Tuesday, June 9, 2009

GC "Alor": Ideas for no growth, nor for the fall is not, perhaps it's time to switch to the «second wave»

Ideas for either growth or for the fall is not, perhaps it's time to switch to the «second wave» - Anna Lyukanova, CC «ALOR»

The Russian stock market demonstrated bezydeynye auction at low revs have a second session in succession. At the opening of the market played off the growth of quotations of oil after the closure of local sites before, and the result came in, plus indexes. Then, in the absence of signals from outside investors chose to lock the profit. Macro-economic statistics from Germany supported the «bear». In the second half of the session oil again rushed to a level of $ 70 per barrel, but this fact was ignored members of the Russian stock market.

MICEX Index has continued to move in an upward channel formed short, to the upper boundary of Perforation of which requires strong signals from the external market. While virtually all the world sites occurs in the middle formed by the consolidation of short-term channel. Index S & P 500 was consolidated in the channel 930 - 950 points, quotes, oil - in the corridor of $ 67 - $ 70 per barrel. By the end of today's session, oil is unlikely to probet level of $ 70 per barrel, given the expectation of tomorrow's publication of data on oil and oil products in the United States. Formation of the positions for tomorrow - risky because the market is clearly not available, buyers who supported the market during the previous sessions.

Session tomorrow is going to be more intense in terms of makrostatistiki. Start the session on the tradition set the outcome of trades in the U.S., but, in general, the movement on the MICEX will be limited to the bottom-up channel, the upper limit of which is just above 1150 points, and the bottom - in the region of 1100 points. Further evolution will be determined by statistics from the UK, in particular, data on industrial production. In the second half of the session on the dynamics will be influenced by data from the U.S. - trade balance, and - at the finish of the trading - the traditional data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products.

The papers of Russian oil and gas sector following the market. The majority of the shares continued to consolidate in the mid-back lanes, waiting for further guidance. Promotions «Gazprom» otygryvayut clearly a technical level. In particular, during today's session rebound occurred on the level of 21-day rolling, lying at the level of EUR 175.2. Resistance re-mark made 180 rubles. In the case of positive signals from the market of raw materials, in particular, the quotations of Perforation of oil $ 70 a barrel, there is an attempt to test in the coming session of the upper border of the short-term ascending channel in the vicinity of 189 rubles.

Shares of banking sector as a whole demonstrate obscherynochnuyu dynamics. Better the market shares of the Savings Bank are, in spite of the information on the possible sale of the securities in the future, the bank, which was acquired VEBom. Shares continued to consolidate below the 50%-term correction of Fibonacci.

Promotions «first echelon» reached fairly high levels, and the reasons for the continuation of growth yet, so investors have to look to the paper «second-line», as evidenced by changes in advance, and the RTS-2 index, an increase that exceeds the percentage rate of growth RTS index. Demand are still stocks of energy, and, technically, the growth potential of their remains. Therefore, a short «energy idea» can give good results.

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