
America
Indices of the New World increased by 2,6-3,1%, - the special delight of the investor is bankrupt General Motors (apparently on the principle: All right, otmuchilis) and exclusion of papers presented by car manufacturers and Citigroup from the calculation of index Dow. However, in the case of GM seriously, the article 11 it is a failure: old debts written off, inefficient ownership changed (but not the management!), Core assets largely preserved, the brand remains the same, staff and cut unprofitable units and sold off, -- is not a reason to be optimistic and start-up with «scratch».
Raw materials
Industrial metals on the London bid to update the records of the year - thrifty China to actively convert the debt into cash American goods plus the inflation of assets denominated in U.S. dollars makes a «dirty work».
Gold fall slightly below $ 980, with fluctuations in the metal is very clearly tied to a change in the index value of the dollar: «spike» down to the dollar immediately translates into «shipom» up on gold, and vice versa.
Oil also updated the maximums of the year: Brent futures traded on the mark about $ 67.75, WTI futures for the brand is just above $ 68.25, - say that because of demand from China. It is noteworthy that the Chinese do not consume the entire amount purchased hydrocarbons, and dump them into the strategic reserve, which ultimately plays against the value of the demand (but who is when stopped?).
Today
At 12-30 (Moscow time) is published index of business activity in the construction sector, the UK, in the 18-00 (Moscow time) went on outstanding transactions by selling real estate in the United States - statistics refers precisely to the sector, which continues to demonstrate against the background of global recession optimism and euphoria.
Russian companies are represented by «SITRONICS» and NLMK are accountable to the standard US GAAP for the first quarter of 2009. U «RusGidro» will start the procedure for additional emissions totaling 16 billion rubles: accommodated shares on the open subscription for 1 ruble each, plus a company's shareholders as of October 8, 2008 there 20% discount, which could eventually be an interesting investment in long term.
Forecast
I expect the neutral start bidding on the Russian stock market, because prices of raw materials and the dynamics of foreign stock exchanges, although buyers should evaluate the behavior rather psychologist - I have the same degree in this specialization sadly lacking.
The idea is, after yesterday's output up, today the bulk of the participants will wait rollback down, but to say he can be supported rather difficult: the factors forcing quotes to grow, has not happened. In principle, the market may fall even against rising oil, again, remembering last year, but this requires a large number of non-residents, who have only just come to Russia, and the negative trend in the western areas, which do not precisely observed.
It is felt that active yesterday closed a short position in the major players (in fact, a quasi-short processed through repo transactions), but I honestly believed that they have closed or are not global. However, if we look at changes in the number of open positions in futures, their reduction yesterday and late last week could be a sign of the final capitulation «bear».
Index went far beyond the boundaries of their medium-range: I believe that values must come back into the framework of an established trend, because of extreme fluctuations, like yesterday, as a rule the market are not welcome. Fans «Fibonacci numbers» can be seen approaching the MICEX index to the 50% th level of correction for the trend to 1250 points.
Index zeleneet deposit glitters ...
Russia
Domestic stock market once again updated the records of the year: RTS index rose by 7,34%, MICEX index rose by 7.37% (a long time there was no such consensus among key Russian indicators). Šifra the summer of 2009: «Russian indexes show better results in the world», - I have heard during the summer of 2008, however, she sounded a bit different: «Russia - a quiet haven».
Europe
Indices of the New World have grown by an average of 2.9%, on a wave of optimism, which comes from the commodity markets and is supported by analysts claiming that the end of the crisis and the recession (although I would not confuse these concepts) is not far off. Regarding the statistics, you can nod in the direction of business activity index, which also reflects the emotional rather optimistic, which is typical of the «human sentiment index» in the current period.
America
Indices of the New World increased by 2,6-3,1%, - the special delight of the investor is bankrupt General Motors (apparently on the principle: All right, otmuchilis) and exclusion of papers presented by car manufacturers and Citigroup from the calculation of index Dow. However, in the case of GM seriously, the article 11 it is a failure: old debts written off, inefficient ownership changed (but not the management!), Core assets largely preserved, the brand remains the same, staff and cut unprofitable units and sold off, -- is not a reason to be optimistic and start-up with «scratch».
Raw materials
Industrial metals on the London bid to update the records of the year - thrifty China to actively convert the debt into cash American goods plus the inflation of assets denominated in U.S. dollars makes a «dirty work».
Gold fall slightly below $ 980, with fluctuations in the metal is very clearly tied to a change in the index value of the dollar: «spike» down to the dollar immediately translates into «shipom» up on gold, and vice versa.
Oil also updated the maximums of the year: Brent futures traded on the mark about $ 67.75, WTI futures for the brand is just above $ 68.25, - say that because of demand from China. It is noteworthy that the Chinese do not consume the entire amount purchased hydrocarbons, and dump them into the strategic reserve, which ultimately plays against the value of the demand (but who is when stopped?).
Today
At 12-30 (Moscow time) is published index of business activity in the construction sector, the UK, in the 18-00 (Moscow time) went on outstanding transactions by selling real estate in the United States - statistics refers precisely to the sector, which continues to demonstrate against the background of global recession optimism and euphoria.
Russian companies are represented by «SITRONICS» and NLMK are accountable to the standard US GAAP for the first quarter of 2009. U «RusGidro» will start the procedure for additional emissions totaling 16 billion rubles: accommodated shares on the open subscription for 1 ruble each, plus a company's shareholders as of October 8, 2008 there 20% discount, which could eventually be an interesting investment in long term.
Forecast
I expect the neutral start bidding on the Russian stock market, because prices of raw materials and the dynamics of foreign stock exchanges, although buyers should evaluate the behavior rather psychologist - I have the same degree in this specialization sadly lacking.
The idea is, after yesterday's output up, today the bulk of the participants will wait rollback down, but to say he can be supported rather difficult: the factors forcing quotes to grow, has not happened. In principle, the market may fall even against rising oil, again, remembering last year, but this requires a large number of non-residents, who have only just come to Russia, and the negative trend in the western areas, which do not precisely observed.
It is felt that active yesterday closed a short position in the major players (in fact, a quasi-short processed through repo transactions), but I honestly believed that they have closed or are not global. However, if we look at changes in the number of open positions in futures, their reduction yesterday and late last week could be a sign of the final capitulation «bear».
Index went far beyond the boundaries of their medium-range: I believe that values must come back into the framework of an established trend, because of extreme fluctuations, like yesterday, as a rule the market are not welcome. Fans «Fibonacci numbers» can be seen approaching the MICEX index to the 50% th level of correction for the trend to 1250 points.
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