Russia
Indicators of the state of the Russian stock market yesterday ended differently: RTS index rose by 0,79%, MICEX index fell by 0.58%. The volume of trades on the RTS amounted to $ 3.6 billion, of which term the market had $ 2.3 billion, the volume of trades on the MICEX Stock Exchange Section of 202.5 billion rubles, if you look at the turnover in the index, then 49, 9 billion.
The electricity sector is still in Tabor investors, besides namedni some investment companies have revised their forecasts for the sector upwards. The main driver - the next stage of liberalization. Personally for me the win in the short term from the transition to open market perception - the market price is below the regulated kilowatt rates. With regard to long-term prospects, it is also not clear and much depends on such factors as the recovery of demand from the industry (not that it will take V-shaped appearance), the introduction of new capacity (investment programs, there is no clarity to the still) emerging major consumer shift to its own generating capacity (for fear of price hikes, many businesses are building their own power), etc.
Europe
Indices of the Old World have increased on average by 0.5% due to economic statistics from Germany (I personally suggested to the statistics that goes past, do not pay attention), and a statement from Paul Krugman about the beginning of the end of a recession in the world economy this autumn. More than anything the other to justify the optimism I have not, well, if only to once again do not remember about the increase in the number of issued U.S. who burned their hands to their owners.
America
Indices of the New World in general, have increased by 0-1% against the backdrop of positive developments in the sector of high technology (mostly positive forecasts from Texas Instruments), and the news that the U.S. Treasury has authorized the return of ten banks, government loans. Again, you can remember about the previously mentioned statement by Paul Krugman on the near end of a recession.
Raw materials, currency, etc.
Industrial metals on the London bid again renewed the annual maxima (ie the dynamics of the composite index Exchange LME).
Gold soared to $ 960 on a background of falling U.S. dollar index value - investors are waiting for specific comments from the Fed about future monetary policy, even talk of a possible rate hike at the next meeting (held on 24 June). If you recall the Fed inaction and indecisiveness in the first half of 2007 and in mid-2008, when the stakes simply be kept at one level, I would not expect such a quick response agencies. Rather FOMC will again have to pull up to the last, and then begins a marathon with occasional jumps to 0.5 and 0.75 percentage points in overtime and the convening of extraordinary meetings.
Baltic Dry Index continued its correctional movement - the excitement surrounding the supply in China has fallen, and shipowners in the region podtyanuli additional tonnage than balanced supply of and demand for maritime transport.
Oil has updated an annual maximum: to mark WTI futures traded slightly above $ 70.75, Brent futures for the brand is just above $ 70.25 (ie contracts in July, August naturally higher - $ 71.5 and $ 71 respectively). Thank you for your growth should say EIA, which revised its forecast of average prices. If the EIA appeals to fundamental factors, the position of the agency is not quite clear: the commercial and strategic oil reserves in the world growing up, hang out on the tanker fleet in the seas as a floating oil (small amount, only 31.5 million barrels, but is growing all the time, t . f. dynamics seen), the OPEC quotas are not reduced - perhaps only Nigerian rebels did not give the oil to relax. But if the EIA is based on the direction of cash flow, all the logical - the mass of cheap dollars belly at all, without exception, a new speculative bubble markets.
Statistics and Reporting
At 12-30 (Moscow time), go on industrial production in the UK, 16-30 (Moscow time) published by the U.S. trade balance in the 18-30 (Moscow time) information on oil and petroleum products (I believe that the reserves will grow, but not sure that the quotations of oil futures will react to this fact, even the sake of decorum, too emotional and irrational to the market in recent times) in 22-00 (Moscow time) published «beige book» and balance the federal budget dollars.
Forecast
I look forward to the start of the trading on the Russian stock market to gap up on 1,5-2%, reflecting a positive external background and expensive oil. The direction of the closure of the market determined after data from the stocks - I think they are all the same will be sobering. According to background information, banks are preparing for another round of devaluation of the ruble and, consequently, they may need liquidity, focusing on the stock market. Jump up to the expensive oil gives the major players a good opportunity to withdraw without loss of securities and to enter the currency market.
Indicators of the state of the Russian stock market yesterday ended differently: RTS index rose by 0,79%, MICEX index fell by 0.58%. The volume of trades on the RTS amounted to $ 3.6 billion, of which term the market had $ 2.3 billion, the volume of trades on the MICEX Stock Exchange Section of 202.5 billion rubles, if you look at the turnover in the index, then 49, 9 billion.
The electricity sector is still in Tabor investors, besides namedni some investment companies have revised their forecasts for the sector upwards. The main driver - the next stage of liberalization. Personally for me the win in the short term from the transition to open market perception - the market price is below the regulated kilowatt rates. With regard to long-term prospects, it is also not clear and much depends on such factors as the recovery of demand from the industry (not that it will take V-shaped appearance), the introduction of new capacity (investment programs, there is no clarity to the still) emerging major consumer shift to its own generating capacity (for fear of price hikes, many businesses are building their own power), etc.
Europe
Indices of the Old World have increased on average by 0.5% due to economic statistics from Germany (I personally suggested to the statistics that goes past, do not pay attention), and a statement from Paul Krugman about the beginning of the end of a recession in the world economy this autumn. More than anything the other to justify the optimism I have not, well, if only to once again do not remember about the increase in the number of issued U.S. who burned their hands to their owners.
America
Indices of the New World in general, have increased by 0-1% against the backdrop of positive developments in the sector of high technology (mostly positive forecasts from Texas Instruments), and the news that the U.S. Treasury has authorized the return of ten banks, government loans. Again, you can remember about the previously mentioned statement by Paul Krugman on the near end of a recession.
Raw materials, currency, etc.
Industrial metals on the London bid again renewed the annual maxima (ie the dynamics of the composite index Exchange LME).
Gold soared to $ 960 on a background of falling U.S. dollar index value - investors are waiting for specific comments from the Fed about future monetary policy, even talk of a possible rate hike at the next meeting (held on 24 June). If you recall the Fed inaction and indecisiveness in the first half of 2007 and in mid-2008, when the stakes simply be kept at one level, I would not expect such a quick response agencies. Rather FOMC will again have to pull up to the last, and then begins a marathon with occasional jumps to 0.5 and 0.75 percentage points in overtime and the convening of extraordinary meetings.
Baltic Dry Index continued its correctional movement - the excitement surrounding the supply in China has fallen, and shipowners in the region podtyanuli additional tonnage than balanced supply of and demand for maritime transport.
Oil has updated an annual maximum: to mark WTI futures traded slightly above $ 70.75, Brent futures for the brand is just above $ 70.25 (ie contracts in July, August naturally higher - $ 71.5 and $ 71 respectively). Thank you for your growth should say EIA, which revised its forecast of average prices. If the EIA appeals to fundamental factors, the position of the agency is not quite clear: the commercial and strategic oil reserves in the world growing up, hang out on the tanker fleet in the seas as a floating oil (small amount, only 31.5 million barrels, but is growing all the time, t . f. dynamics seen), the OPEC quotas are not reduced - perhaps only Nigerian rebels did not give the oil to relax. But if the EIA is based on the direction of cash flow, all the logical - the mass of cheap dollars belly at all, without exception, a new speculative bubble markets.
Statistics and Reporting
At 12-30 (Moscow time), go on industrial production in the UK, 16-30 (Moscow time) published by the U.S. trade balance in the 18-30 (Moscow time) information on oil and petroleum products (I believe that the reserves will grow, but not sure that the quotations of oil futures will react to this fact, even the sake of decorum, too emotional and irrational to the market in recent times) in 22-00 (Moscow time) published «beige book» and balance the federal budget dollars.
Forecast
I look forward to the start of the trading on the Russian stock market to gap up on 1,5-2%, reflecting a positive external background and expensive oil. The direction of the closure of the market determined after data from the stocks - I think they are all the same will be sobering. According to background information, banks are preparing for another round of devaluation of the ruble and, consequently, they may need liquidity, focusing on the stock market. Jump up to the expensive oil gives the major players a good opportunity to withdraw without loss of securities and to enter the currency market.
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