The stability of the flow of foreign capital in the United States again threatened

yesterday's data again showed that long-term prospects for the dollar is not enviable. The total inflow of portfolio capital in the United States in April, came at the level of -53.2 billion dollars This is the 3rd month of this year, when the inflow is negative (in January, it was -144 billion dollars in February to $ -90.0 billion March +25.0 billion). The last time such a series (three months the total outflow in 5 months) was observed in 2008, just before the collapse of Euro 1.60 to 1.23. That is, when the U.S. reaction to the threat of loss of capital inflows has resulted in the awesome growth of the dollar (through the financial crisis). Thus, at some time the problem of confidence in the dollar has been resolved. However, as we have seen, this action only delayed the outcome, but does not solve the problem. Confidence in the dollar is still undermined. Today, Adviser to the President of the Russian Federation Arkady Dvorkovich before the opening of the first summit BRIC announced that Brazil, Russia, India and China are considering the purchase of government obligations to each other for the formation and maintenance of reserves from the dollar. As we know, this is not the first statement in that kind in the world, is considering similar measures, and the Gulf states and Asian countries. At this time can hardly be expected to re-attempt to shock the same methods as in the past year, to extend the investment attractiveness of the dollar, so in this and there is no need. Actually, last year's rally in favor of the dollar had to meet the objectives set by the organizers of it. We continue to expect large-scale collapse of the dollar this summer (up to 1.53 and above), although in June, is likely to be an attempt to delay the movement, even though we expected a negative for the U.S. FOMC decision of 24 June (we are waiting for a quantitative increase in mitigation ). Actually, the past of a correction to 1.4350 euro-dollar, we believe, is intended to provide space for the inevitable negative reaction of the market on this news for the dollar. For example, if the euro-dollar will meet June 24 in the region of 1.37-1.38, it is to the 1.42-1.43 movement will be stopped and "couples" will be dropped. That will allow then to 1.37-1.43 in the corridor (approximately), yet another wave of movement to the bottom border and shoot down short-term expectations of the fall of the dollar. Therefore, we assume that the euro will be kept low until the Fed meeting. With regard to the need to mitigate the very fact of quantification, then, we believe that before 24 June will be another unfortunate enough data to justify the act, contrary to what was recently said Leyker. So, yesterday, a noticeable drop in the expectations index showed industrial Fed of New York. Actually, it is not clear why this and other industry indexes Fed in recent months showed growth of optimism, if leaving the U.S. today, industrial production for May is expected to decline by 1%.

With regard to the local picture is showing the night at least 1.3746, the euro went up to the correction. In the morning one could see clear to the purchase volume and control the market. Then at 13.00, came unexpectedly good index ZEW, but sold the Euro against the news, which explains the full meaning of the last correction. We expect that the euro will continue selling until the market is not a foot fault, did not work yesterday (as we wrote the foot area located below 1.38). There continues to expect to reduce support for the downward channel formed in the area of 1.3650.



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