Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Finance-Invest: On Tuesday at the opening will see the price gap in the top 0.5%

The Russian stock market on the first day of summer has accelerated the pace of recovery.

RTS took off at 7.34% to 1167.42 points. MICEX index closed at the mark in 1206 items, showing a similar increase (+7.37%). Trading volume was recorded at the maximum value from last May. Futures on the RTS index has chosen a moderate contango (+8.6 Clause of the close of spot-market).

The desired outcome of tenders to boost Wall Street on Friday, when the last hour of the session «bull» put on the scapula «bear» spread at the beginning of the week on all the stock area of peace, that the inertia of the day and not lost in the course. Contributed to this a heap of positive macroeconomic data, which made nebespochvennoy idea that the world economy is likely to have reached its bottom.

So on Monday morning was better than forecasts PMI index of business sentiment for China's manufacturing sector, followed by followed by a review of initial assessments to improve the similar indicators in the euro zone and Britain. The U.S. ISM index has also continued to recover in value, with new orders subindeks cherished already exceeded the level of 50%. Other macroeconomic data are also pleased the market players. Construction costs and statistics on personal income and expenses were also better than market expectations. And the fact that from the implementation of a package of incentives money Americans sent to zanachki, rather than the purchase of goods, which could delay the recovery of key sectors of the U.S. economy -- Demand from consumers, with the prevailing market sentiment was not critical. All the expected bankruptcy of GM, which became in the course of bidding a fait accompli, despite the fact that will have long repercussions on the real economy, financial markets has a positive effect, as has finally been stopped «callosity eyes» the improving external background.

Unfolding draft to the risk of rising inflationary expectations and continued to weaken the U.S. dollar, which on a background of favorable data on activity in the manufacturing sector, primarily, of course, China is more than favorable influence on the quotations of raw materials, which were established several new maximum levels . In particular, prices of oil WTI class opened another trading week higher than the previous peak level from the beginning of the year ($ 66.5/barr.), And the day had already reached the level of $ 68.3/barr. That little strip of up to $ cherished 70/barr.

Of course, that in the current conjuncture of the Russian stock market should only expect growth. Index MICEX opened with an impressive gepom up and through the power purchases in the first few minutes of trades to the same broken before divergence on daily and weekly schedules. This was a sign of market forces and prevented the grounds for the implementation of the technical correction in the short term. Day of the stock market moving up, that given the unchanged external indicators do not provoke the market at a record profit, the result of what had become quite high at the close results.

growth rate showed ordinary paper Sberbank (+17.56%) (preferential increase in value at 9.82%), due to a number of factors. So, first, the expectations of world economic recovery a positive impact especially on the shares of banks, and secondly, the shares of Sberbank is now the most liquid instrument of the Russian stock market. The third point was the victory of the Savings Bank in consortium Magna in the struggle for possession of concern Opel / Vauxhall, which was positively received by market participants in mind the low price of the asset. The fact that the Savings Bank for this purchase is non-investment, more than offset by the fact that operational management will be implemented by Magna, a bank, in fact, address the role of portfolio investors, which in the case of the revitalization of the car market, could bring him a considerable profit. Shares VTB at the dynamics which affected only the first of these factors have increased in value only at 8.97%, the sector as a whole Micex FNL «potyazhelel» at 9.92%.

Beneficiary of the signs of improvement in the metallurgical industry in China has become a sector (Micex M & M +6.49%), with a predominance of purchases in shares of steel. Manufacturers of precious metals and among opponents and against the backdrop of the market as a whole looked at as outsiders. Intent Polimetall take market conditions and to conduct additional issue of shares is a positive development, as well as the funds will go to the activity in the area of M & A and this will increase the liquidity of the shares, but at the last auction in focus was watering the percentage of current minority that has shares Polimetall increase only 0.38% .

Shares of oil and gas sector (Micex O & G +5.67%), which had previously been so aggressively entered, ceded leadership to other market segments. Here is the paper to Gazprom, went up by 7.52% against the backdrop of statements by vice-chairman Valery Golubev, who had made it clear that the gas monopoly will be to attempt in one form or another to reduce the effect of increasing the planned NDPI gas.

Looking at today's market:

Published macroeconomic statistics and the positive mood in all the world's stock exchanges have the U.S. stock indices in order to enhance and extend the series closer to the maximum marks the beginning of the year (S & P 500 +2.58%). Renewed growth in returns of treasury bonds will not be confused bulls cards. Futures on the U.S. indices on Tuesday morning, slightly down (S & P 500 -0.11%).

Asian stock indices (MSCI Asia Pacific +1.1%) are in positive territory, otygryvaya of the macroeconomic data, which were promulgated after the closing of the stock of sites in the region, as well as the positive trends in the commodity markets. Prices for WTI crude oil varieties recoil of the resistance in the $ 68.5/barr. But are higher than those values, when the Russian stock market closed.

Thus, on Tuesday at the opening will see the price gap in the top 0.5%. The absence of important macroeconomic data -- only 18-00 MSC are known to uncompleted transactions for the sale of housing, will push many players to record profits, which may contribute to the transition dynamics of the market in a lateral trend, or give rise to correction to the growth of the previous three days. Note that EBV may relieve part of the portfolio to buy the bank Kit Finance 10% package of shares Rostelekom, may in this case, for the most cautious market participants to speak trigger.

In general, the signs of turning the market has not yet been traced, that does not give incentives for aggressive out of the securities. However, approaching oil prices and stock indexes to significant peak increases the risk of investors who have not yet been planned at least to some extent to record profits.

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