On Wednesday, the Russian stock market could not resist at the tops of the beginning of the year, easily lost almost all of the advantage which had been accumulated since the beginning of the week.
MICEX Index has failed by 7.5% to 1109.21 points. RTS Index closed at 1127.57 points, down by 4.5%. Futures on the index went into a confident bekvordatsiyu (-20.1 points). Trading volume decreased, but much higher than the average for the last time value. At the end of the day was formed by turning under formation analysis of combinations of Japanese candles, which may indicate the formation of peaks and further downward movement.
On Wednesday, in contrast to the previous day's struggle to preserve the «place in the sun» is not complicated. Ended the previous day failed attempts Index S & P 500 in anticipation of the publication of data from the labor market to overcome the significant level at 950 points weakened forces «bulls», forcing futures on U.S. indices decline all subsequent days. Against this backdrop, the waning appetite for risk returned to the soil under your feet resold to the main competitors the U.S. dollar, which was to provide downward pressure to oil prices, which, after six days is also not redundant would be a correction. The Russian stock market, receiving such strong signals from outside markets, no longer clinging to reach the level went down the track a short-term trend is accelerating upwards.
You may have increased to some extent the process of sale customers Citi, experts who have reviewed the prospects of a radical Russian stock market, reducing the rating of "above market" to "below market". The main motive for their decision were the significant achievements of the market since the beginning of the year against the backdrop of yet not received until the signal of economic recovery of Russia from its bottom in an environment where oil prices, may have potential for further growth. It should be noted that in the past a number of major Western players who can set the rhythm of the markets, it is suggested that the Russian stock market at the moment is overheating.
Perhaps, as in the Russian stock market a big share of the market followed a similar view, with the alertness monitoring the situation on the oil market, where prices are already close to $ 70/barr class of WTI, a discrepancy between the positive expectations, and statistical data and is not thought to disappear. Published on Wednesday at the beginning of the API, and then from the Ministry of Energy data on U.S. oil and petroleum products, which showed that demand remains weak, in general, confirmed this idea. Against the backdrop of the strengthening dollar, these figures dropped the price of WTI crude oil on the class with $ 68.6/barr. to $ 67/barr., in many ways define the vector of the Russian stock market.
The decline of western stock markets, which entered the phase of correction, despite not prepodnesshuyu any surprises statistics from the UK and the eurozone, which points to a fracture of market sentiment, also made a contribution. The impetus to growth at the MICEX index rather quickly dried up, and pretty soon was passed down the line a neck formed at the time schedule formations «head-shoulders», coupled with the realization that the divergence of the oscillator spilled onto the market with additional sales «technicians».
Just after midday the market was able to stabilize the dynamics close to 1150 points on the MICEX index, but the latest statistics from the United States has buried hopes for the emerging rebound.
Initially, ADP reported a greater reduction of jobs in the private sector (-532 thousand) than expected (-500 thousand). In the future, predictions were worse indicator of industrial orders prompredpriyaty and the ISM index of optimism in the services sector (44%, with expectations of 45%). Position's done rout «bulls» Fedrezerva his speech the head of Ben Bernanke, who pointed to the significant U.S. budget deficit that will force the U.S. government «tighten belts», or suffer financial stability. This is the chance of worsening conditions in financial markets has market participants perceived negatively, that has a greater effect than a repetition, Mr. Bernanke is a forecast that the U.S. economy begins its recovery by the end of the year. In combination, these listed factors have contributed to the resumption of the Russian stock market decline and the closure of the day at the minimum point.
The greatest losses suffered banking sector (Micex FNL -8.49%), led by shares of Sberbank (obyk. -11.63%, attract. - 12.51%). Shares VTB (-9.9%) to slightly less than the cheaper way.
Also, changes in market sentiment to a greater impact on oil and gas (Micex O & G -7.11%) and metallurgy (Micex M & M -6.05%) sectors. Relatively stable felt shares of telecommunications companies (Micex TLC -4.19%) and energy companies market segment (Micex PWR -2.11%).
From corporate history is worth noting the publication of a quarterly reporting Lukoil for the I quarter of 2009 on standards US GAAP, which came out a few less-consensus forecast and significant impact on the dynamics of shares of Lukoil, declined in value at 6.31%, did not have. Paper Gazprom oil (-2.45%), information about consolidation has 28.49% stake in Sibir Energy, by contrast, has helped to show better than that of industry rivals, and the result.
Looking at today's market:
The index of wide market S & P 500 (-1. 37%) after the previous day had not been able to overcome the resistance of 950 points, closed in the negative region. In addition to this technical point for fixing profits after the previous four days of growth and were fundamental factors. Data on orders prompredpriyaty and business optimism in the service sector were worse than forecasts. Statistics on job creation in the private sector of the ADP has forced market participants adjust to the negative mood in relation to the forthcoming publication of official data from the already Mintruda. Ben Bernanke, who said that the U.S. government in the context of increased rates on the debt market will be forced to temper the appetite for new borrowing, otherwise it could undermine financial stability, also brought a negative notes.
Following the closure of the trading in U.S. futures on the U.S. indices (S & P 500 -0.1%) continued to decline, which had stunted the progress of the trading in Asia. In addition to the negative closing on Wall Street combined index of stock markets in the region MSCI Asia Pacific (-2%) reacts badly to the negative momentum in the commodity markets. Oil prices are from the closure of the Russian stock market for WTI class failed to turn in $ 65/barr. Morning stabilized slightly above $ 66/barr. Similar scenario can be seen in the graphs and industrial metals.
The Russian stock market in such circumstances will be opened with the price break down about 1%. The morning can be expected to save the movement down to 1090 points on the MICEX index, where the acceleration of the medium-term trend line is up where you can expect the emergence of attempts to form a technical rebound upwards. Also, support may come up blank gap in the 1082-1083 points. Within days of the dynamics of the market will determine the macroeconomic data, which is scheduled on Thursday, a lot. In the 13-00 MSK are known for retail sales in the euro zone, in 15-00 Moscow time on the level of interest rates, Bank of England announced in 15-45 on a similar decision -- ECB. At 16-30 Moscow time data will be published on applications for unemployment benefits and labor productivity in the United States. At the same time to begin a press conference chapter EBTS JC Trichet, 15 minutes later the head of the Fed Ben Bernanke will open the conference the U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington. Trichet hints at the intended softening of monetary policy, a reduction in ECB rates by 25 basis points that would not meet expectations, could trigger further consolidation of the dollar, falling oil prices and the weakness of the Russian stock market.
In general, based on the development of the situation, from those earlier levels (1090 points on the MICEX index) can think about pereotkrytii long positions by a foot, since it is possible that at these levels and the correction is over. If the level of 1090 points on the MICEX index does not deal with the role of support, the movement can take down to 1050-1060 points, or by 950 points, which will be a line of medium-term ascending trendline.
MICEX Index has failed by 7.5% to 1109.21 points. RTS Index closed at 1127.57 points, down by 4.5%. Futures on the index went into a confident bekvordatsiyu (-20.1 points). Trading volume decreased, but much higher than the average for the last time value. At the end of the day was formed by turning under formation analysis of combinations of Japanese candles, which may indicate the formation of peaks and further downward movement.
On Wednesday, in contrast to the previous day's struggle to preserve the «place in the sun» is not complicated. Ended the previous day failed attempts Index S & P 500 in anticipation of the publication of data from the labor market to overcome the significant level at 950 points weakened forces «bulls», forcing futures on U.S. indices decline all subsequent days. Against this backdrop, the waning appetite for risk returned to the soil under your feet resold to the main competitors the U.S. dollar, which was to provide downward pressure to oil prices, which, after six days is also not redundant would be a correction. The Russian stock market, receiving such strong signals from outside markets, no longer clinging to reach the level went down the track a short-term trend is accelerating upwards.
You may have increased to some extent the process of sale customers Citi, experts who have reviewed the prospects of a radical Russian stock market, reducing the rating of "above market" to "below market". The main motive for their decision were the significant achievements of the market since the beginning of the year against the backdrop of yet not received until the signal of economic recovery of Russia from its bottom in an environment where oil prices, may have potential for further growth. It should be noted that in the past a number of major Western players who can set the rhythm of the markets, it is suggested that the Russian stock market at the moment is overheating.
Perhaps, as in the Russian stock market a big share of the market followed a similar view, with the alertness monitoring the situation on the oil market, where prices are already close to $ 70/barr class of WTI, a discrepancy between the positive expectations, and statistical data and is not thought to disappear. Published on Wednesday at the beginning of the API, and then from the Ministry of Energy data on U.S. oil and petroleum products, which showed that demand remains weak, in general, confirmed this idea. Against the backdrop of the strengthening dollar, these figures dropped the price of WTI crude oil on the class with $ 68.6/barr. to $ 67/barr., in many ways define the vector of the Russian stock market.
The decline of western stock markets, which entered the phase of correction, despite not prepodnesshuyu any surprises statistics from the UK and the eurozone, which points to a fracture of market sentiment, also made a contribution. The impetus to growth at the MICEX index rather quickly dried up, and pretty soon was passed down the line a neck formed at the time schedule formations «head-shoulders», coupled with the realization that the divergence of the oscillator spilled onto the market with additional sales «technicians».
Just after midday the market was able to stabilize the dynamics close to 1150 points on the MICEX index, but the latest statistics from the United States has buried hopes for the emerging rebound.
Initially, ADP reported a greater reduction of jobs in the private sector (-532 thousand) than expected (-500 thousand). In the future, predictions were worse indicator of industrial orders prompredpriyaty and the ISM index of optimism in the services sector (44%, with expectations of 45%). Position's done rout «bulls» Fedrezerva his speech the head of Ben Bernanke, who pointed to the significant U.S. budget deficit that will force the U.S. government «tighten belts», or suffer financial stability. This is the chance of worsening conditions in financial markets has market participants perceived negatively, that has a greater effect than a repetition, Mr. Bernanke is a forecast that the U.S. economy begins its recovery by the end of the year. In combination, these listed factors have contributed to the resumption of the Russian stock market decline and the closure of the day at the minimum point.
The greatest losses suffered banking sector (Micex FNL -8.49%), led by shares of Sberbank (obyk. -11.63%, attract. - 12.51%). Shares VTB (-9.9%) to slightly less than the cheaper way.
Also, changes in market sentiment to a greater impact on oil and gas (Micex O & G -7.11%) and metallurgy (Micex M & M -6.05%) sectors. Relatively stable felt shares of telecommunications companies (Micex TLC -4.19%) and energy companies market segment (Micex PWR -2.11%).
From corporate history is worth noting the publication of a quarterly reporting Lukoil for the I quarter of 2009 on standards US GAAP, which came out a few less-consensus forecast and significant impact on the dynamics of shares of Lukoil, declined in value at 6.31%, did not have. Paper Gazprom oil (-2.45%), information about consolidation has 28.49% stake in Sibir Energy, by contrast, has helped to show better than that of industry rivals, and the result.
Looking at today's market:
The index of wide market S & P 500 (-1. 37%) after the previous day had not been able to overcome the resistance of 950 points, closed in the negative region. In addition to this technical point for fixing profits after the previous four days of growth and were fundamental factors. Data on orders prompredpriyaty and business optimism in the service sector were worse than forecasts. Statistics on job creation in the private sector of the ADP has forced market participants adjust to the negative mood in relation to the forthcoming publication of official data from the already Mintruda. Ben Bernanke, who said that the U.S. government in the context of increased rates on the debt market will be forced to temper the appetite for new borrowing, otherwise it could undermine financial stability, also brought a negative notes.
Following the closure of the trading in U.S. futures on the U.S. indices (S & P 500 -0.1%) continued to decline, which had stunted the progress of the trading in Asia. In addition to the negative closing on Wall Street combined index of stock markets in the region MSCI Asia Pacific (-2%) reacts badly to the negative momentum in the commodity markets. Oil prices are from the closure of the Russian stock market for WTI class failed to turn in $ 65/barr. Morning stabilized slightly above $ 66/barr. Similar scenario can be seen in the graphs and industrial metals.
The Russian stock market in such circumstances will be opened with the price break down about 1%. The morning can be expected to save the movement down to 1090 points on the MICEX index, where the acceleration of the medium-term trend line is up where you can expect the emergence of attempts to form a technical rebound upwards. Also, support may come up blank gap in the 1082-1083 points. Within days of the dynamics of the market will determine the macroeconomic data, which is scheduled on Thursday, a lot. In the 13-00 MSK are known for retail sales in the euro zone, in 15-00 Moscow time on the level of interest rates, Bank of England announced in 15-45 on a similar decision -- ECB. At 16-30 Moscow time data will be published on applications for unemployment benefits and labor productivity in the United States. At the same time to begin a press conference chapter EBTS JC Trichet, 15 minutes later the head of the Fed Ben Bernanke will open the conference the U.S. Federal Reserve in Washington. Trichet hints at the intended softening of monetary policy, a reduction in ECB rates by 25 basis points that would not meet expectations, could trigger further consolidation of the dollar, falling oil prices and the weakness of the Russian stock market.
In general, based on the development of the situation, from those earlier levels (1090 points on the MICEX index) can think about pereotkrytii long positions by a foot, since it is possible that at these levels and the correction is over. If the level of 1090 points on the MICEX index does not deal with the role of support, the movement can take down to 1050-1060 points, or by 950 points, which will be a line of medium-term ascending trendline.
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