Thursday, June 4, 2009

GC "Alor": Oil is not encouraging to start bidding

As a result of yesterday's session, Russia's major indexes lost a significant portion of the conquered in the week won. As a result, the RTS index again surpassed the MICEX index, and indexes defined for a level of support in the region of 1100 points. Outside the background before the start of today's auction is to continue selling at the opening session. Major U.S. indexes after the closure of trampling on the ground and did not change its meaning, but the positive is a technical signal - the closure of S & P 500 above the level of support for 930 points. Dramatically - a negative factor is the maintenance cost of oil by 2% down, and will play at the opening session. A significant reduction in the areas of emerging markets, in particular, the loss of the Brazilian Bovespa more than 3%, is also a negative signal. Further evolution will be determined by external signals. In the event of a change of sentiment in the futures on the U.S. indices, which before the opening of bidding are at the zeros (in particular, S & P continues to consolidate at 930 points), the positive is likely a strong wave of purchases, as yesterday's decline partially withdrawn factor perekuplennosti, taken a majority stake to the nearest levels of support.

Mass of macroeconomic statistics, too, will make his case. Particular attention is paid to data on retail sales in the euro area and the traditional data applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. The outcome of the meeting the ECB will play in the foreign exchange market, which is currently the euro continues to change against the U.S. dollar, which adversely affect the commodity market.

Technically, the indexes identified prior levels of support, thus indicating the lower range of the lateral trend, which may occur in the Russian market in the absence of signals for traffic in one direction or another. If the negative signals in the first place - with the commodity market, the indexes can penetrate the levels of support in the region of 1100 points. In this case, the nearest support for the index of the MICEX, which can be tested now, will the level of 1080 points, while downstream of Perforation which likely revert to the level of 38,2%-term correction of Fibonacci (1055 points).

U.S. indexes on the basis of the trading day yesterday, fell after four consecutive positive sessions. Negative was driven by both macroeconomic statistics, in the first place - on the housing market, and pessimistic sentiments with commodity platforms. Favorites recent sessions - shares of commodity companies - the day before were among the outsiders. Have not gone unnoticed and the heads of the Fed statement by B. Bernanke, who said that the Government can not continue «infinite» to increase borrowing to meet the growing demand for its resources, and called on lawmakers to reduce the budget deficit, which is approaching $ 2 trillion dollars.

During the evening session on FORTS value of most contracts for oil and gas stocks declined. Among the outsiders - and the contract for the shares of «Gazprom», which lost 1.94%. At the opening of a majority of shares «neftyanki» will take in the negative zone otygryvaya sharp decline in crude oil quotations eve. The negative signals and continue to come from the primary market. Thus, the price of Brent crude oil marks left by the level of support for $ 66 a barrel. Technically, the majority of the securities closed at the level of support that are likely to be holes at the opening session. Promotions «Rosneft», closed near the level of 200 rubles., At the opening can test the strength of support in the region of 10-day moving average, lying at the level of 197 rubles., Which is likely a technical rebound upwards.

Shares of banking sector at the opening of tenders will also continue the movement down, which is partly confirmed by the dramatic - the negative sentiment in the evening session on FORTS, where contracts on shares of banks has lost value. Thus, the contract for shares of Sberbank fell by 4.66%. But do not forget about the presence in the shares of financial institutions to large investors. It is possible that the decline in the morning will instantly redeemed. In this case, fix the lucrative position.

No comments: