Monday, June 15, 2009

IR IE Ty Invest: tangible pressure on the market «shorts» are not brought

Substantial pressure on the market «shorts» are not brought

On Monday, our stock market speculators have decided to mark Day postprazdnichny impact falling. Day became clear that the whole run-down rate limit of 3-5% loss in view of the fact that our colleagues in Western markets have not yet suffered from the excess of negative emotions. It seems, therefore, major losses on MICEX today have the most liquid securities, which are already allowed to «shorts».

It happened today coincided that lifting the ban on short positions, we pass the reduction in oil prices (Brent $ 69,9 / bbl; -1.3%) and futures on U.S. indices (S & P -1,15%). European stock indexes today are in heart, where the leaders of decline were shares of commodity companies.

Day, a great pressure on the market by the vendors are not yet visible, as well as the opening of speculative «mild» sales possible only if the quotation does not fall more than 3% to the closing price the previous day. Theoretically, the market could lose by 3% for each session. But it is hardly yet possible, because we need the prices in the oil market and the flight of capital to risk assets, and that there is no strong «strashilki».

This afternoon, the price of Brent crude oil dived below $ 70/barr. I think that long-term traffic down here, we do not see. A local decline is just a step back to gather strength before a new jump up toward $ 75/barr.

Given the momentum of our market over the past week, we still prefer to think about preservation strategies for the non-aggressive buying in second-tier securities. Here we are currently providing TMK shares, RusGidro, Transneft, Uralkali.

In the case of shares in steel companies today, the most stable position of the paper MMK (-1.1%) after increasing the forecast price for it with $ 0.51 to $ 0.58 and the recommendation for the purchase of Citi.

I think that before the resumption of trading activity in our tradition to wait until after the start of the trading in the States. It is expected to start a negative session. Nevertheless, I think that our indices of the evening will be able to partially reverse the lost ground.

Potavin Alexander

Principal Analyst IR "ITinvest"

(495) 933-32-32 ext. 226

potavin@iqi.ru

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